联储议息会议点评：联储按兵不动，指引淡化首次加息的影响

- 1 - 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 李治平 分析师 SAC执业编号：S1130512090002 (8621)60230201 lizhip@gjzq.com.cn 程子龙 联系人 (8621)61038204 chengzil@gjzq.com.cn 王晶 联系人 (8621)60935877 jingwang@gjzq.com.cn 联储按兵不动，指引淡化首次加息的影响 基本结论 美联储于6月18日召开议息会议，维持现有货币政策不变，符合市场以及我们的预期，联储主席在问答环节指出市场对首次加息过度重视，应更注意加息的过程，我们认为联储通过此种方式管理预期，试图防止市场出现过激反应。我们对此次议息会议的具体分析如下：  会议声明部分主要反应了两次会议间整体向好的经济数据（详细的原文对比请参考附注），导致一季度经济数据较差的一些暂时性的影响已经逐渐消退。具体来说：联储对经济整体的判断由减缓到适度扩张，劳动力市场改善由停滞到有一些进展，家庭消费支出由上次的下降到本次的一般，并且专门指出房地产出现改善迹象，这是上次会议没有的内容。但商业投资和净出口依然较弱。  经济预测部分整体变动不大，略微调低了对15年经济复苏步伐的预期：略微调低了15年的GDP预测，略微调高了15年的失业率预测，两者16年以后的预测部分基本没有改变，价格预测部分没有变动，整体来看变动较小。  加息幅度趋缓，但最终利率不变：代表联储加息路径的“散点图”显示委员对16与17年的利率预期中位数略微下调，但15年与长期前景不变，值得注意的是联储15年底给出的利率区间中位数仍为0.5%-0.75%，意味着年底加息两次。 联储委员预测联邦利率区间中位数 来源：美联储，国金证券研究所整理  问答环节主要强调联储将会“逐渐”加息，市场不应对首次加息时间过于重视：整体来看问答环节中规中矩，唯一的亮点是耶伦在不同的场合提示联储加息会是“逐渐”的，市场不应对首次加息过于重视。我们认为这是联储对市场进行预期管理，防止市场在加息时出现大幅波动。 整体来看，此次联储按兵不动符合市场以及我们的预期，9月第一次加息仍是我们的基准情景。 2015年底2016年底2017年底长期2015年3月0.5%-0.75%1.75%-2%3%-3.25%3.75%2015年6月0.5%-0.75%1.5%-1.75%2.75%-3%3.75% 2015年06月18日 联储议息会议点评 证券研究报告 用使箱邮收接告报金基商华司公限有理管金基商华供仅告报此此报告仅供华商基金管理有限公司华商基金报告接收邮箱使用 宏观经济点评 - 2 - 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 附录：联储6月与4月议息会议声明的对比 删除线部分为4月声明被替换的文字，下划线为6月声明中新出现的文字 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. 宏观经济点评 - 3 - 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 上海 北京 深圳 电话：021-60753903 传真：021-61038200 邮箱：researchsh@gjzq.com.cn 邮编：201204 地址：上海浦东新区芳甸路1088号 紫竹国际大厦7楼 电话：010-66216979 传真：010-66216793 邮箱：researchbj@gjzq.com.cn 邮编：100053 地址：中国北京西城区长椿街3号4 层 电话：0755-83831378 传真：0755-83830558 邮箱：researchsz@gjzq.com.cn 邮编：518000 地址：中国