对南亚新材料的电话解读：建滔积层板的正面映射

Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888.HK) Read acrossfromCitiCall withNanyaNewMaterial CatalystWatch:Upside,expires02-AUG-26Price (22Jul2616:10)HK$40.26Target priceHK$130.00Expectedsharepricereturn222.9%Expected dividend yield3.8%Expectedtotalreturn226.8%MarketCapHK$126,877MUS$16,180M posting a 1H26profitalert.Keytakeaways were1)expectationofcontinued increase inASPforCCLande-glass fabric during2H26E,2)thetight supplyofe-glassfabricshouldcontinuetill end-2027asearliest,3)Nanya GMwill continuetoexpandsignificantlyonsequentialbasisduring2H26vs1H26.WesawthecallasapositivereadthroughtotheCCLindustryincludingKBLandShengyiTech.KBLsharepricehasdropped~60%fromall-timehighthismonthwhichlooksoverdoneat8-9xPEwhichiseven lowerthanhistoricalmeanlow-teenPE.ReiterateBuy. Strongnetprofitrunrateduring1H26preliminaryresultsalertamongCCL/PCBcompanies-Nanyareported1H26Enetprofittohavesurgedbyover3.5XyoytoRmb420-500mwithmid-ptguidanceimplying369%yoyor106%qoq.Fig1exhibitsthe1H26preliminaryresultsofCCL/PCBchainonChinaA-sharestocksGenerallyspeaking,thequarterlyprofitrateshouldsurgeat highestdegreeatglassfabricplays(upstream),thenCCLandlowestatPCBplays (downstream). Eric LauAc+852-2501-2726eric.h.lau@citi.com Alice Cai+852-2501-2704alice.cai@citi.com Andy Li+852-2501-2597andy.li@citi.com ImplicationofCCLASPinflationduring2H26E-NanyaseesitsASPofCCLhasalmostdoubledfromRmb160-170/sheetinend-2025toRmb300/sheetnowone-glassfabric overthe same period.SeeFig2.Mgmt expects the ASP ofits CCL willcontinuetogrow(likelyRmb360-400atyearendfrommgmt)during2H26backedby1)continueddemandgrowthofnon-Alapplicationslikeauto,smartphoneetcthoughthegrowthismodest,2)anotableCCLsupplyreductiononnon-Alas themajor CCLplayers likeEMC,ShengyiTech have been shifting from non-AlintoAlapplications. Nanyaexpectingthesustainabletightsupplyofe-glassfabrictill end-2027asearliest-We thought the tight supply of e-glass fabric would be easing from mid-2027forincreasinglooms(weavingmachinefromyarnintofabric).ButNanyamgmtshowsamoreaggressiveviewofexpectingthetightsupplytolastatleastend-2027forstrongdemandoutlookonAl-CCLapplications.Nanyagenerates7O%ofAl-CCLsalesonM6-M8gradewithlittlevolforM9-10.ThebalanceisM5orbelow.MgmtestimateAl-fabricaccountingfor~20%oftotalcapacity3.6-3.7msheetsatthisstage.Nanyawilladd2m sheetswithcommencement in2027andbringuptown6msheets in 2028.Majority of which is set for Al-CCL 1Qto4Q26.We seethisalsoappliestootherCCLplayerslikeShengyiTechandKBL.Theyhavesetinternal guidancenottotakeorders ifGMbelow25%in3Q,20%belowin2Qand10%belowin1Q. model.Thestrongerprofit runrateofKBLthanpureCCLplayerslikeShengyiTech,Nanya is reasonableforstrongerprofitphenomenalgrowthoffabricASPvsotherpureCCLplayers. KingboardLaminatesHoldings Ourtarget price forKBL shares of HK$130 isbasedona~28-29xP/Efor2027E,at3SDovermean, whichis even higherthan its historical cycle peak between +1SD and +2SD, to reflect the growing % of its Al-fabric new business from 2H26E whichshould trigger re-rating along with further earnings upgrade possibility on e-glass fabric given higher run rate of price inflationitscustomerbaseforAl-fabricundertheNVDAand ASiC ecosystemthis year.Wethink a PEmethodologyappropriately0.6x)backedbystrongthree-yearearningsCAGRof99% (was92%)thru2028E.Wethinkthisappearsundemandingcomparedwithregional CCLcomps. Upside/downside risksthatcouldcausethe stockto exceed/underperformourtargetprice include:1)faster/slower-than- expecteddemandonupstreammaterials suchasglassfabricandcopperfoilonAl-relatedproducts;2)Chinamacrogrowthrecovery/weaknessinend-demandofelectronicgoods. ofthegraphicsinthisdocument,pleasecallUSA1-888-500-5008(TTY:711),fromoutsidetheUS +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationandcontentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated by“Ac"intheauthorblockor(i)listedinboldalongsidecontent whichisattributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleACanalystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand(b)viewsexpressedsolelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystidentifiedinthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.anditsaffiliates;and(2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES securities of Kingboard Laminates HoldingsCitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.orits affiliateshasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbanking servicesprovidedwithinthe past12monthsfromKingboardLaminatesHoldings services fromKingboard Laminates Holdings inthepas