中国石油(00857)：中期业绩无惊喜,采购成本居高不下

P. 1 PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH輝立証券研究部輝立証券研究部輝立証券研究部輝立証券研究部 Hong Kong Sept 14, 2010 中国石油天然气股份有限公司中国石油天然气股份有限公司中国石油天然气股份有限公司中国石油天然气股份有限公司 (857.HK) -- 中期業績無驚喜中期業績無驚喜中期業績無驚喜中期業績無驚喜，，，，採購成本居高不下採購成本居高不下採購成本居高不下採購成本居高不下 概要概要概要概要
根據中石油的中期業績根據中石油的中期業績根據中石油的中期業績根據中石油的中期業績，，，，營業額達人民幣營業額達人民幣營業額達人民幣營業額達人民幣684,797684,797684,797684,797 百萬元百萬元百萬元百萬元 ，，，，按按按按年上升年上升年上升年上升 64.9%64.9%64.9%64.9%；；；；此 乃 主 要 由 於 實 現 油 價 與 交 易 量 提 高。 營 運 利 潤 及 淨 利 潤 分 別 按 年 上 升34.75%以及35.34%。增長於2010 上半年維持強勁，但 2010 年第二季度的增長明顯較2010 年第一季度的慢。營業額按季上升14.81%但營運利潤及淨利潤則分別顯示按季下降0.37%以及1.13%。
總油當量達總油當量達總油當量達總油當量達616.9616.9616.9616.9 百萬桶百萬桶百萬桶百萬桶 ，，，，按年上升按年上升按年上升按年上升4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%，，，，部份由於部份由於部份由於部份由於2009200920092009 上半年的低基數所上半年的低基數所上半年的低基數所上半年的低基數所影響影響影響影響。。。。 原油產量錄得 424.7 百萬桶，按年上升1.7%；而天然氣產量達11530億立方英尺，按年上升12.9%。實現油價及天然氣價格分別按年增長62.1% 同6.2%。 雖然天然氣的收入有按年上升51%，達到人民幣52945 百萬元，該數值仍只佔總收入的7.73%，甚至較2009 年 7.96%的比例仍為低。 Ida Cheng Research Analyst
(852) 2277-6787 FAX (852) 2868-5307 idacheng@phillip.com.hk 建議建議建議建議: 持有持有持有持有 股價股價股價股價 建議日之股價建議日之股價建議日之股價建議日之股價 HK$ 8.65 建議買入價建議買入價建議買入價建議買入價 N/A 目標價目標價目標價目標價 HK$ 8.99
資本開支達到其全年預期的資本開支達到其全年預期的資本開支達到其全年預期的資本開支達到其全年預期的29% 29% 29% 29% 總資本開支達人民幣46140 百萬元，按年上升 12.1%，但只完成了全年預期的29%。管理層仍對2010 下半年的展望表示樂觀，亦預期沒有任何對資本開支的下調。 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd. PetroChina (857.HK) Sept 14, 2010 P. 2 Table 1: Quarter data at a glance 1Q092Q091Q102Q102QYoYQoQTurnover181,965233,312318,79536600256.87%14.81%Op expenses Purchases, services and other(77,627) (103,290) (163,279)(199250)92.90%22.03% Employee compensation (14,916)(15,658)(17,483)(20221)29.14%15.66% Exploration(5,107)(6,000)(7,254)(8555)42.58%17.93% Depreciation(20,918)(21,941)(27,446)(28406)29.47%3.50% Selling,general and admin(12,326)(14,701)(16,138)(17975)22.27%11.38% Taxes other than income taxes(24,756)(31,971)(42,519)(46675)45.99%9.77% Other income, net91(157)(127)(534)240.13%320.47%Total op expenses(155,559)(193,718)(274,246)(321616)66.02%17.27%Profit from op26,40639,59444,5494438612.10%-0.37%Finance costs Ex gain18382331597628.05%80.36% Ex loss(955)(148)(816)(314)112.16%-61.52% Interest income268236402591150.42%47.01% Interest expense(1,294)(1,257)(1,770)(1748)39.06%-1.24%Tot finance costs(1,798)(1,087)(1,853)(874)-19.60%-52.83%Share of profit of associates and jointly controlled entities596801,875565-16.91%-69.87%Profit before income tax24,66739,18744,5714407712.48%-1.11%Income tax(5,766)(6,044)(9,152)(9058)49.87%-1.03%Profit for the year18,90133,14335,419350195.66%-1.13%Other comprehensive income, net of tax(2,929)(988)1,017(580)-41.30% -157.03%Tot comprehensive income for the period15,97232,15536,436344397.10%-5.48%Profit attributable to Owners of the company18,97431,52732,492328384.16%1.06% Non-controlling interest(73)1,6162,927218134.96%-25.49%Tot comprehensive income attributable to Owners of the company17,53431,03833,394322533.91%-3.42% Non-controlling interest(1,562)1,1173,042218695.70%-28.14%Basic earning per share0.100.18 0.180.180.00%0.00% Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd. PetroChina (857.HK) Sept 14, 2010 P. 3 Table 2: Interim data at a glance
催化劑催化劑催化劑催化劑 及關注點及關注點及關注點及關注點 根據管理層所指，第二期西氣東輸天然氣管道的東段建造工程已獲加快。另一方面，中石油於國內煉油市場有主要風險，因煉油的利潤率於2010 下半年預期並不會大幅改善。同時，中石油有超過500，000 員工；因此，上漲的勞動成本令人擔憂。以成本控制來說，採購成本維持高企，甚至於2010 下半年進一步上升，對毛利率有損。 1H092H091H10YoYHoHTurnover41527760399868479764.90%13.38%Op expenses Purchases, services and other(180917)(311555)(362529)100.38%16.36% Employee compensation (30574)(35403)(37704)23.32%6.50% Exploration(11107)(8291)(15809)42.33%90.68% Depreciation(42859)(49400)(55852)30.32%13.06% Selling,general and admin(27027)(38396)(34113)26.22%-11.15% Taxes other than income taxes(56727)(78738)(89194)57.23%13.28% Other income, net(66)(4807)(661)901.52%-86.25%Total op expenses(349277)(526554)(595862)70.60%13.16%Profit from op66000774448893534.75%14.84%Finance costs Ex gain265287928250.19%223.34% Ex loss(1103)(232)(1130)2.45%387.07% Interest income50495599397.02%3.98% Interest expense(2551)(2721)(3518)37.91%29.29%Tot finance costs(2885)(1711)(2727)-5.48%59.38%Share of profit of associates and jointly controlled entities7394452440230.18%448.31%Profit before income tax63854761788864838.83%16.37%Income tax(11810)(21663)(18210)54.19%-15.94%Profit for the year52044545157043835.34%29.21%10655949%Other comprehensive income, net of tax(3917)570437-111.16%-23.33%Tot comprehensive income for the period48127550857087547.27%28.66%Profit attributable to Owners of the company50501528866533029.36%23.53% Non-controlling interest154316295108231.04%213.57%Tot comprehensive income attributable to Owners of the company48572534956564735.15%22.72% Non-controlling interest(445)15905228-1274.83%228.81%Basic earning per share0.280.280.3628.57%28.57% Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd. PetroChina (857.HK) Sept 14, 2010