德州仪器Q226复盘：世界还不够？

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 290.00 USD(250.00OLD) Eva Zhang+1 212 845 7839yiwei.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Texas Instruments (TXN): Q226 recap - The world is not enough? Texas Instruments' Q2 results were strong ($5,463M/$2.14/61.4% vs Street at $5,234M/$1.93/59.5%, including a 5 cent benefit not in guidance) with continued industrial recoveryand datacenter growth, and more positive auto performance. Industrial grew ~30% YoY and~10% QoQ; Data center doubled Y/Y and rose~20% QoQ, and Automotive grew mid-teens% YoY and climbed HSD% QoQ. Personal electronics were flat YoY and were up HSD% QoQ,while communications equipment continued to grow YoY and QoQ. Gross margins at 61.4%were ~185bps above expectations on better revenues and loadings. Close Date22 Jul 2026TXN Close Price (USD)294.19Price Target (USD)290.00Upside/(Downside)(1)%52-Week Range334.03/152.73SPX7,498.96FYEDecDiv Yield1.9%Market Cap (USD) (M)267,740EV (USD) (M)274,791 Q3 guidance was well above consensus ($5.90B/$2.40/~62% vs Street $5.61B/$2.15/60.4%), seasonal to perhaps a touch above with similar drivers (industrial, datacenter,automotive etc, though with possibly weaker PE vs normal patterns). Capex was reiterated atin the $2-$3B range for the year, probably closer to the high end (vs ~$4.6B in 2025). This was another solid print from the company as industrial strength persists, datacenteraccelerates, and automotive grows more positive, and results were pretty clean; the onlyissue is that a strong beat was likely already expected given those dynamics are fairly wellknown at this point. From here the questions will probably center around how much longerthe industrial cycle can continue (we note this was the company’s strongest Q2 QoQ growthsince 2009), how long it will take datacenter (currently low double digit % of sales?) tobecome truly meaningful, what happens to PE into year-end, and whether or not pricingactions can help drive gross margins higher; given we are moving into the 2H we would (asalways) also watch seasonality into Q4 (which still appears to be mis-modeled by consensus,something to watch into October). Overall though we have few nitpicks to go after here and can see good things happening,though given valuation we prefer to look elsewhere in our space for now. Raising estimates and rolling valuation horizon forward to avg FY27/28, PT raised from$250 to $290 (30x, unchanged, on avg FY27/28 EPS). We rate TXN MP. Investment Implications TXN (MP, $290):TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment. DETAILS For our updated TXN model please click here:TXN model. Texas Instruments' Q2 results were strong ($5,463M/$2.14/61.4% vs Street at $5,234M/$1.93/59.5%, includinga 5 cent benefit not in guidance) with continued industrial recovery and datacenter growth, and more positiveauto performance. Industrial grew ~30% YoY and ~10% QoQ; Data center doubled Y/Y and rose~20% QoQ, andAutomotive grew mid-teens% YoY and climbed HSD% QoQ. Personal electronics were flat YoY and were up HSD% QoQ, while communications equipment continued to grow YoY and QoQ. Gross margins at 61.4% were ~185bpsabove expectations on better revenues and loadings. •Texas Instruments' results beat consensus on revenues and on EPS ($5,463M/$2.14 vs Street $5,234M/$1.93 andguidance $5,200M/$1.91) (Exhibit 1). •Analog, Embedded and Other were all above expectations (Exhibit 2).•Total revenue was up ~13% sequentially, better than typical seasonality (Exhibit 3) and grew ~23% YoY.•Analog sales of $4,365M were up ~11% QoQ and up ~26% YoY (Exhibit 5). Operating margins for the segment were45.6%, up ~390bps QoQ.•Embedded Processing sales of $788M were up ~9% QoQ and up ~16% YoY (Exhibit 5). Segment operating margins camein at 21.3%, up ~440bps QoQ.•Other Revenues of $310M grew ~74% QoQ and were down ~2% YoY (Exhibit 5). Operating margins were 48.4% for thequarter.•On a sequential basis, Datacenter revenue was up ~20%, Industrial was up ~10%, Auto was up HSD %, Personal Electronicswas up HSD%, and Comms equipment grew as well. On a YoY basis, Datacenter grew the fastest (doubled), followed byIndustrial (>30%), Auto (mid-teens %), Comms equipment (positive growth), and PE (~flat) (Exhibit 6).•Gross margins were 61.4% vs 58.0% last quarter (Exhibit 7), and were ~185bps above street expectations of 59.5%(Exhibit 8) due to higher revenue and loadings.•Opex for the quarter came in at $1,025M (excluding acquisition expenses of $17M), higher than our estimate ($1,010M) andconsensus ($1,006M). Q3 guidance was well above consensus on revenues and EPS, with margins also above($5.90B/$2.40/~62%vs Street $5.61B/$2.15/60.4%), seasonal to perhaps a touch above with similar drivers (industrial, datacenter,automotive etc, though with possibly weaker PE vs normal patterns). Capex was reit