新兴市场外汇定位信号转为更具防御性

EM FX positioning signals turn moredefensive Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist+44-20-75475907 Our latest FX positioning signals continue to point to a broadly cautious stancetoward non-USD currencies. Across regions, positioning remains short in both G10and Asia, although the G10 signal has eased marginally over the past two weekswhile the Asia short signal has extended considerably. Meanwhile, LatAm andCEEMEA have shifted into mildly short territory against the USD. Looking ahead,our analysis shows that August has typically been a more challenging month forhigher-beta, commodity and carry currencies, with ZAR, MXN, AUD and NZDtending to underperform against both USD and JPY, although the effect hasgenerally been more pronounced against the JPY. Bryant XuStrategist+65-6423 5558 InG10, short-positioning signals remained broadly stable. The short positioningsignal in both EUR and GBP remained unchanged, while the short positioning signalin JPY eased slightly and remained at moderate levels in CHF. For JPY, recent GPIFcommunications have been constructive and could prove increasingly relevant fordomesticasset allocation trends.By contrast,we continue to favour CHFunderperformance. Among the commodity currencies, the short positioning signalin NZD extended notably, whereas the short positioning signal in CAD was paredsignificantly. The short positioning signal in AUD remained broadly unchanged.Within the Scandinavian currencies, the short positioning signal in NOK wasreduced, while the short positioning signal in SEK increased marginally. In Asia,positioning signals reflected a deeper bearish bias across regionalcurrencies. TWD shorts were extended as currency dropped to 14 month low amidsustained equity outflows, reinforcing its status as the most bearish positioningsignal across EM. Short positioning signals in IDR, SGD and THB were alsoextended against a backdrop of renewed USD strength. CNH short positioningremainedlargely unchanged,while INR positioning remained broadly flat.Elsewhere, PHP positioning signal shifted from a small long to short. In contrast,positioning signals indicate that KRW remained the only long in the region,although long positioning was trimmed at the margin. More broadly, the market hasshifted from a sizeable short KRW position to a net long over recent weeks, drivenby expectations of potential KRW inflows linked to SK Hynix's reported US listingplans and concerns that higher FX hedge ratios among Korean shipbuilders couldlead to increased corporate USD selling. In CEEMEA,positioning signals reflected a broad unwind of the constructivepositioning observed two weeks ago.Positioning signals indicate PLN, CZK andTRY shifted from long to short while HUF positioning turned moderately bearish 20 July 2026DB EPIC+ from near flat levels. Recent NBH communication suggests policymakers remaincomfortable continuing the easing cycle despite higher oil prices and a weaker HUF.Positioning signals indicate that ILS shorts largely remained unchanged, while RUBlongs were pared modestly. Meanwhile, ZAR long positioning eased notably,leaving only a small long bias.In LatAm,positioning signals reflected a moderationin bullish sentiment across the region. CLP and COP shorts were extended, whilePEN positioning shifted from a small long to a short MXN longs were reducedsignificantly, while bullish positioning in BRL remained largely unchanged. Wecontinue to maintain positive bias on BRL in the short-term. Positioning Charts 20 July 2026DB EPIC+ 20 July 2026DB EPIC+ 20 July 2026DB EPIC+ 20 July 2026DB EPIC+ DB EPIC+ : CEEMEA 20 July 2026DB EPIC+ 20 July 2026DB EPIC+ DB EPIC Plus - LatAm Technical Appendix Figure 36: Sub-indicators Matrix Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or viewin this report. Rohini Grover, Bryant Xu. 20 July 2026DB EPIC+ Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the i