公司报告 医药│香港│2019年8月27日 Powered by the EFA Platform Insert Insert 联邦制药 不明朗因素消除;是时候趁低吸纳 ■ 2019上半年业绩优于此前盈喜公告中的指引。6-APA价格可能即将见底,若6-APA价格回升,将带来额外的盈利上升空间。 ■ 我们看到胰岛素业务健康发展。预计第二代胰岛素表现将在2019年下半年迎头赶上。 ■ 我们将2019/20/21年盈利预测下调7.8%/6.5%/4.5%,主要是下调了中间体和原料药的利润预测。我们的分类加总估值目标价从5.53港元下调至5.2港元(相当于12.9/10.7/9.3倍2019/20/21年市盈率)。 ■ 考虑到胰岛素产品前景乐观及为公司带来重估潜力,我们维持「增持」评级。近期催化剂包括:1)甘精胰岛素销售提升速度加快;2)门冬胰岛素注射剂预计将于2020年上半年推出。 2019年上半年业绩优于盈喜指引 期内净利润为2.96亿元人民币,高于8月16日盈喜公告所指引的2.8亿元人民币。如果撇除以下非经营性项目:1)可换股债券衍生工具部分的公允价值收益5,240万元人民币;2)投资性房地产公允价值变动损失9,330万元人民币;3)递延所得税负债转回5,150万元人民币,则2019年上半年经常性净利润为2.98亿元人民币,同比下降25.2%。经常性利润下降主要是由于6-APA价格疲软。由于利润降幅符合预期,因此有助消除短期内不确定性。 第二代胰岛素收入同比增长14.6%至2.87亿元人民币,应该低于预期的同比增长约20%,这可能是由于一些省份竞争加剧和招标进展缓慢。第三代胰岛素收入同比增长184%至8,500万元人民币,超过预期的同比增长约100%。 净债务权益比从2018年底的40%上升至2019年6月底的27%。我们预计,未来净负债率将进一步下降,主要是:1)预计在2019年下半年偿还约8亿元人民币可换股债券,以及2)套现投资物业带来约10亿元人民币现金(两年内分7期支付)。 相信6-APA价格已见底 中间体和原料药占公司2019上半年总营业利润的34%(图2)(2018年上半年为57%)。盈利大幅波动是由于公司6-APA对外销售下降部分缓解了6-APA价格下跌的影响,而阿莫西林原料药的销售额则在2019上半年上升,平均售价维持相对平稳于约190元人民币/公斤。6-APA平均价格(不含增值税)为135元人民币/公斤,而2018年上半年为176元人民币/公斤。价格疲软可能是由于国药集团威奇达药业恢复了500吨/月的供应量。我们预计2019年6-APA价格(不含增值税)维持在约140元人民币/公斤。我们认为当前价格已接近见底,因为整个6-APA行业(即联邦制药、科伦和威奇达)将只录得轻微盈利(管理层还提到,目前的6-APA价格可能已见底,而他们认为下跌空间有限)。我们认为,若6-APA价格未来上涨,将为公司盈利带来巨大的正面影响。 预计第二代胰岛素表现将在下半年迎头赶上 管理层在分析师会议期间保持了第二代胰岛素2019年收入增长20%的指引,意味着2019年下半年将实现约25%同比增长。我们认同此观点,并预计随着第二代胰岛素销售在下半年有更多营销活动,下半年销售将迎头赶上。对于第三代胰岛素甘精胰岛素,随着销售渠道扩张,我们维持2019/20年销售为170/240万元人民币的预测。 来源: 中国银河国际证券研究部, 公司, 彭博 香港 增持 (不变) 市场共识评级*: 买入5 持有4 沽出0 前收盘价: HK$4.39 目标价: HK$5.20 前目标价: HK$5.53 潜在上升/下跌空间: 18.5% CGS-CIMB / 市场共识Consensus: N/A 路透股票代号: 3933.HK 彭博股票代号: 3933 HK 市值: US$878.1m HK$6,887m 平均每日成交额: US$1.39m HK$10.85m 目前发行在外股数 1,640m 自由流通量 38.2% *来源: 彭博 来源: 彭博 股价表现 1M 3M 12M 绝对表现 (%) -3.7 -2.6 -41.1 相对表现 (%) 4.3 1.4 -35.3 主要股东 持股百分比 Heren Far East Limited 61.9 Insert 分析员 何霜霖 (香港证监会中央编号:BDU787) T (852) 3698 6320 E harryhe@chinastock.com.hk 王志文 (香港证监会中央编号:AIU435) T (852) 3698 6317 E cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 526579921053.404.405.406.407.40Price CloseRelative to HSI (RHS)102030Aug-18Nov-18Feb-19May-19Vol m收入 (百万人民币) 经调整净利润 (百万人民币) 百分比变动 经调整每股核心盈利 (人民币) 百分比变动 市盈率(倍) 市净率(倍) 经调整股本回报率(%) EV/EBI TDA (倍) Company Note Pharmaceuticals│Hong Kong│August 27, 2019 Powered by the EFA Platform Insert Insert The United Lab Overhang removed, time to accumulate ■ 1H2019 results were better than the guidance provided in the positive profit alert. ■ 6-APA price is probably near the trough, any 6-APA price hike going forward will provide additional positive earnings swing. ■ We see healthy development of the insulin business. 2nd generation insulin expected to catch up in 2H2019. ■ We trimmed our 2019/20/21E earnings forecast by 7.8%/6.5%/4.5% mainly to reflect lowered profit estimates for intermediates and bulk medicine. Our Target Price is cut from HK$5.53 to HK$5.2 (equivalent to 12.9/10.7/9.3x 2019/20/21E PER) correspondingly based on sum-of-the-parts valuation (Figure 4). ■ Maintain ADD for the Company’s re-rating potential brought by the positive outlook for its insulin products. Near-term catalysts include: 1) faster ramp up of insulin Glargine; 2) Insulin Aspart Injections is expected to be launched in 1H2020. 1H2019 results better than positive profit alert TUL reported net profit of RMB296m, higher than the RMB280m stated in the positive profit alert on Aug 16. If we exclude the non-operational items which mainly include 1) the fair value gain of derivative component of the CB of RMB52.4m; 2) loss on fair value change on investment properties of RMB93.3m; and 3) reversal of deferred tax liability of RMB51.5m, 1H2019 recurring net profit was RMB298.8m, down 25.2% YoY. The decline in recurring profit is mainly due to weak 6-APA price. As the profit decline is in line with expectation, it helped remove a short-term overhang. 2nd generation insulin recorded 14.6% YoY revenue growth to RMB287m, which should be lower than expected of ~20% growth YoY, probably due to more competition and slow tendering in some provinces. 3rd generation insulin delivered +184% YoY top-line growth to RMB85m, exceeding expectation of ~100% YoY. Net debt/equity improved from 40% at end-2018 to 27% at end-1H2019. We expect the net gearing to further decline going forward given 1) expected repayment of ~RMB800m CB in 2H2019 and 2) liquidation of the investment property to bring ~RMB1bn cash (paid in 7 installments within two years). 6-APA price probably at the trough Intermediates and bulk medicine contributed 34% (Figure 2) of 1H2019 total operating profit (vs. 57% for 1H2018,). The large earning swing is due to the lower 6-APA price, partially mitigated by TUL’s reduced 6-APA external sales while more sales on Amoxicillin bulk medicines with a relatively stable ASP of ~RMB190/kg in 1H2019. Average 6-APA price (exclude