大宗商品繁荣、生产率与资源错配：来自智利行政数据的证据

Commodity Booms,Productivity, andMisallocation:Evidencefrom Chile’sAdministrative Data Prepared byPablo Filippi, Ryan Kim, Nan Li, María JesúsPérez, Younghun Shim WP/26/163 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026JUL IMFWorking Paper Research Department Commodity Booms, Productivity, and Misallocation:Evidence from Chile’s Administrative DataPrepared byPablo Filippi, Ryan Kim, Nan Li, María Jesús Pérez, Younghun Shim* Authorized for distribution by Petia TopalovaJuly 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:We study how commodity booms affect productivity using administrative microdata from Chilecombining firm exports by product and destination, employer-employee records, and firm-to-firm productionnetworks. Exploiting differential Chinese demand across Chileancommodity products, we measure firms’exposure to the boom and trace its effects on productivity and resource allocation. We find three mechanisms.First, more exposed firms experience larger revenue increases but no differential productivity gains, channelingrevenues into wages and materials. Second, among exposed firms, low-productivity firms expand employmentwhile high-productivity firms do not, hiring workers from more productive employers. Third, domestic supplierswith greater indirect exposure show larger sales and productivity gains. We develop a model withheterogeneous export wedges and labor market frictions in which commodity booms can reduce sectoralproductivity by exacerbating input misallocation, consistent with firm-level and aggregate evidence. Calibratedto Chile, this mechanism explains half of the mining TFP decline from 2005 to 2013. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Filippi, P., R. Kim, N. Li, M. J. Pérez, and Y. Shim. 2026.Commodity Booms,Productivity, and Misallocation: Evidence from Chile’s Administrative Data. IMF Working Paper WP/26/163.Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. *We are grateful to Javier Cravino, Charles Engel, Fariha Kamal, Andres Fernandez Martin, JorgeMiranda-Pinto, Pierre-OlivierGourinchas, Federico Huneeus, Petia Topalova, Veronica Rappoport, FelipeSaffie, Martin Uribe, Ariel Weinberger, RodrigoWagner and Frank Zhang, as well as participants atGeorge Washington University, IMF, Peking University (NSD), 4th Tokyo–Taipei–Seoul MacroeconomicsNetwork Workshop, AMES-China, BanRep/FLAR/IMFER conference, CEBRA workshop, KIEP-KIFA-KIFConference, Korean Society for Macroeconomic Dynamics, PKU Guanghua Macro Workshop, and NorthAmericanEconometrics Society Meetings for invaluable discussions and comments. We thank Pablo AndresVega Olivares foroutstanding research assistance and the Servicio de Impuestos Internos (SII) for facilitatingaccess to administrative data. Thisproject is partially funded by the Ministry of Economy and Finance ofthe Government of Korea. The views expressed in thispaper are those of the authors and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the Korean government, the Ministry of Finance ofChile, the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. Commodity Booms, Productivity,and Misallocation:Evidence fromChile’s Administrative Data Prepared byPablo Filippi, Ryan Kim, Nan Li, María Jesús Pérez,Younghun Shim 1Introduction The global commodity price fluctuations—including periods of sustained price change knownas commodity super-cycles—have long been an important driver of economic activity inemerging economies. A substantial literature documents their effects on output volatility andlong-run economic growth. Yet, how these booms affect productivity of commodity-exportingcountries remains unclear, with several potential mechanisms pointing in different directions.Understanding these mechanisms matters for a large number of resource-dependent developingcountries, from copper and lithium exporters in Latin America and Africa to oil producersin the Middle East. For these countries, whether commodity windfalls translate into lastingproductivity gains, rather than transitory income, shapes long-run development.Thesequestions are newly relevant as commodity markets appear to have entered a new super-cycle,driven by the global energy transition and rising demand for critical minerals. This paper provides micro-level evidence on how commodity booms affect firm produc-tivity and resource allocation. We focus on Chile, a commodity-dependent economy thatexperienced a striking pattern of productivity dynamics during the 2000s: the China-drivencommodity boom generated massive export revenue increases, yet agg