法拉利：数据说了算

+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Rating +442076767254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com ORACE +44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Ferrari: The numbers do the talking watchers.Ferrari hadsignaled on its 2Q26 roundupcall on25Junethatthe quarter hadbeengoodandexpectationsgoingintotheactual2Q26printhadbeenhighwiththeVisibleAlpha (VA)consensusforthe adj.EBIT margin at 30.6%,almosta wholepoint above the29.7% reported in 1Q26, implying 30.1% for 1H26E.The number one question we weregetting was would Ferrari raise its FY26 guidance atthe2Q26 stage?We wereagnosticabouttheraiseandweremoreconcernedwithmanagementmessaging,whichhadbeena source of some contention atthe1Q26 stage on 5May 2026 (link). In the event, Ferrari's12% yoy rise in ASPto 484k per unit was 7%higher than the Visible Alpha consensus,while605m of adj.EBIT was 6% ahead of the VAconsensus, drivingthemargin to31.2%,so some60bps above the consensus.Exhibit1FY26 guidance for revenue,EBITDAandEBIT were slightly raised causing there to be no change in the anticipated EBITDA and EBITmargins of≥39.0% and≥29.5% respectively.EPS and IndustrialFCFguidancewere alsoraised accordingly. Thenumberstalk Numerous unsuccessfulattempts weremadeduringthepost results calltodrawan explanation frommanagement aboutthe implicit 2H26adjusted EBIT marginguide of 28.5-29.3% if Ferrari stuck strictly to the reiterated FY26 guidance of ≥29.5%(so 29.5% to 29.9%).However, there is no disguising that Ferrari printed a 10.6% constantcurrencyincreaseinrevenuein2Q26notwithstandinga3.7%decreaseinshipments.Thisachievementshouldbeconsideredinthecontextofthe5%revenueCAGRto2030thatwasset out last year in its 5-yearplan.(Continued on Page Two) InvestmentImplications Ferrari has unprecedented visibility on its sales thanks to an orderbook thatnow covers theentirety of 2027.Limited exposure to Mainland China, the progressive de-risking of LuceBEV concerns (link),further proof points surrounding Ferrari Supercar developments (link),andour increasedconvictionthatFerrari couldraiseguidanceagain atthe3Q26stagehavecollectively boosted our confidence inFerrari's earnings power.Wemovetoa 38xtargetmultiple (from 35x) and apply thisto our12mblended forwardEPS estimate.This gives us a400pricetarget which on a current EUR/USDof 1.15yields a $460PT(our PTwas$402previously).We continueto rateFerrari Outperform AsPstocontinuetorise.Whatwas morereassuring wasmanagement's confirmationthat ASPswould continueto improvein 2H26,as afunctionofhigherthanpreviouslyanticipated personalization rates,the continuing strong impactof SpecialSeriescars (296 Speciale Family, joined next year by the 12 Cilindri Manuale), the sequential quarterly increase in F80 supercar sales,andthestrongershareof USshipments inthemixafterhitting alow in2Q26. morethanoffsettheasanticipated3.7%drop inshipments.This wasafunctionofmodelchangeoversthatparticularlyreducedthelevelofUSshipments.Weacknowledgethat2H26will seeasequential increaseinD&A(principallyamortizationofpastpotentialfor anotherFY26guidanceupgrade at the 3Q26 stage notwithstanding management's current reluctancetodeviatetoo far from the revenue and margin trajectory outlined during lastyear's contentious 9 October CMD (link). palpable, especially after its nearest luxury benchmark, Hermes had seen its stock plunge by 11% the day before after slightlymissing consensus expectations on Leather Goods and Saddlery growthforthe samequarter.Thestock subsequentlysee-day up 3% in New York trading. Re-assertingthe Ferrari superpower Ferrari's ability to allocate key models and thus control revenue and margins based offits longcoverage of its order book (nowcovered to the end of 2027)had long been seenas its superpower, driving itsvaluationexpectations and criticallythat of Hermes.Webelieve that Ferrari knows deepdown that it wastoo cautious in its 2026-30revenue and earnings projections but cannot yet walk them back.We believe that the 2Q26results that wehave just describedalgorithm remains intact in the face of extraordinary geopolitical events. F80:deliveries commenced in 4Q25.Howmanywere shipped?Ferrari no longer provides further granularity on its earningsthat Supercar plus Icona (Daytona SP3)comprised 1% of total 2025 shipments of 13,640 units.We alreadyknow that DaytonaSP3shipmentswerearound177unitsin9M25andnomorewereshippedfromthenon,sothesewouldalreadyaccountfor1.3% of all 2025 shipments.So,if wego up to say 1.5% (to allowfor rounding down), that would imply up to~205 combinedshipments of the Daytona SP3 and ofF80,implying that≤28 units of the F80 were delivered.And the F80figure could belower.Weassumeanestimateof20unitsweredeliveredin4Q25. unitfigure is somewherebetween18and51units.Based off assumptions regarding the cadence of theF80'sramp upandhowgroupmargin progresses in theyear, we estimate that35units were delivered in1Q26.In2Q26, Supercars comprised1%ofthe3,366units,implyingth