深入解析800VDC变革

Four-Phase 800VDC Transition, Power Rack Economics, SST, Equipment Content/MWBuild, Supplier Implications 800VDC 转型四个阶段、功率机架经济学、固态变压器（SST）、设备含量/每兆瓦建设成本、供应商影响 NICOLAS BONTIGUI,JEREMIE ELIAHOU ONTIVEROS,KONRAD WANG,AND3OTHERS NICOLAS BONTIGUI, JEREMIE ELIAHOU ONTIVEROS, KONRAD WANG, 以及其他 3 位作者 MAY 26, 20262026 年 5 月 26 日·PAID·付费内容 We’d like to thankDG Matrix,Novos Power, andAran Industriesfor their contributions andinsights during the preparation of this deep dive. 我们衷⼼感谢DG Matrix、Novos Power和Aran Industries在本深度报告准备过程中所提供的贡献与⻅解。 Introduction: Welcome to the Power ChainRoller Coaster 引言：欢迎来到动力链过山车 Across every major industry conference in the first half of 2026, our research team keptwalking past the same scene: a booth ten or fifteen people deep, leaning in to catchevery word from another datacenter equipment messiah preaching the gospel of800VDC. The pitch was the same every time. 800VDC is about to change the electricalinfrastructure of the datacenter. 在2026年上半年的每⼀场重⼤⾏业会议上，我们的研究团队总会路过同样的场景：⼀个展位前挤满了⼗到⼗五个⼈，他们⾝体前倾，全神贯注地聆听着⼜⼀位数据中⼼设备“先知”宣讲800VDC的福⾳。每⼀次的推介内容都如出⼀辙：800VDC即将彻底改变数据中⼼的电⼒基础设施。 Every architectural shift looked excessive at first. Operators spent decades keepingwater and leaks out of the data hall, then GPU thermal density made running coolantright up against the precious silicon unavoidable. Each shift happened anyway,because physics and the economics of compute do not negotiate. 800VDC is next, andthe logic is the same. Tokens per watt are what matters. 每⼀次架构变⾰起初看起来都显得激进。运营商花费了数⼗年时间防⽌⽔和泄漏进⼊数据⼤厅，随后GPU的热密度使得将冷却液直接引向珍贵的硅⽚变得不可避免。⽆论如何，每⼀次变⾰终究都会发⽣，因为物理规律和计算经济学是不容商量的。800VDC就是下⼀个趋势，其逻辑如出⼀辙：每⽡代币（Tokens per watt）才是核⼼所在。 Source: Nvidia, InferenceX 来源：Nvidia, InferenceX As GPU clusters become increasingly dense, with Kyber Ultra approaching 660kW perrack, the physics start to break down. Resistive losses scale with current squared, andat these power levels copper mass and thermal envelope exceed what fits inside a rack.Moving to 800VDC eliminates conversion stages, reduces resistive losses, and cutsfacility-level power consumption by ~5%. At 1GW of IT load, that is over 50MW ofcontinuous savings, tens of millions in annual electricity costs, or new computecapacity unlocked. For all the inference-king proponents out there, 800VDC is atransition forced by physics and motivated by system economics. 随着GPU集群的密度不断增加，例如Kyber Ultra已接近每机架660kW，物理极限开始显现。电阻损耗随电流的平⽅成⽐例增⻓，在如此⾼的功率⽔平下，铜缆质量和散热范围已经超出了机架的承载能⼒。转向800VDC架构可以消除多级转换，降低电阻损耗，并将设施层⾯的功耗降低约5%。在1GW的IT负载下，这意味着超过50MW的持续节能，每年可节省数千万美元的电费，或者释放出全新的计算容量。对于所有“推理为王”的拥趸来说，800VDC是⼀场由物理定律驱动、受系统经济效益促成的必然转型。 We have been tracking this transition through ourInferenceXandIndustrials Models,which provide a bottom-up view of where efficiency gains materialize and whichequipment categories absorb the disruption. TheIndustrials Modelincludes adedicated 800VDC module, building up from individual accelerator architectures to atop-down view of 800VDC penetration, MW adoption, and market sizing forequipment like the power sidecar and Solid-State Transformers (SSTs). 我们⼀直通过InferenceX和⼯业模型（Industrials Models）跟踪这⼀转型，这些模型⾃下⽽上地展⽰了效率提升的具体环节，以及哪些设备类别正在消化这种颠覆性影响。⼯业模型包含⼀个专⻔的800VDC模块，从单个加速器架构出发，逐步构建出800VDC渗透率、兆⽡（MW）采⽤量，以及电源侧柜（power sidecar）和固态变压器（SST）等设备的市场规模等⾃上⽽下的全景视图。 来源：SemiAnalysis⼯业模型 This deep dive traces the transition phase by phase: from the sidecar retrofit, throughfaciliy-level DC distribution, to the SST endgame. For each phase, we analyze the BoMand map the changes in equipment content/MW, what survives, what gets redesigned,and what gets eliminated. 本次深度探讨将分阶段追溯这⼀转型过程：从侧柜改造，到设施级直流配电，再到固态变压器（SST）的终局。针对每个阶段，我们都会分析物料清单（BoM），并绘制设备内容/每兆⽡的变化图谱，明确哪些设备将继续存在、哪些需要重新设计，以及哪些将被淘汰。 The 800VDC revolution is set to dramatically change the revenue trajectory of certainsuppliers. We’ve been tracking winners and losers for over a year inIndustrials Model,which estimates the BoM for 20+ different datacenter designs broken down into 70+equipment types and lays out the impact for 500+ suppliers. It is built on our industry-leadingDatacenter Modelwhich forecasts quarter-by-quarter MWs for 6000+datacenters and anticipates design changes. 800VDC⾰命注定将戏剧性地改变某些供应商的营收轨迹。⼀年多来，我们⼀直在⼯业模型中跟踪其中的赢家和输家。该模型估算了20多种不同数据中⼼设计的物料清单（细分为70多种设备类型），并阐述了对500多家供应商的影响。该模型建⽴在我们⾏业领先的数据中⼼模型之上，后者预测了6000多个数据中⼼逐季度的兆⽡数，并预判了设计变更。 This has enabled us to successfully call out both winners, and companies inaccuratelypictured as losers by the market, before anyone else. If you are wondering whetherUPS systems have a place in upcoming 800VDC distribution, what is the marketopportunity for SSTs, or which suppliers are leading this transition, stick with us. 这使我们能够先于他⼈成功识别出真正的赢家，以及被市场误判为输家的公司。如果你想知道UPS系统在即将到来的800VDC配电中是否占有⼀席之地，SST（固态变压器）的市场机会如何，或者哪些供应商正在引领这⼀转型，请继续关注我们。 Source: SemiAnalysis Industrials Model 来源：SemiAnalysis⼯业模型 Part 1 of this 800VDC Revolution series covers datacenter layout and equipment implications.Part 2 will focus on power electronics and the semiconductor revolution underneath it. 《800VDC⾰命》系列的第⼀部分涵盖了数据中⼼布局和