瑞萨电子内存接口芯片调查或可控

Renesas Electronics Corp Rating jack.in@bernsteinsg.comCarmine Milano, CFA carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.comJuho Hwang ? 6723.JP juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Manageable by Renesas,Rambus (not covered)and Montage (covered by Qingyuan Lin)on 15th July as reported. The investigation focuses on whether the three vendors coordinated pricingof memory interface products, includingDDR5registered clockdrivers (RCDs)and databuffers.The Korea probe follows a separate U.S. investigation.Earlier this year,the U.S.DOJwas investigating Renesas over suspected semiconductorprice-fixing,whileRambussubsequently disclosed receipt of a grand jury subpoena related to the investigation. have 60-70% GM, Renesas, Montage and Rambus all generate structurally high marginsof 60-70% from memory interface, mostly due to structural growth, IP, controller/platformqualification,validation cycles,scarce supply,and limitedalternatives. ofRenesas'revenue in2025,andweestimatethistoincreaseto~7-8%in2026E.Assuminga~65% GM and similar opexratio to the group, we estimate the business contributes~8% /~9.5%ofRenesas'OPin2025/26E,respectively. Limited impactevenundera negativescenario.Wecan'tsay ifthe investigation wouldor would not leadto any action,but any legal action would find it hard to change themarketstructure and hence structural profitability.But if indeed pricing get reset lower, leading tosome margin normalization,the impact would stillbe limited. Assuming the price of Renesas'memory interfacebusiness drops by10ppts to55%, itwouldonly impact0.8%of corporaterevenue and 1.8% of OP (Exhibit 1). ReiterateOutperform.Webelievetheprobing has limited impactandremainconstructiveonpower semisgiventheriseof Alpowerdemand(Infineon/Renesas:CPUrenaissanceemerges as a second enginefor power semi demand,set to outstrip supply).We hencereiterateourOutperformratingonRenesas. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE References to"Bernstein" or the“Firm"in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1Africa Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Societe Génerale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates”relateto both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. Weseta￥6,300targetpriceusingaP/Emultipleof20xagainstourforwardQ5-Q8EPSestimateof?316. RISKS Renesas Electronics Corp There are a number of downside risks to our Renesas target price:(1)Prolonged delay in the Analog marketrecovery (2) Weaker-downside risk to overall Japan market. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand The Bernstein brand rates stocksbased on forecasts of relativeperformancefor thenext 12months versus the S&P500 forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturnIndexEUR(EDME)forstockslistedontheEuropeanexchangesandemergingmarketsexchangesoutsideoftheAsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX)for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: :Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp .Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp :Underperform:Stockwill trailtheperformance of themarket indexbymorethan15pp Coverage Suspended:Coverage ofacompanyundertheBernsteinresearchbrandhasbeensuspended.Ratingsandpricetargets Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelyon events anddevelopments. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage. Bernstein brand stock ratings are based on a 12-month time horizon. The Autonomous brand rates common stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 6oo Financials Price Return Index (E6oOBK) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR(EDMFl)indexfordevelopedEuropeanbanksandPayments,theBloombergEurope6OOInsurancePriceReturnIndex(E6OOlN)forEuropeaninsurers,theS&P5OOandS&PFinancialsforUSbanksandPaymentscoverage,S5LiFEforUSInsurance,theS&PInsurance Select Industry (SPSINS)for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials LargeMid and Small Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF)for emerging market banks and insurers and Payments. Ratings are stated relativeto the sector (not the market). targets are suspended temporarily,are no longer current, and shouldtherefore not be relied upon. Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the perfo