亚太食品饮料：日本食品在美国：龟甲万放缓而味之素召回恢复持续

Japan Food in the USA: Kikkoman slowing while Ajinomoto recallrecovery continues - Nielsen data to July 11th In this July US Nielsen digest, we review the latest trends for Nissin, Toyo Suisan, Kikkoman,Ajinomoto and Yakult. Key Japanese food categories continued to outperform the overallUS prepared foods market (value +4.6% vs. 1.6% over the last 3mth). In Instant Noodles,Nissin's volume decline improved to -2.3% over the latest 4 weeks, broadly in line withToyo Suisan (-2.5%). Toyo Suisan maintained strong value growth, however, with ongoingimpact from last year’s price increases, while the pricing impact remained more modest forNissin. Kikkoman Soy Sauce growth slowed from +6% (12 wks) to +4% (4wks) as price/mix softened, and Private Label gained share. Ajinomoto's overall growth remained weakas a result of product recalls, but Frozen Dumpling growth remained healthy (+4%). Yakultreturned to growth (+3%)driven by strong price/mix, but capacity constraints continue tolimit medium-term volume upside. Euan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com Hao Wang, CFA+852 2123 2627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com Mufei Gao+81 3 6777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com Makoto Morozumi+81 3 6777 6972makoto.morozumi@bernsteinsg.com Instant Noodles: Toyo Suisan last 12/4wks value +10.1%/+9.0%, Nissin +1.9%/+1.8%:Nissin's volume decline improved to -2.3% from -3.2% last month, broadly in linewith Toyo Suisan's -2.5%. Pricing remained supportive for both with Nissin price/mix at+4.2% and Toyo Suisan at +11.8%. While we expect Nissin's volume trajectory to improvefollowing the imminentBold Taste of Tokyoproduct launches, Toyo Suisan momentum islikely to moderate as the company cycles last July’s price increases. Samyang’s 4wk valuegrowth slowed to +29%, still strong but materially lower than the >100% 2025 run rate. Kikkoman - US Foods last 12/4wks value +6.3%/+4.3%, US Wholesale (JFC) +3.4%/+3.4%:Soy Sauce category value growth improved slightly to 4% over the last4wks from +3% in June, with volume growth improvement. Kikkoman Soy Sauce delivered+4.4% value growth over the latest 4 weeks, in line with the category, with price/mixcoming down to +0.4% from +5% last month. Kikkoman broadly maintained its volumeshares while Conagra continued to lose shares (-100bps) to Private Label which has beensacrificing price/mix. Rice category growth momentum moderately improved (vol/val/pricemix -3.5%/+2.4%/+6.1% last 3mths), and JFC value growth outperformed the category(+3.2%) with price/mix going up to +4% over the last 3 months. Ajinomoto - last 12/4wks value +0.8%/+0.2%:Frozen Dumplings value growthremained healthy (+4%) over the last 4wks and Frozen Handheld Entrees seem recoveredfrom last autumn’s supply chain disruption with volume growth accelerating (+8%) whileprice/mix was still weak (-12%). Product recall related impacts continued to moderate, withFrozen Complete Meals volume growth returned to flat, while Frozen Rice volume remainedunder pressure (-9.7% over the last 4 weeks). We expect Ajinomoto’s sell-in (and Aji’s P&Limpact) to look better than this, however, as the channel rebuilds inventory. Yakult - last 12/4wks value -0.1%/+3.0%:value returned to growth in the latest 4-week period from -5% in June, driven by strong price/mix (+5%) offsetting the weakvolume (-2%). However, we expect growth to remain constrained until new capacity comesonline as the company continues to operate at full production capacity. Yakult’s volume andvalue growth continued to outstrip Activia (12/4 wks value -10.1%/-8.5%), and Yakult’svalue share relative to Danone’s Activia brand now sits at 96%. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate: •Nissin Outperformand with aTarget Price of ¥4,700(model link).•Toyo Suisan Market-Performwith aTarget Price of ¥11,600(model link).•Kikkoman Market-Performwith aTarget Price of ¥1,600(model link).•Ajinomoto Outperformwith aTarget Price of ¥7,100(model link).•Yakult Outperformwith aTarget Price of ¥3,600(model link). DETAILS Key Categories for Japan Coverage Companies YoY Value Growth INSTANT NOODLES - NISSIN & TOYO SUISAN Instant Noodles account for 100% of both Nissin’s US value and Toyo Suisan’s value, accrediting to Nielsen, but approximately25% of Nissin value is generated by premium variants. EXHIBIT 9:Nissin’s yoy value grew 2% over the last 4weeks, offset by the weak volume with price increasecontinuing to be reflected EXHIBIT 11:Toyo Suisan’s value growth momentumcontinued on the back of price hike from July EXHIBIT 10:Toyo Suisan’s Premium Instant Noodles aretoo small to be captured separately in the Nielsen data EXHIBIT 12:Nissin and Toyo Suisan’s volume share wererelatively stable in the last 3 months KIKKOMAN US FOOD Kikkoman’s US food division is primarily driven by Soy Sauce which accounts for 56% of LTM value, according to Nielsen data,followed by Asian Sauce at c. 25%. This section does not include categories sold by Kikkoman’s JFC Wholesale business (seenex