2Q26点评：增长故事完好，但利润率结构限制盈利调整

Hotels / Leisure/Gaming 2Q26 Review: Growth Story Intact, ButMargin Mix Tempers Upgrade Cycle SammiXu ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-5415 Atourdeliveredasolid2Q26revenuebeat,supportedbyresilientretailmomentum and continued supply-chain monetization.However,the stock fell 7.4% afterresults,aspositioninghadturnedmorepositivefollowingHWorld'searlierbeat-and-raise result and strong third-party retaildata ahead ofthe print.Inourview,themarketreactionreflectedlimitedscopeforearningsupgrades:revenueguidancewasraised,butmarginscameinslightlybelowexpectationsduetomixpressurefrom lower-margin supply-chain revenue and retail product mix changes. Thus,concerns around slower new hotel openings and weakeningRevPAR haveresurfaced, as investors we spoke with notedthat retail sales momentumcouldeventuallyfade,potentiallyleadingtoEPSpressure. In2Q26,revenuegrew41.4%YoYtoRmb3.49bn,ahead of our estimateofRmb3.3bnandBloombergconsensusofRmb3.2bn.Thebeatwasmainlydrivenbybusiness)inthemanachised hotelbusiness,whichgrew32.8%YoY.Adjusted netprofit increased 30.8% YoY to Rmb558mn, broadly in line with our Rmb557mnestimate.Adjusted net margin declined to 16.0%, below our 16.7%forecast, mainlydue to gross margin pressure from faster growth in the lower-margin supply-chainbusiness and mix changes within retail. As revenuestrengthappeared largelyanticipated beforetheprint,themodestmarginmissbecamethekeyinvestorconcern,particularlygivendebatesaroundretail growth sustainability and potentialdeceleration. Keyoperatingmetrics Atour's operating numbers were broadly in line with expectations.RevPARincreased 0.7%YoY, compared withour model of 1.0%growth,supported by a1.2% increase inADR,partly offset bya 0.3ppt decline in occupancy. Atour netadded 87hotels in thequarter,implying a slower-than-expectedopeningpace. Nevertheless, management maintained its full-year target of 400 netadditions,despiteonly160 net additions in1H26,as openings are expected toaccelerate in 2H26.The pipeline further increased to 811 hotels, whichmanagementthinkprovidesvisibilityonsecond-halfopeningstomeetthefull-yeartarget. Hotels / Leisure / GamingAtour Lifestyle Management raised 2026 retail revenuegrowthguidance to 40%YoY and lifted grouprevenuegrowthguidanceto30%YoY,fromtheprevious24-28%range.Webelievetheguidanceraisesupportstherevenuegrowthoutlook,butthekeydebateis likelyto shiftomargin deliveryandthequality ofearnings growthconsideringthesoftmacroenvironment. Atour Planet continued to deliver strong growth,helping ease concerns overa sharperslowdown afterrapidexpansion in2024-25,whenretail revenueincreased126.2%and67.0%,respectively.Thesegmentremainsanimportantdifferentiatorfor Atour versus traditional hotel peers, although investor focus is increasinglyshiftingfromtop-linemomentumto margin sustainability. In 2Q26,retail revenuegrew63.2%YoY, supported by the company's strongpillowfranchiseandfasterexpansionincomfortersandnewproducts.Accordingtomanagement,pillowsaccountedforc.50%ofretailsales,comfortersc.30%,andthebalancecamefrommattresses andsleepwear.Givenpillows carrythehighestmargin, the rising contribution from comforters and sleepwear led to modestmargin pressure.By our calculation, retail GPM edged down from 52.6% in 1Q26to 51.4% in 2Q26, but remained within management's guided range of 51-53%. Supply-chainmonetization:supports manachised revenue,butdilutes hotelmarginAtour continued to monetize its supply-chaincapabilities within the manachised hotelsegment.Weestimatesupply-chainrevenuegrewc.46%YoYin2Q26,the supply-chain business typically carries a lower margin of 16-17%, comparedwith group gross margin of over 40% and hotel business margin of over 30%.Assuch,while supply-chainmonetization supports revenue growth,itsfastergrowthis likelyto dilute overall hotel gross margin.Thus, investors may increasingly viewcontinued high-quality hotel openings and an improving RevPAR trend as moreimportant for an asset-light hotel business than relying on supply-chainmonetization todrive revenue growth. Valuationattractiveafterpullback;maintainBuyandUSs45TP Postresults,wehaveupdatedthemodelbased onthelatestguidanceand2Q26results.Wehaverevisedupthefull-yearrevenueby2%tofactorintherobustretaildue to the margin trend. Based on our adjusted net profit forecast, the stock istradingat 15.3xone-yearforward P/E,which wethink is attractiveaftertherecentpullbackpostearnings. As a niche player in the mid-to-high-end hotel segment, Atour remains wellpositioned for a robust three-yeargrowthtrajectory,supported by its dual growthengines: disciplined hotel network expansion, with a target of 2,000-3,000properties by2028,anda high-growth retail business thatcontinues to outperformmarket expectations.Wemaintain ourBuyrating andUSs45targetprice. Investorfeedback:positioning high into print; profit-taking driven by hotelppeningconcernsandmargindebate Following H World's strong beat-and-raisequarter, investor sentimenttoward the Hotels / Leisure / GamingAtourLifestyle alr