美股汽车与出行行业：二季度中国电动汽车欧洲销售报告解读

EV Report Card: A look at 2QChinese EV sales in Europe Keytakes:1.2QChineseOEM EV sales in Western Europe atrecordhighs,at~18%shareofEVsales;2.Europeansalessupported by elevated China EV export volume; 3. ChineseOEMslikelytocontinueshareincreaseasEuropeanproduction capacity added; 4. July China EV sales remainssoft y/y NEUTRAL Dan Levy +12125263212dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, US +12125263280jryoung@barclays.comBCI, US Chinese EV exports continued to be one of the key EVthemes in2Q, with Chinese OEMs seekingto export more vehicles amid weak sales in the domestic Chinesemarket.Western Europe hasbeen one of the main targets for Chinese OEMs, with high exports from China into the region andongoing plans from Chinese OEMs to localize production in Europe. In 2Q, China exported~2.5mn vehicles, up79% y/y and at record high volumes.NEVs accountedfor~58% of exportvolume,upfrom~53% in1Q26and~48% in4Q25. Elevated Chinese EV exports into Europe weremet with correspondingly high levels of consumerdemand, and sales of Chinese OEMs in Western Europe hit record highs in 2Q26, continuing thegrowth seen in '25. :ChineseOEMs (exVolvo+Polestar)sold229k EVs inWesternEurope in2Q26,up36%q/qandup141%y/y.Including Volvo/Polestar,sales were 296k,up33%q/qandup 86% y/y :Chinese OEMs (exVolvo+Polestar)accounted for17.9% ofWestern Europe EV sales in2Q26,up 240bps q/q from 15.5% in 1Q26, and up over 1000bps y/y. Including Volvo/Polestar, sharewas23.2%,up 260bps q/qand up910bps y/y :May'26 sawrecord high Chinese OEM (ex Volvo+Polestar) share of 18.4%,up from theprevious high of 17.1% in Mar'26, and roughly doubled y/y from 9.9% in May'25. IncludingVolvo/Polestar, May sharewas 23.6%, also above the prior peak of 21.9% in March :In regards to2Q EVsales,thetop selling Chinese OEMs in Western Europewere BYD,Volvo,Chery, Leapmotor, SAIC, and Geely; the majority of these OEMs saw notable q/q sales growthTesla, Hyundai, and Mercedes Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factorin making theirinvestment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and importantdisclosures beginning on page20.Completed:14-Aug-26, 06:01 GMT Released:14-Aug-26, 06:05 GMTRestricted -External Volvo) sold 123k units (+13% y/y),BYD 100k (+139% y/y), SAIC 100k (+33% y/y), Chery 86k(+279%),and Leapmotor32k (+487%).These5Chinese OEMs accounted for~12%of totalvehicle sales Looking ahead, we expect Chinese EVs to continueto expand their share, especially once theystart to ramp production within Europe, in part to avoid tariffs.The leading Chinese OEMs are4Q26',Cheryproduction in Spainto startthisyear?,Leapmotorproducingat STLA's plant inSpain as early as this year3,and Geely purchasing a portion of Ford's factory in Spain forproduction starting in'28.4 FIGURE3.ChineseOEM shareofWestern Europe EVsales (ex-Volvo/FIGURE4.Chinese OEM shareof Western EuropeEV sales (ex-Volvo/ Polestar) (Quarterly) Polestar) (Monthly) Julyearlylook-Penetrationlikelyflattishm/m Lookingat July,EVpenetration ratesaretrackingflattishm/mwhenaggregatingacrossthemajor regions, likelymaintaining global EV penetration to the high-20s (vs. July’25 at24.2%). The earlylook at Europe implies a slight increase in m/m EVuptake, based on reported datafrom key markets. .InFrance, JulyEVpenetration was~41%,upfrom36%in Juneand24% in July2025. .InGermany,JulyEVpenetrationwas~41%,upfrom39%in Juneand29%inJuly2025.InJanuary,Germany introduced a 3bn EV subsidy program,providing subsidies of1.5-6.0kthrough2029, and this has supported the y/y increase the EV penetration. .Inthe UK, July EVpenetration was~42%, down slightlyfrom43% in Junebutupfrom34% inJuly2025. Early data from the US indicates 6.7% EV penetration in July,downfrom7.4% in June.US EVpenetration remains depressed following the expiration of the s7.5k EVtax credit at the end ofSeptember2025 (with penetration around 10% priorto the phase-out).It remains tobe seenhowlong the EV hangoverwill last in the Us, but we would not be surprised to see it persistsforat least the next 1-2 years. BasedonpreliminaryCPCAdata,weestimateChinaEVpenetrationincreasedto~64.4%inJulyfrom 62.9% in June, setting another record high.CPCANEV retail sales were970k units in July, penetration is high, volumes remain below prior-year levels, with NEV sales down ~2% y/y andtotal retail sales down ~18% y/y, reflecting the continued impact of tighter subsidy conditions in2026.With penetration up onbut volume down m/m, China will likely have a more neutralimpacttom/mglobalEVpenetration. Juneglobal EV sales penetration (asa%of new