G10美元抛售加剧，新兴市场美元买入持续

Strategist+44-20-75475907Christabel CharlesResearch Analyst positioning against the UsD over the past two weeks, as expectations of aSeptember Fed hike continued to fade following softer US economic data. Inaddition,the UsD weakened sharplylastweek following an unexpected Treasuryannouncement increasing buybacks of long-dated Us Treasuries.Against thisbackdrop,ourlatestCORAXindices,basedongloballyaggregatedelectronicspot-flow data, indicate that hedge funds turned more bearishon the dollar, particularlyagainstG10currencies.RealmoneyinvestorsalsoscaledbacktheirUSDbuyingoverthepasttwoweeks.However,thepictureinEMremainedmorecautious,withbothhedgefundsandrealmoneyinvestorscontinuingtofavourtheUsDoverlocalcurrencies. AcloserlookatG1oflowsshowsthatbearishdollar sentimentwas reinforcedbysystematic hedge funds, which increased buying in EUR and CAD whilemaintainingmoderately positive flows in JPY and marginally positive in SEK andNZD.At the same time, they scaled back selling in CHF, GBP, AUD, and NOKcomparedwithtwo weeks ago.Discretionaryhedge funds also turned morenegative on the dollar, significantly increasing buying in CAD and moderatelyincreasingbuyinginNZDandSEK.Theyalsomodestlyincreasedbuying inEURandGBP, while shifting from marginal selling to buying in NOK and JPY. Real moneyinvestors likewise became less supportive of the dollar.Buying in GBP, CAD, andAUD strengthened, while selling in EUR moderated. By contrast, selling in SEK,NOK,and CHFincreased. Across EM, discretionary hedge funds continued to sell a broad range of EMcurrencies,including HUF, SGD,TRY,CNH,ILS,THB, PLN,and ZAR, while reducingtheir buying in CZK and MXN.At the same time,systematic hedge fundsmaintained significantselling inCNHandPLN,alongsidemoremoderatesellinginMXN.Elsewhere, they maintained moderate buying in HUF, ZAR,and SGD, whileremainingmarginalbuyersofILS.Realmoneyinvestors also remained supportiveof the dollar,selling MXN, PLN,and CNH at considerable levels and SGD,THB,andZAR at more modest levels. By contrast, they increased their buying in CZK, HUF,TRY, and ILS. Datacoverthisweek'scloseasofFriday23:59Londontime,21-Aug-26.Figures1-19showthethree-monthrollingnetflowsasaproportionoftotalflows.Forexample,avalueof+10%forEURforagivenclientsegmentindicatesthatbytransactedvolumeoverthe lastthree months,55%ofthat client segmentarenetbuyersof the Euro, CORAX-Deutsche Bank currency flows CORAX-Deutsche Bank currencyflows percentilecomparedtolast5years) CORAX-DeutscheBank currencyflows CORAX-DeutscheBankcurrencyflows Appendix 1 *Otherinformationavailableuponrequest andother sources.Forfurther information regarding disclosures relevantto Deutsche BankResearch,please visit our globaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures.can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/DisclosureslDisclaimer.Investorsarestrongly encouragedto reviewthis information before investing. Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accuratelyreflect thepersonal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition,the undersignedlead analyst(s)has notandwill not receive any compensationforprovidinga specific recommendation orviewin this report.RohiniGrover. The information andopinions in thisreport were prepared byDeutsche Bank AG orone ofitsaffiliates (collectivelyDeutsche Bank').Thoughthe information herein is believed tobe reliableand has beenobtained frompublic sources believed tobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracyorsecuritycontrols ofthosewebsites. isincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst, DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. including strategists,sales staff and other analysts,maytakeviews that are inconsistentwiththosetaken inthisresearchreport.Deutsche Bank issues a.variety_of researchproducts,including fundamental analysis,equity-linked.analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas.Recommendations,contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others,whether as a result of differing time horizons,methodologies,perspectives orotherwise.DeutscheBankand/orits affiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecurities oftheissuers it writeson.Analystsarepaid inpartbased ontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGand itsaffiliates,which includes investmentbanking,tradingand principal trading revenues. necessarilyreflecttheopinionsof Deutsche Bankandare subjecttochangewithoutnotice.DeutscheBankprovides liquidityequities arelistedas Catalyst CalisontheResearchWebsite(https://research.db.com/Research)and canbefoundonthethatastockwilloutperformorunderperformthemarketand/oraspecifiedsectoroveratimeframeofnolessthan