美联储议息会议点评：联储按兵不动，内部分歧较大，年内加息一次

- 1 - 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 程子龙 联系人 (8621)61038204 chengzil@gjzq.com.cn 曹燕萍 分析师 SAC执业编号：S1130514080004 (8621)61038291 caoyanping@gjzq.com.cn 联储按兵不动，内部分歧较大，年内加息一次 基本结论  美联储于9月18日召开议息会议，维持现有货币政策不变，会议着重强调了国际经济与金融变化可能对美国经济与通胀造成的负面影响，并且将经济、通胀与联储预期的利率展望同时向下调整，长期失业率预期同时也进行了下调。整体来说此次会议鸽派倾向已经部分被市场计入，且此次会议中联储内部分歧较大。另外值得指出的是有一位委员投票反对不加息的决议，也有一位委员提议今年与明年实行负利率，联储内部分歧较大。升息路径被下调后，15年年内仍需加息一次。我们具体的解读如下：  利率决议声明中着重强调了国际经济与市场的波动对美国经济潜在的冲击，在利率决议中出现（相对）较大的篇幅表示联储对此的重视，并且认为国际经济金融情况“需要监视”，在会议的口头陈述中，耶伦重点指出风险来源于“中国和新兴国家”；对美国当前经济形势的判断整体不变，投资有改善迹象。劳动力市场仍然维持“需要进一步改善”的陈述，仅从失业率数据来说，劳动力市场进一步改善的空间其实不大，但劳动参与率的下降与工资增长的相对疲弱是联储做出上述陈述的主要原因，我们反而认为劳动力市场的表述鸽派程度略超预期。  经济展望方面，联储上调了15年GDP增长的预期，主要反映了二季度新出的数据，（6月的会议预测中，二季度的主要经济指标仍有相当部分尚未公布），但是下调此后几年的经济增长预期；  物价展望方面预期下调表述变化不大，由于近期油价的调整与强势美元的原因进一步下调通胀预期，但中期仍预期能达到2%的目标；  利率路径方面，联储预期调整较大，一方面有更多委员认为首次升息的较上次滞后（6月预测时，17人中有2人认为16年升息，9月预测时，17人中有3人预测16年升息，1人预测17年升息）；另一方面，升息路径变得更加平缓，由15年的两次升息降低至一次，且最终的均衡利率进一步下调，有以为委员甚至认为今明两年应实行负利率，联储的预期逐渐向市场的预测靠拢，“长期停滞”意味略微加强。  整体来说，联储的鸽派倾向事先已经被部分计入，且此次会议中联储内部分歧较大，我们认为联储的数据依赖、淡化首次加息影响的原则仍未改变，在国际经济环境并未出现重大变化（我们认为主要国家经济出现“硬着陆”情景），联储加息更多的是时间点选择问题，但可能影响加息的路径，以及终值。 预测时间2015年底2016年底2017年底2018年底长期2015年6月0.6%1.6%2.9%-3.8%2015年9月0.4%1.4%2.6%3.4%3.5% 2015年10月21日 美联储议息会议点评 证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 - 2 - 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 附录：联储9月与7月议息会议声明的对比 删除线部分为7月声明被替换的文字，下划线为9月声明中新出现的文字 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for