GTJA Research国泰君安研究ChinaEverbright International中国光大国际(00257 HK))Company ReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of23Company Report:China Everbright International(00257 HK)Gary Wong黄家玮公司报告：中国光大国际(00257 HK)+852 2509 2616gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk18 July 2014Leader in Solid Waste Treatment, Initiate with “Accumulate”固废处理龙头,首次给予“收集”评级According to 12thFive-Year Plan,total capacity of innocuous disposal ofhouse refuse by incinerationmethod should increase from 89,625tons/day to 307,155 tons/day in 2010-15, or a CAGR of 27.9%.In addition,China is spending a total of RMB839.8 billion in 2010-15 to construct new andtoupgrade old water supply and waste water treatment facilities.EBI (00257 HK, “the Company”) is one of the largest environmental protectioncompanies in China.The Company’s businesses include constructionand operation of waste-to-energy projects, sewage treatment projectsand alternative energy projects. As at 31 December 2013, the Companyhad an annual household waste processing capacity of 8.23 million tonsand an annual sewage processing capacity of 667.95 million m3.We expect the Company’s revenue to increase from RMB5,320 million inFY13 to RMB 10,920 million inFY16 with a CAGR of 27.1%.Net profitshould increase from RMB1,325 million in FY13 to RMB2,780 million inFY16 with a CAGR of 28.0%Initiate the EPS estimates of FY14-16 at RMB0.359, RMB0.481 andRMB0.620,respectively, or FY13-16 EPS CAGR of 23.9%.We apply 1.2xPEG to value the Company at HKD13.20, representing 28.7x/21.4x/16.6xFY14/15/16 PER.Risks include public opposition risk, regulation risk in whichwater price and sewage treatment pricearefully regulated by theGovernment, and interest risk.根据十二五规划,以焚烧法作为生活的垃圾无害化处理的方法将会于2010-15年间从89,625吨/日增加至307,155吨/日,或复合年增长率27.9%。另外,中国将于2010-15年间花费共8,398亿元(人民币,下同)用以建设及更新旧的供水及污水处理设施。光大国际(00257 HK, “公司”)是中国最大的环保公司之一。公司业务包括建设及经营垃圾发电项目、污水处理项目及另类能源项目。截至2013年12月31日,公司有垃圾处理年产能8.23百万吨及污水处理年产能667.95百万立米。我们预计营收将会从13年的53.20亿元增至16年的109.20亿元,或27.1%的年复合增长,及纯利将会从13年的13.25亿港元增至15年的27.80亿港元,或28.0%的年复合增长。我们首次提供14-16年每股盈利预测分别为0.359元、0.481元及0.620元,或23.9%的13-16复合年增长率。我们以1.2倍的市盈增长率定下公司目标价为13.20港元,对应28.7/21.4/16.6倍的14/15/16年预期市盈率。主要风险为居民可能对项目反抗的风险、供水价以及污水处理价均由政府全权定价的监管风险,及利率风险。Rating:AccumulateInitial评级：收集(首次研究)6-18m TP目标价:HK$13.20Revised from原目标价:HK$n.a.Share price股价：HK$11.400Stock performance股价表现Change in Share Price股价变动1 M1个月3 M3个月1 Y1年Abs. %绝对变动%7.07.292.2Rel. % to HS index相对恒指变动%5.12.476.9Avg. shareprice(HK$)平均股价（港元）10.710.39.0Sour ce:Blo omb erg,Guot aiJu nanInternationalYear End年结Turnover收入Net Profit股东净利EPS每股净利EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS每股股息Yield股息率ROE净资产收益率12/31(RMBm)(RMBm)(RMB)(△%)(x)(RMB)(x)(RMB)(%)(%)2012A3,4108810.2336.438.72.0684.40.0600.713.32013A5,3201,3250.32640.127.32.9833.00.0851.012.22014F7,6841,6090.35910.124.83.2522.70.0901.011.52015F9,1752,1550.48133.918.53.6122.50.1201.414.02016F10,9202,7800.62029.014.34.0782.20.1551.716.1Shares in issue (m)总股数(m)4,483.7Major shareholder大股东China Everbright Group 41.4%Market cap. (HK$ m)市值(HK$ m)50,486.6Free float (%)自由流通比率(%)55.83 month average vol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000)10,668.2FY14Net gearing(%)FY14净负债/股东资金(%)21.752 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低12.120/5.830FY13-16 EPS CAGR 13-16年每股盈利复合年增长率23.9%Source︰the Company, Guotai JunanInternational.0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0Jul-13Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14Jun-14% of returnHSI IndexCHINA EVERBRIGHT INTL LTD 18 July 2014ChinaEverbright International中国光大国际(00257 HK)))Company ReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of23Industry AnalysisWaste Treatment Industry in ChinaAccording to Chinanews(中国新闻网), urban waste volume should reach 260 million tons and 323 million tons in2015 and 2020 respectively.According to Chinanews, approximately 2/3of the cities of China is surrounded by solid wastes,of which 1/4 of them does not have landfill areas any more. Accumulated solid waste has occupied over 500 million sqm ofland, creating over RMB30 billion annual economic loss. It is also expected urbanwastes volume should reach 260 milliontons and 323 million tons in 2015 and 2020 respectively.Fig 1: Urban Garbage Disposed in ChinaFig 2: Innocuous Disposal of Urban GarbageSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China.Source:NationalBureau of Statistics of China.Incineration method (waste to energy) should become the trend of disposingofhouse refuse in China.According tothe 12thFive-Year Plan of Infrastructure Construction for Innocuous Disposal of Urban House Refuse (“the Plan”), totalcapacity of innocuous disposal of house refuse should increase from 456,917 tons/day in 2010 to 871,491 tons/day in 2015.This represented a double of capacity, or 13.8% CAGR in 2010-15. We think a more important point is the change in structureof disposal method. During 2005-10, proportion of disposal method from landfill method only declined from 78.1% in 2005 to77.0% in 2010, or 1.1 ppts, andincineration method increased substantially from 11.0% to 19.6%, or 8.6 pp