阿里巴巴Qwen3.8Max与Moonshot AI Kimi K3发布的见解及启示

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N)ThoughtsonQwen3.8MaxPreviewand ImplicationsfromKimiK3 Release andthereleaseofMoonshotAl's2.8T-parameterKimiK3modelunderscoreanacceleratingAlraceinChina,wherecompaniescontinuouslyleapfrog oneanother.Webelievetherapid iterationcouldfostera"model-agnostic"environment,withenterprisesadoptingmulti-modelstrategiestoselectthebestmodeland bestpriceforeachtask.Thistrend reducesthedefensibilityofanysinglemodel,shiftingthecompetitivefocustotheplatformsandinfrastructurethatcanseamlesslyhostandmanagethem.Webelievelong-termsuccesswill requireimmenseresources,toptalent,andaloyalpayingcustomerbase.Consequently,companieswithfull-stackcapabilities,fromchipsandcloudinfrastructuretomodelsandapplications,likeAlibaba,couldbebetterpositionedtolead,inourview.WebelievethemarketmayalsobeoverlookingthevalueofTencent'sreal-worldAlapplications,likeWorkBuddy,whichhasdemonstrateddecenttractionrecently. Alicia Yap, CFAAC+852-2501-2773alicia.yap@citi.com What's new?-As reported byvariousnewsreports,includingBloomberg(July19,2026),Alibabaannouncedon its officialXaccountthatithaslaunchedapreviewversionofitsflagshipQwen3.8MaxmodelonJuly19,anddescribeditascomparabletoleadingfrontierAlmodels.DeveloperscanaccessQwen3.8MaxthroughAlibaba'scodingplatforms,includingQoderorQoderWork.AlibabaalsonotedonthepostthatQwen3.8Maxhas2.4trnparametersandthatitwillmakethemodelopen-weightsoon.AccordingtoMLQ.ai(July19,2026),Qwen3.8isbuilton a sparseMixture-of-Experts architectureandrepresentstheteam'sfirstmultimodalmodelexceeding onetrillionparameters.Itcanprocesstext,images,videos,anddocuments KimiK3release-LastweekonJuly16,MoonshotAlreleaseditslatestmodel,KimiK3,whichisa2.8T-parametermodelbuiltonitsKimiDeltaAttentionandAttentionResiduals,withnativevisioncapabilitiesanda1-million-tokencontextwindowdesignedforlong-horizon coding,knowledgework and reasoning.ThefullweightmodelwillbereleasedonJuly27.SinceKimiK3isthefirstopenmodeltoreach2.8TtheKimiK3releasehasshocked industryprofessionalsgloballyand mighthaveledtotheweaknessofsome Al-related stocks. OurthoughtsonthepotentialimplicationsofKimi3releasefortheChinaAllandscape-WebelievethereleaseofKimi K3highlightsasignificanttrendin believe thelong-term success ofthe industrywill dependon strong capital fundingto supportmodeltraining and innovation,theabilityto attractandretaintop-tierAltalents,andanestablished andloyalcustomerbasethat is essentialtogenerating"model-agnostic"approachamong enterprisesandprofessionals.Ratherthancommittingtoa singleAlprovider,enterprisesandusers increasingly adopt a multi-modelstrategy,selectingthebest-performing modelforeachspecifictask.Thistrenddiminishesthedefensibilityofanysinglemodelandshiftsthecompetitivefocustowardtheplatformsandinfrastructurethatcanseamlesslyintegrateandmanagethem,inourview.Hence,webelievecompaniespossessingfull-stackcapabilities,spanningfromchipsto cloud infrastructure,modelsandapplicationsaretobebetterpositionedtoleadand sustaintheiradvantage.We continueto believe the marketmaybeunderappreciatingthefull-stack capabilities of Alibaba and BaiduSimilarly,Tencent'srecenttraction with WorkBuddyand theupcomingagentic Al in WeChat,whichdemonstratethevalueofAlinreal-lifeapplications,couldbeoverlookedbythemarket. Alibaba Group Holding OurtargetpriceforAlibabaN-shares ofUSs192isbasedon10xP/EonFY2027EEcommercegroupnetprofit,7.0xP/Son FY2027ECloud IntelligenceGroup revenue,1.2xP/SonAIDC Grouprevenue,and0.2xP/Sonall otherbusinesses.Ourtargetmultiplesarebenchmarkedagainstcomps.Wealsoassigna3o%discounttonetcashposition,in-linewithourSoTPforotherinternetpeers.OurSOTPfairvaluecomestoUS$192pershare. strategy;ili)investmentspendandmarginspressurebecomeworsethanexpected;ili)slowdownofusertrafficandonlineGMVand losingappealtobrands&merchants;iv)integration risksfornewlyacquired entities;v)slowdown ofthe Chineseandglobal economies andoverhang ofUS-China orothertradedisputes;andvi)regulatoryrisksonpoorproductqualityandintegrityofmerchants. Alibaba(9988.HK; HK$112.6; 1; 17 Jul 26; 16:10) ValuationOurtarget priceforAlibaba H-shares ofHKs191isbasedon10xP/EonFY2027EEcommerceGroupnet profit,7.OxP/Son FY2027ECloudIntelligenceGrouprevenue,1.2xP/SonAIDCGrouprevenue,andO.2xP/Sonallotherbusinesses.Ourtargetmultiplesarebenchmarkedagainstcomps.Wealsoassigna30%discounttonetcashposition, in-linewithourSoTPforotherinternetpeers.OurSOTPfairvaluecomestoHK$191perH-share RisksKeydownsiderisksthatcouldpreventthesharesfromreachingourtargetpriceinclude:(i)failureinexecuting itsnewretail strategy;ii) investment spendandmargins pressurebecome worsethanexpected; li)slowdown ofusertrafficandonlineGMVandlosingappealtobrands&merchants; iv)integrationrisksfornewlyacquiredentities;v)slowdownoftheChineseandglobal economies and overhang of US-China or othertrade disputes; and vi) regulatory risks on poor product quality andintegrityofmerchants US +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 analystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreport