通信行业点评：联通、电信共享共建，5G 建设将提速

电子行业观察 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理 通信行业点评 联通、电信共享共建，5G建设将提速 中国联通公告与中国电信签署5G网络共建共享框架合作协议书。根据协议，中国联通独立建设北方8省，中国电信独立建设南方17省，联通电信按比例共同建设15个重点城市及广东省和浙江省。我们根据国家统计局电信用户分布数据估算，中国联通/中国电信将分别负责共建共享中 41%/59%的建设。 联通、电信在全国范围实现5G接入网共建共享，预计中国联通更受益。中国联通公告与中国电信签署《5G 网络共建共享框架合作协议书》。两家运营商将在5G频率资源上共享。两家运营商拟在全国范围内合作共建5G接入承载网（约占资本开支 80%），同时保持各自5G核心网的独立（约占总资本 20%）。区域上，在北京、天津、郑州、青岛和石家庄5个北方城市，联通和电信将按6:4比例建设；上海、重庆、广州、深圳、杭州、南京、苏州、长沙、武汉、成都10个南方城市，联通和电信将按照4:6比例建设；联通将单独承建广东9个地市、浙江5个地市和北方8省；电信将单独承建广东10个地市、浙江5个地市和南方17省。结合国家和地方统计局的统计的电信用户数据，假设两家运营商在共建共享区域按照 5:5 承建，则中国联通将承担41%的建设，中国电信为59%。从资本支出的角度，中国联通在本次合作中更加受惠。 公告明示联通、电信5G建设的启动信号。根据三大运营商2019H1业绩公告，2019年三大运营商5G资本开支占无线资本开支的比例达到23%，2020年预计5G投资将成为无线建设的主要投资方向，4G建设将会迅速下滑。此次中国联通的公告明示了两家运营商5G网络建设如期开启的信号。联通电信合作建网的目标是与中国移动竞争，预计未来3大运营商5G投资将提速，而5G总体投资建设规模则可能缩减1/3，三大运营商5G总资本支出则可能下降15%-20%。但是，建设初期我们认为运营商仍会聚焦一线城市网络建设，设备商等产业链相关公司业绩暂时不会受到共建共享影响而下降。我们认为明年和后年的资本开支仍然将呈现上行趋势，共建共享在5G早期将影响基站的地域覆盖，而非资本投入的下滑。 共享建网靴子落地，设备商股价有望走稳。通信设备商业绩受电信运营商资本开支影响较多，此前反复传出联电合并、共享共建消息导致设备商股价波动较为激烈。目前共享公告落实，不确定性消除。尽管，长期来看共将共享5G网络将导致运营商5G建设总支出下降，但短期内有望推动5G建设提速，设备商仍有望在资本开支上行周期内受益。 5G建设提速，利好终端产业链。我们认为，共享共建有望推动5G建设提速，进而加快5G应用节奏、降低流量成本，最终令5G终端产业链受益。预计5G手机将批量出货可能出现在2020年中甚至提前。建议继续关注港股手机产业链：舜宇光学科技、比亚迪电子。 风险：运营商资本开支低于预期;5G 建设节奏不及预期 2019年9月13日 行业研究 所属行业 通信行业 评级 跑赢大市 资料来源：Wind资讯、国信香港研究部整理 通信行业近期表现 注：数据截止至2019年09月13日 资料来源：Wind资讯、国信香港研究部整理 郑宇飞 SFC CE No.: BJV215 +852 2899 8300 zhengyf@guosen.com.hk 电子行业观察 郑宇飞，+852 2899 8300，zhengyf@guosen.com.hk 2 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理 图2 中国联通、中国电信共享共建区域分布示意图 资料来源：中国联通、中国电信公告、国信香港研究部整理 电子行业观察 郑宇飞，+852 2899 8300，zhengyf@guosen.com.hk 3 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 12 months Buy Relative Performance>20%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to20%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -20%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-20%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Ratings: The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 12 months Outperform Relative Performance>5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance<-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively “Guosen Securities (HK)”) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the s