小鹏汽车月度海外销售监测：2026年6月

RatingBuy Company Update AsiaChina ConsumerAutos & Auto Technology XPeng Monthly Overseas Sales Monitor:June 2026 Valuation & Risks Bin WangResearch Analyst+852-220-35496 This monthly chartbook product - "XPeng monthly overseas auto sales monitor"- tracks the overseas sales of XPeng, a leading Chinese automaker.In June 2026, XPeng recorded 7,533 units of overseas sales (+99.3% YoY, +15.8%MoM). For January to June 2026, XPeng recorded 31,599 units of overseas sales(+69.0% YoY). Wei HuangResearch Associate+852-2203-7057 10 August 2026Autos & Auto TechnologyXPeng XPeng Reuters: 9868.HKBloomberg: 9868 HK Income Statement (CNYm) Company Profile XPeng is a leading electric vehicle manufacturer in China,founded in 2015 and dual-listed in the US and Hong Kong.Primarily targeting the mid- to high-end segment in China'spassenger vehicle market, XPeng offers a diversifiedportfolio of BEV sedans and SUVs with prices mainlyranging from RMB 150,000 to RMB 400,000. Boastingindustry-leading autonomous driving technology, XPengaspires to provide a differentiated smart mobility experience giants such as Volkswagen and Didi.Price Performance Cash Flow (CNYm) Cash flow from operationsNet CapexFree cash flowEquity raised/(bought back)Dividends paidNet inc/(dec) in borrowingsOther investing/financing cash flowsNet cash flowChange in working capital Margin Trends Balance Sheet (CNYm) Cash and other liquid assetsTangible fixed assetsGoodwill/intangible assetsAssociates/investmentsOther assetsTotal assetsInterest bearing debtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesShareholders' equityMinoritiesTotal shareholders' equityNet debt Key Company Metrics Sales growth (%)DB EPS growth (%)EBITDA Margin (%)EBIT Margin (%)Payout ratio (%)ROE (%)Capex/sales (%)Capex/depreciation (x)Net debt/equity (%)Net interest cover (x) Bin Wang+852 220 35496wang.bin@db.com Investment Thesis Outlook XPeng is a leading smart electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer in China, demonstratingclear leadership in developing full-stack autonomous driving (AD) technology. Thispositions the company favorably to capitalize on the growing demand for intelligentvehicles, as consumers increasingly prioritize AD capabilities. Leveraging its pro-prietary software and closed-loop data capability, XPeng's Navigation Guided Pilot(XNGP) achieved nationwide availability on all public roads in July 2024, with fur-ther end-to-end large model applications being implemented. XPeng also benefitsfrom cost leadership in AD hardware. XPeng plans a rapid cadence of launches in2026, including new SUVs such as the Mona "D02" (large-size), Mona "D03" (mid-size coupe), "GX" (full-size), and "G02" (ultra-large-size), as well as new ExtendedRange Electric Vehicle (EREV) variants of the "G6" SUV, "P7+" sedan, and "G7" SUV.This aggressive product strategy is projected to boost XPeng's full-year 2026 salesvolume by 23% YoY, reaching 530k units. Buy. Valuation Our DCF-derived target price implies 1.1x 2026e EV/sales. Despite inherent DCFshortcomings, we deem it the most suitable valuation method for a high-growth,early-stage company like XPeng. We choose a five-year forecast horizon for ourDCF, which should capture the full maturation of the two mega trends in China'sauto industry—electrification and 'intelligentization'. We employ a 7.5% WACC,based on a 3.1% cost of debt, a 3.5% risk-free rate, a 6.0% market risk premium, abeta of 1.0, a 15% income tax rate, a 70.5% equity-to-capital ratio, and a 0.5% termi-nal growth rate (TGR), aligning with our regional coverage. This 1.1x 2026e EV/salesmultiple is largely in-line with XPeng's average 12-month forward EV/sales over thepast 12 months. Risks Key downside risks: 1) Delays in updates to XPeng's pivotal "VLA 2.0" autonomousdriving (AD) system, 2) New competitor entry within XPeng's pricing segment. Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.SeeImportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. Im