GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 China Railway Group 中国中铁 (00390 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 5 Company Report: China Railway Group (00390 HK) 中文版 Gary Wong 黃家瑋公司报告：中国中铁 (00390 HK) Chinese version +852 2509 2616gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk 13 June 2014 Value of Other Businesses being Neglected, Maintain “Accumulate” 其它业务价值受忽略,维持“收集”评级 z China Railway Group (00390 HK)’s FY13 revenue increased 26.8% YoY to RMB540.4 billion. Net profit increased 16.1% YoY to RMB9.4 billion, in line with expectation. Gross margin declined 0.1 ppts YoY to 7.5%. In FY13, the Company received RMB929.7 billion of new contracts, up 27.2% YoY. As at 31 December 2013, the Company had RMB1,715.3 billion of backlog, up 31.6% YoY. z We expect railway infrastructure construction revenue growth to remain high in the next 2 years due a substantial increase in railway investment spending. In addition, current urban rail traffic operation mileage is far behind the 2015 and 2020 targets, and urban rail traffic infrastructure construction should remain a long-term growth driver for the Company. We think the Company’s other businesses performed quite well in FY13, contributing nearly 25% of total net profit. This segment’s value is neglected by the market. z Reduce EPS estimates of FY14-15 by 7.8% and 4.4%, respectively, to RMB0.506 and RMB0.588, and initiate FY16 EPS estimate at RMB0.595. We think the Company deserves a slightly higher valuation compared with CRC (01186 HK) with a more balanced portfolio of businesses. We set TP at HKD4.90, or 7.6x/6.5x/6.4x FY14/15/16 PER. Maintain “Accumulate”. z 中国中铁(00390 HK)13年收入同比增26.8%至5,404亿元(人民币,下同)。纯利同比增16.1%,与预期一致。毛利率同比下跌0.1个百分点至7.5%。13年度新签合同总额为9,297亿元,同比增27.2%。截至2013年12月31日,公司未完成合同总额为17,153亿元,同比增31.6%。 z 我们预计铁路基建收入增长将于未来2年维持较高水平,因铁路投资额大增。另外,以现时城市轨道交通的通车里程远落后于2015及2020年目标的情况下,城轨的基建建设将会长期成为公司的增长动力。公司其它业务于13年的经营不俗,贡献了25%的纯利。这个分部的价值受到市场的忽略。 z 调低14-15年的每股盈利预测7.8%及4.4%至0.506元及0.588元,以及首次提供16年每股盈利预测0.595元。我们认为公司较中国铁建(01186 HK)拥有较平衡的业务,应值略高的估值。我们定目标价为4.90港元,或7.6/6.5/6.4倍的14/15/16年预期市盈率。维持“收集”评级。 Rating: Accumulate Maintained 评级： 收集 (维持)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$4.90Revised from 原目标价: HK$5.23 Share price 股价： HK$3.790 Stock performance 股价表现 (25.0)(20.0)(15.0)(10.0)(5.0)0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Jun- 13Sep- 13Dec- 13M ar - 14Jun- 14% of returnHSI IndexCHINA RAILWAY GROUP LTD-H Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % (0.5) 24.2 1.3 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % (4.5) 18.5 (7.1) Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 3.7 3.6 3.9 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%)2012A 465,626 7,390 0.347 10.5 8.8 4.131 0.7 0.052 1.7 9.8 2013A 540,394 9,374 0.440 26.8 6.8 4.537 0.7 0.066 2.2 11.4 2014F 612,528 10,776 0.506 15.0 5.9 4.993 0.6 0.076 2.6 11.8 2015F 669,640 12,518 0.588 16.2 5.1 5.523 0.5 0.088 3.0 12.4 2016F 682,142 12,677 0.595 1.3 5.0 6.041 0.5 0.089 3.0 11.4 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 21,299.9 Major shareholder 大股东 CRECG 56.1%Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 70,241.3 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 33.93 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 19,419.1 FY14 Net gearing (%) FY14净负债/股东资金 (%) 131.752 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 4.690 / 2.990 FY13-16 EPS CAGR 13-16年每股盈利複合年增長率 10.6% Source︰the Company, Guotai Junan International 13 June 2014 China Railway Group 中国中铁 (00390 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 5 2013年净利润同比增26.8%至人民币94亿元，与预期一致。中国中铁(00390 HK)2013年收入同比增16.1%至人民币5,404亿元。净利润同比增长26.8%至人民币94亿元，符合预期。毛利率同比下跌0.1个百分点至7.5%。2013年新签合同总额为9,297亿元,同比增27.2%。其中基建业务的新签合同同