中国航运和港口业季度评论：BDI快速下跌,集装箱航运形势相对较好

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 12 Sector CommentChina & HK Shipping & Port Industry Quarterly In the last quarter of 2010, China’s foreign trade grew strongly YoY. As for shipping industry, container shipping market was stable while bulk shipping market was facing cold winter. As for port industry, China’s container throughput in 4Q2010 increased YoY but decreased slighy QoQ. We have revised down our earnings forecast for bulk shipping companies. China’s foreign trade grew strongly YoY in 4Q2010. In the quarter, China’s foreign trade increased YoY and QoQ. China imported iron ore 161 million tons, slightly up 2% YoY. It imported crude oil 58 million tons, slightly up 1% YoY. The freight rate performance: HRCI was stable while BDI slumped. In 4Q2010, HRCI, a container freight index, was still stable. However, BDI slumped to about 1600 point at the end of 2010, due to weak demand and Australian flood. China’s container throughput decreased QoQ slightly in 4Q2010. Container throughputs of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong decreased differently QoQ but all increased YoY in 4Q2010. We believe China’s container throughput in 2010 would rise 19% YoY. CIMC’s container sales decreased QoQ in 4Q2010. CIMC is the biggest container manufacturer in the world. We estimate it made 400 thousand TEU dry containers in 4Q2010, decreased QoQ but was still better than previous expectation. Earnings forecast revision. We have revised down our earnings forecast for bulk shipping companies, based on awful 4Q2010. However, we maintain “Buy” for China COSCO, China Shipping Dev and Sinotrans Shipping, due to their attractive valuations. Valuation table Company Share price Market CapRating Target priceCurrency PB(x) PE (x) (HK$) (HK$m) (HK$) 2009E 2010E2009E2010EChina COSCO 8.83 90,210 Buy 10.90RMB 1.6 1.5 --China Shipping Dev 9.89 33,671 Buy 15.00RMB 1.3 1.2 --Sinotrans Shipping 2.91 11,617 Buy 4.10US$ 0.7 0.7 --CSCL 3.74 43,695 Neutral 4.00RMB 1.3 1.1 --OOIL 79.70 49,876 Neutral 87.00US$ 1.2 1.1 --China Merchants Hold 31.70 77,118Outperform35.00 HK$ - -1816COSCO Pacific 14.86 40,293Neutral 15.70 US$ - -1513Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates, based on latest share prices Overweight (Prior: Overweight ) China Merchants Securities (HK) Yu Huangyan 86-755-83143907 yuhuangyan@cmschina.com.cn 25 Jan 2011 HSI Index 23788HSCEI Index 12562Sector information No. of listed stocks Market cap（HK$bn） Sector performance %1m6m12mAbsolute return -32737Relative return -81420 -2 00204060Jan-10Jun-10Oct-10(%)HSCIIN IndexHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Container shipping performed well while BDI slumped Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 12 行业报告中国航运和港口业季度评论 2010年第四季度进出口总额增长强劲，中国的出口总额和进口总额同比和环比均实现增长。航运业方面，BDI指数在2010年第四季度大幅下挫，而国际集装箱运价仍然坚挺。港口业方面，中国第四季度港口集装箱吞吐量同比增长，环比略有下降。我们下调了散货航运公司的盈利预测。 2010年第四季度中国的进出口总额增长强劲 2010年第四季度，中国的出口总额和进口总额同比和环比均实现增长。2010年第四季度中国进口铁矿石1.61亿吨，同比基本没有增长，但环比略有增长；进口原油0.58亿吨，同比基本没有增长，环比略有下降。 航运运价：BDI大幅下挫，集装箱运价处于高位 2010年第四季度，BDI大幅下挫，从2700点左右跌至目前的1400点左右。中国对铁矿石进口需求不旺和澳大利亚煤炭出口受水灾影响等因素导致BDI疲弱。HRCI先跌后涨，总体仍然处于2010年9月以来的高位。 2010年第四季度中国港口集装箱吞吐量环比略下降 我们初步估计，2010年年中国港口集装箱吞吐量为1.46亿TEU，比2009年增长19%。第四季度集装箱吞吐量估计略低于第三季度。 2010年第四季度中集集团集装箱销量较高 根据中集集团的盈利预告，2010年第四季度干货集装箱销量较高。我们估计2010年第四季度干货箱销量为40万TEU，全年该公司干货集装箱销量估计为132万TEU。 盈利预测调整 我们下调了散货航运公司的盈利预测。但目前散货航运公司目前股价较低，2011年内存在反弹机会，因此对三家散货航运公司评级为“买入”。 香港市场航运公司和港口公司估值表 股票简称 股价 (HK$) 总市值 评级 目标价 币种 经常性EPS PB(x) PE(x) (HK$m) (HK$) 2010E2011E2010E2012010E 2011E中国远洋 8.83 90,210 买入 10.90RMB0.55 0.45 1.6 1.5 - -中海发展 9.89 33,671 买入 15.00RMB0.44 0.51 1.3 1.2 - -中外运航运 2.91 11,617 买入 4.10US$ 0.03 0.03 0.7 0.7 - -中海集运 3.74 43,695 中性 4.00RMB0.34 0.33 1.3