诺和诺德参与BRIDGE第一周：目前尚无太多看点

Company Update EuropeDenmark PharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticals Takes on BRIDGE week1: not much tosee here … so far Valuation & Risks Emmanuel Papadakis, Ph.D., CFAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-18522 Summary takes Whilst neither guidance nor consensus estimates may reflect much for it, animplicit component of the last month or so’s rally for Novo in our view has beenexpectation for a potential “Medicare bump” in prescriptionson the Bridgeprogramme that came into effect on 1st July. As the first full week of July data is outtoday (to the 10th), we briefly comment: the summary being that no such bump isyet evident, nor are we particularly optimistic it will transpire in the coming weeks.However, we also take the opportunity to comment on a snap third party poll on theprogram published last week who’s evidence suggests we should perhaps be alittle more constructive (at least once prior authorisation hurdles are cleared…).Nonetheless, as commented in our Q2 preview (EU Pharma: Q2’26 preview: large cap EU pharma (+ a few smids) (07/07/26)), we think that may leave the stocksomewhat vulnerable post a widely anticipated Q2 beat/raise and if the ZEUSheadline delivers as we expect (NOVO: ZEUS rarely intervenes to save strickenmortals; this looks an unlikely exception (18/06/26)):upside from these levelsclearly requires confidence on both H2 and 2027 growth, which look likely to becontentious assumptions based on recent trends. Niall AlexanderResearch Analyst+44-20-754-12185 Henrietta BoegResearch Associate+44-20-754-10119 Kate FarrellyResearch Associate Shashindra SeresinheResearch Associate Supun UkwattaResearch Associate Medicare Bridge context and implicationsWe remind the MFN deals securing Medicare access for Novo were nintended to be implemented via a CMS BALANCE program, however thatfailed to get off the ground when an insufficient quota of Medicare-participant insurers committed to participate,citing reservations withdetails of the reimbursement program that appeared to clearly imply theywere concerned about being left out of pocket or insufficiently financiallymotivated to participate. CMS then announced the demonstration BRIDGEprogram, administered by sole provider Humana, would fill the gap (detailshere) for eligible partD enrollees with a $50 copay i.e. nondiabetics withBMI>35 or >27 with comorbidities. However, all claims through BRIDGEneed prior authorisation and we assume there will also be a degree ofsubsequent utilisation management though details aren’t entirely clear. nWhilst as we’ve covered before there has been some debate on thequantum of additional volume this would open up given the exclusionsaround dual eligibles and other exclusion criteria, this should open up acomfortably DD million number of additional patients at a $250 prescriptionprice point, implying an additional TAM in the tens of $bns relative to FY26ESC/oral Wegovy sales of $12.5bn/$2.0bn respectively (in the mostly 17 July 2026PharmaceuticalsNovo Nordisk commercial/cash channels respectively). Clearly, as a source of potentialupside to consensus numbers already being nudged up by strong H1’26oral launch that has made for an attractive setup nHowever, should access prove overly onerous, as it clearly has in thecommercial channel, there is a risk that Novo fails to consummate thevolume opportunityhere. Coupled with a clear apparent slowdown in oralgrowth, that could potentially prove a challenging combination. Note wewill publish our weekly Novo tracker early next week with NBRX data asusual, but provide this weeks TRX/NRX cut released today inside. Brief snap poll takesThe poll covered 30 US endocrinologists and suggests that both groups nexpect to see a meaningful increase in GLP-1 prescribingfor Medicarepatients, though with a median response of “moderately” (rather thansubstantially or slightly, etc). nAlmost half of both groups did however cite PA requirements as likely tobe the biggest practical barrier to adoption however.Interestingly therewere also quite different responses on potential concerns, with endoscitinglean muscle mass loss risk,whilst PCPs cited polypharmacymanagement challenges (i.e. too many medicines…). 17 July 2026PharmaceuticalsNovo Nordisk Wegovy & Oral Wegovy Valuation We value NOVO's Wegovy at an NPV of DKK 51/sh in our group NPV DKK 503/sh;based on peak sales of DKK 96bn in 2028E; DB is -3% vs consensus of DKK 80bn in2030E. Please note stock PTs are based on 12-month P/E and hence typically differ from NPV We value NOVO's Oral Wegovy at an NPV of DKK 36/sh in our group NPV DKK 503/sh; based on peak sales of DKK 56bn in 2032E; DB is +18% vs consensus of DKK 40bnin 2030E. Please note stock PTs are based on 12-month P/E and hence typically differ from NPV 17 July 2026PharmaceuticalsNovo Nordisk GLP-1 weekly Rx data GLP-1 Pricing Figure 5: GLP-1 pricing across channels 17 July 2026PharmaceuticalsNovo Nordisk GLP-1 Medicare Third Party Poll We comment on a third-party poll publi