系统性资金流动对黄金的重要性

Precious Blog What importance for systematic flow? Research Analyst+65-6423-7510 gold weakness from April to June. systematic flow, since the negative residual since April is associated withRSI readingsbelow50. near-termaccumulationprospectonthepartofsystematic accounts. ETFflowthat ismore powerful in explaining goldbehaviourthan eitherone alone(Figures 1-3).It is also worth repeatingthat these two demand segments are themost price inelastic, in sharp contrast to jewellery demand (Precious Blog:Inelastic demand strength iskey for gold,18 Nov 2025). Official +ETF demand consumed 48%of January supply,dropping to -3% ConstructingamonthlypicturesinceDecemberofthecombinedflows,weseethat the CB+ETFflow has fluctuated, consuming anastoundingly high48% ofchangeindemandfromthese investorgroups,droppingtoa lowof-3%of supplyin March 2026. Precious Blog SinceMarch,it has fluctuated between 0-29%,assumingQ2officialdemandisunchanged fromQ1.Howeverthetrajectoryof theseflows ontheirowndoes notappear sufficientto explain gold market weakness sinceApril. Using the combination of official + ETF flow data and gold month-on-monthchanges in average monthlyprice, we can see a negative gap in gold performancein April through July (month to date)Figure 4, compared to the Dec-Marrelationship.To plug the flow gap,neither CFTC futures positioning nor Asiangold imports seem likely candidates because these were neutral to net positivesover this timeframe. SystematicflowisabettercandidateWhat may help to explain the difference is rules-based, trend-following systematic flow. Using the linear regression between the two line series in Figure4 the negative residual since April is associated with RSl readings below 50,Figure 5.In other words, theremay bereason to suspect thatalgorithmic (selling)flow may have contributed to gold performance since April, where gold appearsweakerthan official and ETFflow imply it should be. We plan to investigate methods of modeling rules-based investment activity laterin the year. This could lead to results which can be leveraged to gain a fullerunderstanding of the market, and help to plug gaps like those seen in Figure 4. Emergenceanddeterminism Thepotentialforpriceactiontoinfluenceinvestorflowandviceversa suggestsaeconomic data releases. Here it may be helpful to bring in concepts of emergence and determinism.Emergence may be applicable because price history (e.g., trend and technicalmeasures likeRSl,MACD)arethe outcome of thecollectiveactions of investors,which in turn affects the behaviour of investors (i.e.,bidirectional causation)Systems that display emergent properties are often be assumed to be non-deterministic (i.e.,future states not uniquely determined by current state)However, these concepts are distinct, and emergence does not necessarily implynondeterminism. Precious Blog higher-level pattern or behavior that arises from interactions among simplercomponents.Whether that emergent behavior is deterministic depends on theunderlying system." Emergent properties can arise in systems with stochasticelements,likeeconomic systems,andinthesecasestheemergenceinheritssomeoftenconflateemergencewithnondeterminismbecausecomplexdeterministicsystems can be chaotic (whereby tiny differences in initial conditions lead tovastly different outcomes), computationally irreducible (no shortcut calculationsarepossibleasidefromafullsystemsimulation),and/orstatistical (outcomescan60.8%236,449 FY26E are deterministic, it would seem fair to say at least that there is an appearance ofnondeterminism.This may only be because the process of price formation issufficiently complex as to defy attempts to model it, owing to chaotic, If that is true then there is all the more reason to develop a better understandingof systematic flow, which may help us to complete the flow picture over Apr-July(Figure 4). As of 24-July, gold 30-day RSl remains at 42.7, too low to suggest anyBVPS Thelast point would be that if we were to arrive at some formulation of systematicflow, then it seems likely it would also have shown strong accumulation in theDec-Feb period when 30-day RSl was much above 50. That raises the question11.6% Precious Blog Appendix 1 The views expressed inthis reportaccurately reflect thepersonal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in this report. Michael Hsueh. Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local companies,and other sources.For further information regarding disclosures relevantto Deutsche Bank Research,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppage onourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCCDisclosures.Asidefrom withinthisreport, important risk and conflict disclosurescan alsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investors arestrong