上汽集团（自主品牌）2026年5月月度海外销售监测

Company Update AsiaChina ConsumerAutos & Auto Technology SAIC (local brand) Monthly OverseasSales Monitor: May 2026 Valuation & Risks Bin WangResearch Analyst+852-220-35496 This monthly chartbook product - "SAIC monthly overseas auto sales monitor" -tracks the overseas sales of SAIC, a leading Chinese automaker. In May 2026, SAIC group recorded 129,541 units of overseas sales (up 32.5% YoYand -3.5% MoM), with 5M 2026 group overseas sales reaching 588,741 units (up45.9% YoY). Excluding SAIC VW and SAIC GM volume, SAIC local brands salesvolume (including Baojun, IM Motors, Maxus, MG, Roewe, SAIC Motor, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Shangjie and Wuling) reached 96,305 units in May 2026 (up 40.6% YoY andflat MoM), with 5M 2026 sales volume reaching 425,237 units (up 63.3% YoY). Wei HuangResearch Associate+852-2203-7057 8 July 2026Autos & Auto TechnologySAIC Income Statement (CNYm) Company Profile SAIC is the largest auto group in China with 5,020,865units sales volume in 2023. SAIC is a prxy for the Chinapassenger vehicle sector, given its balanced brand mix (jointventures with GM, VW, and Roewe, MG, IM, Rising, Maxuslocal brands), product portfolio, and vertical integration incomponent supplier chain. Price Performance Cash Flow (CNYm) Margin Trends Balance Sheet (CNYm) Growth & Profitibility Key Company Metrics Bin Wang+852 220 35496wang.bin@db.com Investment Thesis Outlook SAIC group is a Chinese SoE (state-owned enterprise) local brand automaker andthe Chinese partner for two global automakers in China. At the group level, SAICwas the second-largest auto company in China in 2025. Over the past few years,nearly all of SAIC's net profit has come from investment income (from JVs withglobal vehicle makers and component makers), while local brand operationsincurred sizable losses given their poor profitability. Looking ahead, we expectinvestment income to decline over time, due to: (a) rising exposure to the loss-mak-ing NEV business, and (b) declining sales volume due to competition from local Chi-nese brands, which are experiencing improving quality and brand image. Mean-while, the local brand operation is witnessing increasing gross margin thanks to itsreduced per-unit cost on a fast-growing scale and an improving product mix, withmore volume from high-margin overseas operations. Given SAIC group is expectedto face a mixed bag ahead, we rate it at Hold. Valuation Our target price is derived via a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Despite theshortcomings of the DCF valuation method, we think it is the most appropriatemethod for valuing growing companies. We apply a five-year forecast time horizonfor our DCF, which captures the full maturation of the two mega trends of China'sauto industry – electrification and intelligentization. We apply an 7.4% WACC forour equity valuation. Our key assumptions include a 3.4% cost of debt, a 2.5% risk-free rate, a 6.0% market risk premium, a beta of 1.0, a 15% income-tax rate, an84.3% equity/equity + debt ratio, and a 0.5% terminal growth rate (TGR), consistentwith our regional coverage. Our target price implies a 17.4x 2026E P/E, a premiumto SAIC's 9.0x historical average 12-month forward P/E and to that of other Chineseautomaker peers. We attribute this to SAIC's increasing exposure to the high-growth NEV segment and export business. Risks Key downside risks are: a) a weaker SAIC local-brand new energy vehicle perform-ance (Roewe+MG+IM+Rising brands operation), due to sector-wide price compe-tition, and b) weaker-than-expected margin from its joint ventures, due to their rela-tively weak new-product offering. Key upside risks are: a) faster-than-expectedexport volume thanks to its new smart EV products' debut in overseas markets, andb) faster-than-expected autonomous driving (AD) capability improvement, espe-cially for the urban area NOA from IM brand. AD has become a key decision-makingfactor when customers make a purchase. Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to