GTJA Research国泰君安研究Beijing Enterprises Water北控水务(00371 HK))Company ReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of23Company Report:Beijing Enterprises Water(00371 HK)Gary Wong黄家玮公司报告：北控水务(00371 HK)+852 2509 6616gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk13 May 2014Leader in Water Service Industry in the PRC, Initiate with“Accumulate”中国水务行业领袖,首次给予“收集”评级Per capita water resources decreased from 2,194 m3in 2000 to2,181m3in2012in China.According to the Twelfth Fiver-Year Plan, the Governmentwillinvest RMB410 billion inurbanwater supply facilities and anotherRMB429.8 billioninurbansewage treatment facilities.BEWG (00371 HK, “the Company”) is one of the largest water servicescompanies in China, and is the water services flagship of BEHL (00392HK).The Company’s businesses include sewage treatment,water plantsconstruction services, water distribution services and technical services.Asat31stDecember2013,the Company had 282water plants with a totaldesign capacity of16,708,150tons/day.We expect the Company’s revenue to increase from HKD6,406million inFY13to HKD11,309million in FY16witha CAGR of20.9%. Gross marginshouldincreasefrom39.1% in FY13to42.2% in FY16.Net profit shouldincrease from HKD1,084 million in FY13to HKD2,160 million in FY16witha CAGR of25.8%.Initiate the EPS estimates of FY14-16atHKD0.177,HKD0.214andHKD0.250respectively, or FY13-16 EPS CAGR of 22.1%. We apply 1.5xPEG to value the Company at HKD5.66, representing 32.0x/26.4x/22.4xFY14/15/16PER.Main risks aredifficulty inadjustingtariff andpossibledelaysin repaymentfor receivables by local governments.中国人均水资源量从2000年的2,194立方米下跌至2012年的2,181立方米。根据十二五规划,政府将投资4,100亿元人民币于城镇供水设施,以及4,298亿元于城镇污水理设施。北控水务(00371 HK,“公司”)是中国其中一个最大的水务公司,亦是北京控股(00392 HK)于水务行业的旗舰。公司的业务包括污水处理、水厂建造、供水服务及提供技术服务。截至2013年12月31日,公司拥有282座水厂,其总计产能为16,708,150吨/日。我们预计公司营收将会从13年的64.06亿港元增至16年的113.09亿元,或20.9%的年复合增长。我们预计毛利率将会从13年的39.1%增至16年的42.2%。我们预计公司纯利将会从13年的10.84亿港元增至15年的21.60亿港元,或25.8%的年复合增长。我们首次提供14-16年每股盈利预测分别为0.177港元、0.214港元及0.250港元,或22.1%的13-16年复合增长率。我们以1.5倍的市盈增长率定下公司目标价为5.66港元,对应32.0倍/26.4倍/22.4倍的14/15/16年预期市盈率。其主要风险为水价难以调整,以及地方政府的应收款延迟回收。Rating:AccumulateInitial评级：收集(首次研究)6-18m TP目标价:HK$5.66Revised from原目标价:HK$n.a.Share price股价：HK$4.440Stock performance股价表现(40.0)(20.0)0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0May-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14% of returnHSI IndexBEIJING ENTERPRISES WATER GRChange in Share Price股价变动1 M1个月3 M3个月1 Y1年Abs. %绝对变动%(11.6)8.993.9Rel. % to HS index相对恒指变动%(10.8)7.896.0Avg.share price(HK$)平均股价（港元）5.25.13.9Sour ce:Blo omb erg,Guot aiJu nanInternationalYear End年结Turnover收入Net Profit股东净利EPS每股净利EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS每股股息Yield股息率ROE净资产收益率12/31(HKDm)(HKDm)(HKD)(△%)(x)(HKD)(x)(RMB)(%)(%)2012A3,7277500.10921.542.81.2253.80.0400.99.12013A6,4061,0840.14028.733.31.5762.90.0521.110.02014F8,2571,5310.17726.526.31.7232.90.0601.310.92015F9,8461,8490.21420.821.81.9382.70.0701.511.72016F11,3092,1600.25016.818.62.1892.40.0801.712.2Shares in issue (m)总股数(m)8,655.5Major shareholder大股东BEHL44.2%Market cap. (HK$ m)市值(HK$ m)41,460.4Free float (%)自由流通比率(%)55.83 month average vol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000)29,535.6FY14Net gearing(%)FY14净负债/股东资金(%)183.152 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低5.800 /2.320FY13-16EPSCAGR 13-16年每股盈利复合年增长率22.1%Source︰the Company, Guotai JunanInternational. 13May 2014Beijing Enterprises Water北控水务(00371 HK))Company ReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of23Industry AnalysisChina Water Resources: A ReviewBoth total water resources volume and per capita water resources were decreasing, while water supply(usage) wasgrowing.According to National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) and Ministry of Water and Irrigation (NWR), per capitawater resourcesfor 2012 was even lower than that for 2000, down from 2,194 m3respectively in 2000 to2,181m3in 2012,down0.6%during past 12years. However,per capitawater supply (usage) had been increasing, up from438m3in 2000 to453m3in 2012, or up3.4%.This implieda tight supply of and afast depletion of water resources.Fig 1:China Water ResourcesFig 2: Sources of Water Supply in China05001,0001,5002,0002,50005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012Per Capita (m3 / capita)Total Water Resources ('000 million m3)-Axis L01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012Above Ground WaterUnderground WaterOthers'000million m3Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China, MOEP.Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China, MOEP.Agriculture was the biggest water consumer; household consumption grew the fastest.In 2012, agricultureconsumed390.3billion m3of water, or63.6% of total consumption. In addition, household consumption, although only accounted for12.1% of total consumption, grew the fastest with CAGR of 2.1% during 2000-2012, higher than that of industry at1.6%. Notethat thewater consumption annual growths were more stable in household sector compared with thoseinindustry