8月乘用车日均销量降幅收窄，四季度表现值得期待

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·个股深度报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现  上周行情回顾：上周沪深300上涨3.92%，汽车板块上涨3.91%，涨幅位列申万一级行业第15，跑输沪深300指数0.01个百分点；其中，汽车整车板块上涨4.03%，汽车零部件板块上涨3.99%，汽车服务板块上涨3.04%。  上市公司信息回顾：商务部：适时出台专项政策，支持汽车贸易；宝马集团加码自动驾驶，投资AI算法公司；宁德时代和比亚迪电池拟进入日本等。  本周行业观点：根据乘联会每周数据，8月第四周国内乘用车市场日均零售量为10万台，同比增长31%，8月最后一周销量显著回暖。8月前四周累计日均零售量为4.8万台，同比下滑6%，降幅出现一定程度回暖迹象。第四周日均批发量为9.3万台，同比增长21%，前四周累计日均批发量为4.8万台，同比下滑8%。考虑到8月为国内乘用车产销淡季，目前的日均销量水平已表现出一定回暖态势。我们认为，在近期国家相关部门再次提出推动和促进汽车消费为市场带来的政策预期和即将到来的四季度传统旺季的叠加下，行业底部正在形成，四季度销量表现值得期待。  投资建议：对于行业投资逻辑，我们始终认为，未来我国汽车行业的竞争将不断加剧，唯有具备技术、资金、研发、品牌等综合优势的龙头企业有能力持续受益，结构性机会将是长期关注重点。在当前时点，汽车行业正面临整体盈利周期的低点，随着库存的逐步去化及国内宏观经济的企稳，行业复苏预期正在形成，从弹性角度看，建议关注目前业绩及估值见底，且未来业绩大概率有望企稳回升的整车企业长安汽车。从中长期价值角度看，整车及零部件板块，建议关注在合资及自主领域具备领先优势的整车及零部件企业上汽集团、华域汽车、星宇股份。在新能源汽车板块，随着特斯拉中国工厂的落地，其本土供应链将迎来结构性机会。特斯拉国产化对于其现有供应商而言意味着订单弹性有望增大，而对于潜在供应商而言，则意味着有望获得全新增量订单。建议关注特斯拉现有供应商三花智控、拓普集团，以及有望成为新晋供应商的优质标的银轮股份。同时，随着汽车智能化、电动化的不断推进，具备整车厂Tier1资源和产品技术优势的车载电子龙头有望成为智能驾驶落地的入口，享受智能驾驶高速增长的红利，建议重点关 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 -0.39 -1.58 15.73 深证成指 0.03 0.42 29.36 创业板指 -0.29 2.58 28.82 沪深300 -0.56 -0.93 26.20 汽车(申万) 2.18 -1.57 7.18 汽车整车 1.75 -2.09 4.19 汽车零部件 2.64 -1.36 8.22 汽车服务 1.42 -0.89 10.53 指数表现（最近一年） -15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%汽车(申万)沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：杨靖磊 执业证书编号：S1050518080001 电话：021-54967583 邮箱：yangjl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2019年9月10日 汽车 8月乘用车日均销量降幅收窄，四季度表现值得期待 行业评级：中性 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业周报 注座舱电子系统龙头德赛西威。  风险提示：汽车销量持续低迷导致车企盈利能力大幅下滑、宏观经济持续低迷、中美贸易摩擦不断升级等。 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·行业周报 目录 1. 本周观点及投资建议 ····················································································································································· 4 2. 市场行情回顾 ································································································································································ 4 2.1大盘反弹，汽车板块跟随上涨 ··································································································································· 4 2.2各子板块均出现上涨，商用载客车板块表现抢眼 ····································································································· 6 3. 行业及公司动态回顾 ····················································································································································· 8 3.1传统整车及零部件领域 ··············································································································································· 8 3.2智能网联领域 ······························································································································································ 9 3.3 汽车电动化领域 ························································································································································· 9 4. 重点公司公告速览 ······················································································································································· 11 5. 行业重点数据跟踪 ······················································································································································· 12 5.1. 汽车产销数据跟踪 ·················································································································································· 12 5.2. 商用车产销数据跟踪 ··············································································································································· 13 5.3. 新能源汽车产销数据跟踪 ······································································································································· 14 5.4行业库存情况跟踪 ···················································································································································· 16 5.5重点原材料价格数据走势跟踪 ································································································································· 16 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4 证券研究报告·行业周报 1. 本周观点及投资建议 根据乘联会每周数据，8月第四周国内乘用车市场日均零售量为10万台，同比增长31%，8月最后一周销量显著回暖。8月前四周累计日均零售量为4.8万台，同比下滑6%，降幅出现一定程度回暖迹象。第四周日均批发量为9.3万台，同比增长21%，前四周累计日均批发量为4.8万台，同比下滑8%。考虑到8月为国内乘用车产销淡季，目前的日均销量水平已出现收窄趋势。我们认为，在近期国家相关部门再次提出推动和促进汽车消费为市场带来的政策预期和即将到来的四季度传统旺季的叠加下，行业底部正在形成，四季度销量表现值得期待。 对于行业投资逻辑，我们始终认为，未来我国汽车行业的竞争将不断加剧，唯有具备技术、资金、研发、品牌等综合优势的龙头企业有能力持续受益，结构性机会将是长期关注重点。在当前时点，汽车行业正面临整体盈利周期的低点，未来随着国内宏观经济的逐步企稳，行业复苏指日可待，从弹性角度看，建议关注目前业绩及估值见底，且未来业绩大概率有望企稳回升的整车企业长安汽车。从中长期价值角度看，整车及零部件板块，依旧建议关注在合资及自主领域具备领先优势的整车及零部件企业上汽集团、华域汽车、星宇股份。在新能源汽车板块，随着特斯拉中国工厂的落地，其本土供应链将迎来结构性机会。特斯拉国产化对于其现有供应商而言意味着订单弹性有望增大，而对于潜在供应商而言，则意味着有望获得全新增量订单。建议关注现有特斯拉现有供应商三花智控、拓普集团，以及有望成为新晋供应商的优质标的银轮股份。同时，随着汽车智能化、电动化的不断推进，具备整车厂Tier1资源和产品技术优势的车载电子龙头有望成为智能驾驶落地的入口，享受智能驾驶高速增长的红利，建议重