全球外汇周报：波动隐忧，G10及新兴市场外汇策略展望

vol curves pricing in autumn event risk. Global Table of Contents EM FX. EM FX trend at its most bullish since April, driven by carry in a low-vol market.Our models suggest this trend can grow. G10 Themes G10 FX. Rising share of G10 cross-border M&A inflow driven by technology. SEK. Riksbank on hold but maintains hawkish bias. Slight upside risk for SEK. EMThemes PEN.Peru's Golden Rule: buy PEN TRY.Turkiye: Reserve constraints are easing,inflation constraints remain IDR.Indonesia-Awaiting next move on commodity export centralization Quant & Vol Insights and trend do not yet confirm further JPY upside. CAD likely to benefit most from lower US yields; quant & technical signals favor lower SCAD GBPUSD triangle pattern is matureand on watch for an impulsive breakout to chase. Volatility strategies near 1.3400, the range midpoint, may also be considered. MLI (UK)+1 646 855 9342Adarsh Sinha FX and Rates StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 9745adarsh.sinha@bofa.comClaudio Piron Emerging Asia FI/FX StrategistMerilLynch (Singapore)+65 6678 0401claudio.piron@bofa.comRaghav Adlakha EM Quant/Sovereign StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 9019raghav.adlakha@bofa.comSee Team Page for List of Analysts Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialBofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Michalis RousakisClaudio Piron Merrill Lynch (Singapore)claudio.piron@bofa.com MLI (UK)michalis.rousakis@bofa.com G10 and EM FX medium-term views G10Following the July FOMC, we closed our short EURUSD trade recommendation. In the wake of the June FOMC, we had expected the Fed to maintain a broadly hawkish tone. The July FOMC press conference injected uncertainty around the Fed's inflation-fighting commitment and reaction function. However, US data and risks surroundingthe Middle East conflict could provide support to the USD through the summer and until the Euro area growth recovery gathers steam. We retain a constructive medium-term EUR bias. We are no longer bearish JPY as structural outflows have been moderating and hedging trends have begun to shift The latest FX intervention supports ourbullish view on the yen, and led us to lower our year-end USDJPY forecast to 149. Elsewhere, we maintain a constructive medium-term bias for GBP but prefer to wait forgreater clarity on UK policies. We are short AUD/NZD, neutral on SEK and CHF, and bearish on CAD and NOKEMEM FX performance remains very mixed with Asia FX clearly underperforming with only CNY sustaining year-to-date gains. We now anticipate a firmer USD in H2 as USreal rates remain above 2% and we anticipate three Fed hikes, and underperformance in THB and IDR. ZAR remains the best hedge given its high beta to the Iran situation.has hugely outperformed its terms of trade thanks to the elections but has more room.Source: BofA Global Research OurkeyforecastsExhibit 2: Key BofA G10 and EM FX forecasts (EOP)YE2023 What we particularly like right nowExhibit 3: OurlatestG10 and EM FX trade recommendations What we particularly like right now Michalis Rousakis MLI (UK)michalis.rousakis@bofa.com FOMC minutes (Wed).EA PMIs (Fri). JP 2Q GDP (Mon). Riksbank (Thu). CPI for CA (Mon), UK (Wed), JP (Fri) AMRS - US import prices, IP, and housing market data (Tue). CA retail sales (Fri) Europe -in the EA, ZEW survey (Tue), final CPI (Wed), ECB CPI expectations, 2Qnegotiated wages, and consumer confidence (Fri). UK labour market data (Tue),retail sales (Fri)APAC -AU 2Q wages (Wed), labour market data (Thu) Weeks of Aug 24 and Aug 31 Jackson Hole (Aug 27-29). US PCE (8/26), NFP (9/4). CPI for AU (8/26), Tokyo (8/28)EA (9/1),Switzerland (9/3).GDP for NO (8/27), SW (8/28),AU (9/2).RBA andRiksbank minutes (8/25). Bo)'s Himino (8/27), Takata (9/2). RBNZ meeting (9/2) G10centralbankcallsExhibit 4: BofA G10 Central Bank calls Riksbank is meeting next week. RBNZ is meeting on Sep 2 Adarsh Sinha MLI (UK)raghav.adlakha@bofa.com MLI (UK)adarsh.sinha@bofa.com A summer lull in our core G1o FX convictions -no longer short EUR/USD yet not time to flip long; we retain long JPY vs. low yielding peers, even as intervention credibilityerodes; autumn seasonals and event-risk suggest higher FX volatility,but steep curvespricing this in.Exhibit 5: EUR/USD vs. 2y rate differentialExhibit 6: 3m-1m FX implied vol slope (average across G10 USD pairs) EUR/USD has been more stable in August than rate differential implies 1.2 EUR/USD struggles to extend post-FOMC rally, despite soft dataOur near-term bullish USD conviction has reduced, but the conditions are not yet in p