不明朗因素消除

1 Company Research Company update See the last page of this report for important disclosures Concord New Energy (182 HK) Overhang removed Vice Chairman Mr. Johnson Ko has agreed to sell most of his existing holding shares to the largest shareholder CWPII and third parties. As highlighted in our initiation report back in October last year, we believe the potential selling of shares from Mr. Ko is an overhang to the share price. With this uncertainty being removed, we believe this is positive to the company’s share price in the long run. We revise up our DCF based TP to $0.85 as we lower our cost of equity assumption. At our revised TP, CNE would be trading at 16.5x/13.6x FY15/16PE, which is lower than its FY15-17 NP CAGR of 21%. Vice Chairman agreed to sell most of his existing holding shares Mr. Johnson Ko, the vice chairman of Concord New Energy, has agreed to sell 1.8bn of existing shares (around 20.1% of total outstanding shares) on 14 May 2015. 0.5bn shares would be selling to the company’s largest shareholder – China Wind Power Investment Limited (CWPII), while the remaining 1.3bn shares would be selling to independent third parties not connected to the company. The agreed placing for both transactions is HK$0.6 per share. The Ko’s family would reduce its stake to 2.46% After the completion of the placement, CWPII would increase its stake from 22.62% to 28.21%, while Mr. Johnson Ko and his daughter Ms. Samantha Ko would together hold around 2.46% of Concord NE. Long term positive to the company as uncertainty is removed As highlighted in our initiation report back in October last year, we believe the potential selling of shares from Mr. Johnson Ko is an overhang to the share price. With this uncertainty being removed, we believe this is positive to the company’s share price in the long run. Reiterate our BUY rating; revise up our DCF based TP to $0.85 On the back of the overall market re-rating due to significant improvement in market liquidity recently, as well as the anticipation of more supportive monetary measures in China, we have lowered our cost of equity to 10.5% and our DCF based TP was revised up from $0.75 to $0.85 accordingly. We maintain our positive view on the company and reiterate our BUY rating on the counter. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (HK$mn) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue 1,883 3,550 4,814 5,860 6,530 Operating Profit 309 448 615 821 1,062 Reported Profit 151 317 460 560 673 Underlying Profit 151 317 460 560 673 Underlying EPS (HKD) 0.017 0.035 0.051 0.063 0.075 P/E (x) 38.5 18.3 12.6 10.4 8.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 P/B (x) 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 ROE (%) 3.2 6.0 7.9 9.0 10.1 Net debt/equity (%) 9.7 13.6 58.8 92.6 120 Source: Guosen Securities(HK) China Energy & Environmental Winds 15 May 2015 BUY Target price ▲ HK$0.85 Last price (14 May 15) HK$0.65 Upside/downside (%) 30.8 HSI 27286.55 Mkt cap (HK$mn/US$mn) 5,815/750 52 week range (HK$) 0.40 - 0.80 Avg trading volume daily (US$mn) 5.79 Free float (%) 58.2% Source: Bloomberg Performance Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 6.6 47.7 20.4 Absolute (US$, %) 6.6 47.8 20.4 Relative to HSI (%) 7.6 37.2 (0.5) Source: Bloomberg Company background Concord New Energy specializes in wind power electricity generation. The Companys principle businesses include wind farm investment and operations, and manufacturing of wind power equipment. China WindPower also provides wind power electricity generation services such as feasibility studies, technological consultation, power plant design, engineering, procurement and construction. Source: Bloomberg Raymond Ip SFC CE No.: AMB348 +852 2899 3142 raymond.ip@guosen.com.hk Anna Lu SFC CE No.: BCJ650 +852 2899 8342 anna.lu@guosen.com.hk 60%70%80%90%100%110%120%0.400.450.500.550.600.650.700.75May-14Jan-15HK$ Price(LHS)Rel. to HSI(RHS) 2 公司报告 公司快讯 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 协合新能源 (182 HK) 不明朗因素消除 公司副主席高振顺已经同意向公司最大股东CWPII以及第三方出售其目前持有的大部分股份。正如我们去年10月的首发报告所述，我们认为高先生可能会出售其股票对于公司股价来说是一个不明朗因素。随着这一不确定性解除，我们认为这一事件长远来看对公司股价是一个利好。随着我们对股本成本假设之降低，我们将基于现金流折现的目标价调高至0.85港元。新目标价对应的2015/16年市盈率分别为16.5/13.6倍，低于该公司净利润2015-17年的年复合增长率21%。 副主席同意出售其目前持有的大部分股份 协和新能源副主席高振顺先生已于2015年5月14日同意出售目前持有的18亿股股份（约占已发行股份总数20.1%）。其中5亿股将向公司最大的股东China Wind Power Investment Limited (CWPII)出售，而剩下的13亿股将配售给非关联的独立第三方。两项交易的价格均为每股0.6港元。 高振顺家族所持股份将减至2.46% 配售完成后，CWPII所持股份将从22.62%增至28.21%，而高振顺先生及其女儿高颖欣将合共持有约2.46%的协合新能源股份。 由于不确定性解除，对公司长远来看是利好 正如我们去年10月的首发报告所述，我们认为高先生可能会出售其股票对于公司股价来说是一个不明朗因素。随着这一不确定性解除，我们认为这一事件长远来看对公司股价是一个利好。 重申买入评级，上调了基于贴现现金流目标价至0.85 港元 鉴于对市场流动性近日之显著改善，以及预计中国将出台更多支持性之货币政策，我们降低了权益成本假设至10.5％，从而上调了基于贴现现金流目标价至0.85港元。我们维持对公司的正面看法，并重申买入评级。 Figure 2: 盈利预测 截至Dec 31 (港元百万) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 营业额 1,883 3,550 4,814 5,860 6,530 经营盈利 309 448 615 821 1,062 净利润 151 31