乌干达：精选问题

UGANDA SELECTED ISSUES This paperonUgandawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. Itis based on the information available at the time it was completedonMay 28,2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. UGANDA SELECTED ISSUES May 28, 2026 Prepared By Jean Christine A. Armas, Daphne Babirye, andAlex Vaval Pierre-Charles, and Haonan Qu. Approved By(African Department) CONTENTS UGANDA’S GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD CURVE: STRUCTURE, DRIVERS, ANDPOLICY IMPLICATIONS________________________________________________________________ 4 A. Introduction __________________________________________________________________________4B. An Overview of Uganda’s Treasury Market____________________________________________5C. Empirical Analysis _____________________________________________________________________7D. Fisher‑Style Yield Decomposition _____________________________________________________8E. Nelson-Siegel Yield Curve Analysis__________________________________________________ 11F. Conclusion and Policy Discussion ___________________________________________________ 13 FIGURES 1. Government Financing and Treasury Auctions ________________________________________52. Sold to Offer Ratio in Treasury Auctions ______________________________________________63. Secondary Market Trading Activities __________________________________________________74. Evolution of Uganda’s Yield Curve ____________________________________________________75. Yield Decomposition (1-Y Bill)_________________________________________________________86. Bond Yield Decomposition ____________________________________________________________97. Credit Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Factors ____________________________________ 108. Nelson Siegel Estimation Fit_________________________________________________________ 119. Nelson-Siegel Factor Estimates _____________________________________________________ 1210. Estimated Changes in Yields from CBR_____________________________________________ 12 TABLES 1. Variable Description________________________________________________________________________ 142. Credit Risk Premium Factor Estimation Results _____________________________________________ 143. Nelson-Siegel Factor Estimation Results ___________________________________________________ 15 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 16 FINANCIAL DEEPENING: UNPACKING BARRIERS FOR STRONGER GROWTH ____________ 17 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________________ 17B. Private Sector Credit in Uganda ___________________________________________________________ 18C. Bank Intermediation and Operational Efficiency ___________________________________________ 22D. Demand-Side Barriers to Financial Deepening_____________________________________________ 28E. Financial Deepening: Progress and Next Steps ____________________________________________ 30F. Key Messages _____________________________________________________________________________ 35 FIGURES 1. Private Sector Credit and Economic Performance in EAC Region ___________________________ 192. Evolution of Private Sector Credit (PSC)-to-GDP in EAC Region ____________________________ 193. Private Sector Credit: Trend-Cycle Decomposition and Sectoral Contributions _____________ 204. Bank Intermediation Efficiency Indicators __________________________________________________ 235. Gross NPLs to Gross Loans in the EAC Region______________________________________________ 246. Deposit Mobilization and Private Sector Crowding Out ____________________________________ 257. Bank Operational Efficiency Indicators in EAC Region ______________________________________ 278. Operational Cost Drivers and Cost-Reduction Efforts ______________________________________ 289. Financial Inclusion in Uganda and the EAC _________________________________________________ 2910. Income Patterns in Uganda _______________________________________________________________ 3011. Access to Formal Financial Services in Uganda____________________________________________ 3112. FinTechs in Uganda _______________________________________________________________________ 3113. Impact of CRB on Sectoral Credit Allocation ______________________________________________ 3214. Government Targeted Interventions ______________________________________________________ 33 TABLES 1. Macrofinancial Correlates of Private Credit Depth__________________________________________ 222. EAC Comparison of Prudential Parameters _________________________________________________ 26 ANNEXES I. Key Developments in Uganda’s FinTech Sector_