安信证券宏观研究 安信证券宏观研究 第1页，共12页 2019年6月 旬度经济观察 ——外部环境略有缓和，短期提振风险资产 韦志超1 袁方(联系人)2 2019年6月30日 内容提要 中美G20会谈落下帷幕，整体结果超出市场预期，风险资产在短期内将得到一定的提振，但中期来看影响幅度不会很大。 对A股而言，除了短期利好，我们可能需要注意中期的缺口回补。 6月PMI持平于上月的49.4，低于荣枯线。经济预计依旧弱势，但快速下滑阶段或已过去。 风险提示：（1）贸易摩擦加剧；（2）地缘政治风险 1 高级宏观分析师，weizc@essence.com.cn，S1450518070001 2 助理宏观分析师，y uanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450118080052 安信证券宏观研究 安信证券宏观研究 第2页，共12页 2019年6月 一、外部环境略有缓和，短期提振风险资产 万众瞩目的中美G20会谈落下帷幕，整体结果超出市场预期，风险资产在短期内将得到一定的提振，但中期来看影响幅度不会很大。 从中美双方的声明来看，在最重要的关税问题上，结果与市场预期大致相符；但对于其他的一些问题，特别是华为问题的表述，是超出市场预期的。 表一：2019年G20双方表述 Trump's statement Chinese statements Comments On trade tal ks Trump s ays U.S. won't raise tari ffs on Chi na "for the ti me bei ng." U.S s ays no new tari ffs to be i mpos ed. 符合预期 - Agreed to res tart tal ks where th ey l eft off. Agreed to res tart tal ks , and negoti ators will discuss s peci fi c i s s ues . 符合预期 - - Negoti ati ons mus t be equal , refl ect mutual res pect and address res pecti ve concerns 符合预期 - Trump threatens future tari ffs i f no deal i s made. No menti on. 符合预期 On purchas es and trade bal ance Trump s ays Chi na wil l buy a "tremendous " amoun t of food and agri cul tural products . U.S. wi ll gi ve Chi na a l i s t of thi ngs to buy. No menti on. 符合预期 - - Trump s ai d he hoped Chi na can i ncreas e i mports res ol ve the bi l ateral trade i mbal ance. 符合预期 On compani es - Chi na hopes Chi nes e compani es will be treated fai rl y. Trump s ays he hopes to provi de fai r treatmen t for the compani es of both nati ons . 符合预期 On Huawei Trump s ays Huawei is s ue mus t be s aved to the very end , but U.S. wi l l make conces s i on and all ow U.S . compani es to s el l to Huawei . No men ti on i n s tatemen t. Chi nes e offi cial later s ai d Chi na hoped U.S. woul d foll ow through and li ft res tri cti ons . 超出预期 安信证券宏观研究 安信证券宏观研究 第3页，共12页 2019年6月 On Huawei 's Meng Wanzhou Trump s ays i t was n't di s cus sed. No menti on. 符合预期 On North Korea No menti on. Chi na willi ng to play a cons tructi ve rol e. U.S. val ues Chi na's rol e. 符合预期 On Tai wan No menti on. Chi na s tated i t's pos i ti on on Tai wan, and Trump agreed to conti nue wi th the one-Chi na pol i cy. 符合预期 On s tudents Will make i t easi er for Chi nes e s tudents to s tay. Hope Chi nes e s tuden ts wi ll be treated fairl y. Trump res ponded that there are many good Chi nes e s tuden ts and he's al ways wel comed them to th e U.S. 超出预期 数据来源：Bloomberg 简单对比2018年12月双方的G20声明，我们可以较为明显的看出，美方的相对优势在减小。值得注意的是，2018年12月的G20会谈之后，白宫在第一时间发表了声明，高度评价了会谈的成果，称之为“highly successful meeting”、“amazing and productive meeting”。但这一次，白宫并没有及时发表声明，这可能意味着对于美方而言，成果不如上次的大；这可能暗示双方的谈判天平在趋向平衡。 表二：2018年G20双方表述 U.S. STATEMENT CHINESE STATEMENT On trade tal ks Tari ffs on $200 billi on of Chi nes e goods won't be rai s ed on Jan. 1. Wang Yi 's s tatemen t s ays there wi ll be no hi gher tari ffs . Deputy Co mmerce Mi nis ter Wang Shouwen s ai d s eparatel y tari ffs on $200 billi on of Chi nes e goods won't be rai s ed on Jan.1. - Thos e tari ffs will be rai s ed to 25 percent i f a deal is not reached i n the next 90 days . 90-day deadl i ne not menti oned. 安信证券宏观研究 安信证券宏观研究 第4页，共12页 2019年6月 - Not menti oned. Both l eaders as ked thei r teams to s peed up tal ks , work toward scrappi ng all tari ffs and reach a mutuall y benefi ci al , wi n-wi n agreement. - U.S., Chi na will negoti ate i mmedi atel y on forced technol ogy trans fer, i ntell ectual property protecti on, non-tari ff barri ers and cyber theft. U.S., Chi na will work together to reach a cons ens us on trade i s s ues . On purchas es and trade bal ance Chi na will purchas e "very s ubs tantial " farm, energy , i ndus trial and other products . Chi na wi l l i mport more U.S. goods . - Chi na will i mmedi atel y res tart buyi ng agri cul tural products . Not menti oned. On compani es Xi will reconsi der Qual comm-NXP deal . Not menti oned. On bi l ateral vi sits Bi l ateral vi sits not menti oned. Trump, Xi will visit each other’s countri es at an appropri ate ti me. On drug Chi na will desi gnate Fentanyl a Control l ed Subs tance. Chi na will ti ghten s upervi si on of Fentanyl , revi s e rul es on the drug. On North Korea U.S., Chi na and North Korea will work toward a nucl ear-free Korean Peni ns ul a. Chi na s upports another meeti ng of U.S. and North Korea’s leaders. On One-Chi na pol i cy One-Chi na pol i cy not menti oned. U.S. agrees to conti nue r es pecti ng One-Chi na pol i cy. On market acces s Market acces s not menti oned. U.S. and