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New Zealand: Selected Issues

金融2022-05-13IMF变***
New Zealand: Selected Issues

© 2022 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 22/139 NEW ZEALAND SELECTED ISSUES This Selected Issues paper on New Zealand was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on April 28, 2022. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org Price: $18.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. May 2022 NEW ZEALAND SELECTED ISSUES Approved By Asia and Pacific Department Prepared by Pragyan Deb, Yosuke Kido, and Narayanan Raman (all APD), with additional inputs from Ioana Hussiada and assistance from Nadine Dubost (both APD). TRANSITORY OR PERSISTENT? THE RECENT SURGE IN NEW ZEALAND’S INFLATION____________________________________________________________________________ 3 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________ 3 B. Recent Developments in New Zealand’s Inflation: Above the Target Range __________ 4 C. Disentangling the Drivers of the Surge in Inflation: A Sign and Zero Restriction Approach _______________________________________________________________________________ 7 D. What Do One Hundred Items Say About Slack? Cyclically Sensitive Inflation. ______ 10 E. Uncertainty Ahead _________________________________________________________________ 12 F. Summary and Policy Discussion ____________________________________________________ 16 References ____________________________________________________________________________ 17 BOXES 1. Housing-Related Inflation in New Zealand ___________________________________________ 8 2. Wage Inflation in New Zealand ____________________________________________________ 15 TABLE 1. Identification of Structural Shocks ____________________________________________________ 9 ANNEXES I. Structural Vector Autoregression with Sign and Zero Restrictions __________________ 19 II. The Impact of Fiscal Shocks on Inflation ___________________________________________ 20 III. Model-based Inflation Projection __________________________________________________ 21 IV. Impulse Response of Inflation Expectations to Temporary Shocks ________________ 22 CONTENTS April 28, 2022 NEW ZEALAND 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ADDRESSING THE HOUSING CYCLE ________________________________________________________ 23 A. Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________ 23 B. New Zealand House Prices in an International Context _____________________________________ 25 C. Drivers of Housing Price Dynamics and Outlook ___________________________________________ 27 D. Outlook and Macroeconomic Impact ______________________________________________________ 31 E. Policy Options ______________________________________________________________________________ 33 References ____________________________________________________________________________________ 36 Table 1. Impact of Interest Rate Changes on Interest Servicing Burden _____________________________ 33 ANNEX I. Structural Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions ____________________________________ 37 ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN NEW ZEALAND ______________________________________ 38 A. Background and Recent Developments ____________________________________________________ 38 B. Outlook ____________________________________________________________________________________ 39 C. Policies to Support GHG Mitigation ________________________________________________________ 42 D. Policies to Support Adaptation to Climate Change ________________________________________ 47 E. Conclusions ________________________________________________________________________________ 48 BOX 1. New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme _________________________________________________ 43 NEW ZEALAND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 TRANSITORY OR PERSISTENT? THE RECENT SURGE IN NEW ZEALAND’S INFLATION1 Like in many other advanced economies, New Zealand’s inflation has accelerated recently, reaching 6.9 percent in 2022Q1, well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s inflation target range. Our empirical analysis finds that the recent surge in inflation is driven by both global and domestic factors, with global factors such as supply disruptions playing a larger role recently. At the same time, inflation for cyclically sensitive items increased recently, confirming the country’s strong cyclical position and justifying continued monetary tightening. Going forward, inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term and slow down toward the target range after that. That said, high uncertainty remains as commodity prices have been volatile, and inflation expectations can react to u

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