2026年二季度业绩符合预期 有望超额完成全年 robotaxi 收入目标
China Autos&Auto Technology 2Q Results In Line; On Track to ExceedFull-year 2026 Robotaxi Revenue Target BinWang ResearchAnalyst In linewithmarketexpectations,Pony.ai's2Q2026total revenueincreased69% +852-220-35496Wei Huang YoYto Uss 36.2 million,driven by strong growth in the company's"Robotaxiservices"business."Robotaxi services"revenue jumped691%YoYto USs 12.1million,with fare-charging revenue increasing>800%YoY,primarily driven bytheexpansionofPony'sRobotaxifleetfrom280vehicles in2Q2025to1,975vehiclesin2Q2026(versus1,500vehicles in1Q2026).Increased revenuecontributionsfrom the company's joint deployment model,including its partnerships withOnTimeMobilityand CroatianmobilitycompanyVerne,also supportedYoYandQoQgrowth."Robotruckservices"revenueincreased40%YoYtoUSs13.3million,driven by Pony's deepened collaboration with Sinotrans,while"Intelligentsolutions"revenue remainedbroadly flattish,increasing 4%YoYto Uss 10.8million.Overall grossmargin improved by1.4ppts YoYto 17.5%, supported by ahigherrevenue contributionfromtherelativelyhigher-marginRobotaxibusinessand joint deployment model.The company demonstrated significant operatingleverage,withtotaloperatingexpensesincreasingbyonly11%YoYdespite69%YoYrevenuegrowth.R&Dexpenses increased15%YoYtoUSs56.2million,whileSG&Aexpensesremainedbroadlyflattish,increasing1%YoYtoUss15.9million.Netloss aftertax narrowed 15%YoYto Uss 45.4million.However,afterallocatingUss14.5millionofnet incometonon-controllinginterests,comparedwitha Uss0.2millionnetlossattributabletonon-controllinginterestsin2Q2025,reportednetlossincreased13%YoYtoUSs59.8million. Research Associate+852-2203-7057 PonyExpectstoExceed2026RobotaxiRevenueTarget;OnTrackfor>3,500-VehicleFleet Buildingonstrongoperatingmomentum,managementexpressedconfidencethatPonywillexceedthefull-year2026"Robotaxiservices"revenuetargetofaboveUss58million set in 1Q2026.Given the company's USs 20.6million of "Robotaxiservices" revenue in 1H 2026, this implies an >81% HoH increase to USs 37.4millionin2H2026.Meanwhile,Pony'sglobalRobotaxifleetreached1,975vehiclesatend-2Q,upfrom1,500vehiclesatend-1Q,andthecompanyremainsontracktoachieve itsyear-endtargetofmorethan3,500vehicles.Continuedfleetexpansionacross China's tier-1 cities and incremental contributions from overseasdeploymentsshould supportfurtherrevenuegrowthin2H2026.Taking intoaccount the company's latest results and guidance, we raise our full-year 2026revenue forecast by 7% to Uss 165 million, and increase our gross marginassumptionby4.3pptsto16.5%.However,wealsoforecastaUss20million Autos&AutoTechnologyPony.ai Competition in China's Robotaxi market continues to intensify as technology companies,OEMs and mobilityplatforms accelerate commercial deployments.CATL,Hello andAnt Grouphave established Zaofu Intelligent Technology,a jointventurefocusedontheR&Dandcommercialapplicationof"Level4"autonomousdriving technology.Hello and Dongfeng Nissan's Venucia have also commencedmass production ofthe purpose-built"HR1"Robotaxi since July 2026,with initialdeployments planned in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other major cities,andoperations expected to coverat least 10 citiesduring2026-2027.Meanwhile,Geely,AFARlTechnologyandCaoCaoMobilityunveiledthepurpose-builtelectric"EVA Cab",while Momenta plans to launch Robotaxi services with SAiC-backedEnjoyGo in Shanghai and with Uber in Munich in 2026. Given the increasinglycompetitiveenvironment,welowerour2027-2030Robotaxifleetestimatesby7-14%to7.000/30,000/120,000/260,000vehicles,respectively.Asa result,wereduceour2027-2030"Robotaxiservices"revenueforecastsby3-12%,leadingtoa lower DCF-derived target price of USs 14.1 (from USs 18.0 previously) PonyExpandsUberPartnershiptoDeployOver2,oooRobotaxis inEuropePony expanded its collaboration with Uberto deploymorethan 2,ooo robotaxis across five European cities,with additional deployments planned inthe MiddleEast.This brings the total number of vehicles under agreements or innegotiationacross international markets to over4,oooRobotaxivehicles.Thecollaborationbegan inMay2025,whenPonyand Uberannounced plans tointroducePony'srobotaxis to internationalmarkets through the Uber platform.In 2026,the twocompanies partnered with Verne,to prepare for the launch of Europe's firstcommercial robotaxiserviceinZagreb,Croatia.BuildingontheZagrebrollout,thepartnershipwill expand to four additional European cities.Underthepartnership,Ponywill provideits"Level4"autonomous drivingtechnology,riderexperienceandoperational expertise,while Uberwillprovide customeraccessthrough its mobilityplatform,including booking,payment and customer service capabilities.Localfleetpartnersmayundertakeday-to-dayfleetoperations,withvehiclefunding andownershipdeterminedseparatelyforeachmarket.WebelievethismodelprovidesPonywitha relativelyasset-lightpathwaytoscaleits overseasrobotaxioperationsby combining its autonomous driving capabilities with Uber's global mobilityplatformand localpartners'fleet-operatingresources. Valuationand Risks W