中国：石油进口下滑并非仅由需求驱动

demand EconomicsAsia while we see rising chances of an earlier rate hike by Bank of Japan.The BoJ's JulySummary of Opinions reinforced a more hawkishpolicy stance, suggesting policymakers Tableof Contents case for a September rate hike. In China, external trade momentum stayed robust withinflationpressures softenedmorequicklythan expected amid weak domestic demand. InIndia, headline inflation remained above the RBI's target for a second month, while coreinflation stayed stickydespite easing fuel costs.China: Oil import slump overstates demand weakness volumes fell 13% yoy in the first seven months of the year, but refinery throughput, a bettermeasure of crude use, declined a more modest 8%,while domesticproductionremained stable.The gap reflects inventory drawdowns and a structural shift towardelectrification, with rising EV adoption increasingly displacing gasoline and dieseldemand. Other temporary factors, including squeezed refinery margins, refined-productexport curbs, and weak construction activity, also weighed on fuel consumption,particularly for refined fuels rather than petrochemicals. Looking ahead, easing exportcurbs should support a gradual recovery in crude imports, but electrification and still-elevated inventories are likelyto limit the rebound.Week ahead helen.qiao@bofa.comIzumi DevalierJapan EconomistBofAS Japan Rahul BajoriaIndia &ASEAN Economist BofAS IndiaTakayasu KudoJapan Economist In the coming three weeks, we turn our focus to the monetary policy meetings inIndonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and New Zealand along with aflurry of data releases Merill Lynch (Hong Kong)Anna ZhouChina & Asia Economist across the region. We expect Bl and BNM to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.75%and 2.75%, respectively. Meanwhile, we expect BSP and RBNZ to hike the repo rate by25 bps to 5.00% and 2.75%, respectively.On the data front, we expect China's IP growthto ease to 4.7% yoy in July, from 5.3% in June. FAl likely remained sluggish in July at -4.3% yoy (vs.-10.0% in June), although a softer base effect should provide some supportto the headline growth rate.Property investment remains under sustained pressure,while corporate capex is constrained by weak credit demand. Meanwhile, we expectretail sales growth to pick up modestly to 1.3% yoy in July from 1.0% in June. In Japanwe expect nominal goods exports to accelerate slightly to 20.8% yoy in July from 19.3%in June,supported by a favorable base effect in auto exports and high semiconductorprices driven by Al-related demand. In India, we expect Q2 2026 GDP growth to comearound 7.5% yoy,given the resilience seen in high frequency indicators in the Junequarter despite the West Asia disruption and sub-normal monsoon concerns Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)anna.zhou@bofa.comKai Wei AngASEANEconomist Merrill Lynch (Singapore)Nick Stenner, CFA Australia &NZ EconomistMerrill Lynch (Australia)Ting Him Ho, CFA AsiaEconomistMerrll Lynch (Hong Kong)Johnny Liu, CFA Australia & NZ EconomistMerrill Lynch (Australia)Smriti Mehra India EconomistBofAS IndiaYvonne He China & Asia EconomistMerilI Lynch (Hong Kong)See Team Page for List of Analysts Seeacronyms andabbreviationsatthe end of this report This Week in FocusCentral bank decisions remain the focus in the region, as RBA stayed on hold this week while we see rising chances of an earlier rate hike by Bank of Japan. The Bol's JulySummary of Opinions reinforced a more hawkish policy stance, suggesting policymakerscase for a September rate hike. In China, external trade momentum stayed robust withinflation pressures softened more quickly than expected amid weak domestic demand. InIndia, headline inflation remained above the RBI's target for a second month, while coreinflation stayed sticky despite easing fuel costs. Latest data suggest external trade momentum remained robust, while inflation following a strong 27.0% increase in June, broadly in line with market expectations.High-tech exports continued to outperform, expanding 52.9% yoy and contributing toabout half of the headline export growth. Looking ahead, we expect the globalsemiconductor upcycle to remain intact, continuing to support demand for high-techproducts and intermediate goods. only 0.5% yoy (vs. 1.2% in June). On a sequential basis, CPl inflation contracted by 0.1%mom. Core inflation came in at 0.9% yoy (vs. 1.0% in June). PPl inflation also trailedconsensus, rising only 3.5% yoy (vs. 4.1% in June). Going forward, with the persistentweak domestic demand and the fading of gold price base effect, we may see continuedpressures in core CPl inflation as well as PPI inflation for consumer goods. Japan:JulyMPMSummaryofOpinionssuggestfasterratehikesThe Bank of Japan released the Summary of Opinions (SoO) from the July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting, when the BoJ voted 8-1 to keep the policy rate unchanged at1.0%. Consistent with the message from the hawkish hold in July, the Summary ofOpinions suggests that the focus of monetary policy ha