中国宏观跟踪报告：扩大消费，以服务为引领

China but the priority is on services consumption expansion Senior Economist, GreaterChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+85229966975Taylor Wang +Greentransitiontoaccelerateviafasternon-fossilfueltargetsand grid upgrades The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtavlor.t.l.wango@hsbc.com.hk+85222888650Jing Liu +Fiscal policy likely a key focus forthe July Politburo meetingmonetary policy to remain supportive through targeted measures Chief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+85239410063Heidi Li Blueprintfor expanding consumption:servicestodrive growthOn13July,PremierLiQiangchairedasymposiumwitheconomistsand entrepreneurs, signalling policy priorities for the second half of the year: 1) boostingconsumption, with a particular focus on services; 2) driving investment through majorinfrastructure network projects and improved livelihoods; and 3) supporting AssociateGuangzhou The State Council also released the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for expandingconsumption, with the goal to significantly increase household consumption,whiletargeting retail sales to reach around RMB60trn by 2030 (State Council, 13 July),implying a CAGR of 3.7% in nominal terms. However, retail sales grew 1.4% y-o-y inJanuary-May (chart 1), highlighting short-term cyclical pressures. With trade-insupport fading,and weakness in the property and labour market, householdconsumption remains cautious (China's cautious consumer, 22 May). Theplan gives prominent emphasis to expand services consumption, highlighting theneed to raise the share of services spending (chat 2-3).Key priority areas includeelderly care, childcare, culture and tourism, health, and sports. Previous guidance onadvancingthe services sector set agoal of increasingthetotal size of servicesconsumption to RMB100trn by 2030 (CAGR of 4.6%).Together with further openingof the services sector, high-quality services supply could help to drive its growth. While the property market has improved in tier-1 cities, broader improvement has yetto occur (chart 12-16).A weak property market not only suppresses consumption inthe property value chain but also weighs on household willingness to spend viawealtheffects.Theplanemphasisesoptimisingthesupplyofaffordablehousingandadvancing urban renewal, which could help to stabilise the sector.In our view, newurbanisationcouldadd0.8-1.3pptofconsumptionspendingtoannual GDPby2030(see China's Urbanisation 2.0, 29 May). Stabilising employment and income are also key priorities. Building on the 15th FYPfor implementing the employment-first strategy (China Macro Tracker, 10 June), theconsumption plan further highlights multiple channels to raise incomes, includingincome (supportedbya healthierproperty marketand a steady capital market),toenhance the household income outlook and strengthen consumer confidence Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Researchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com The 15th FYP, released in March, set the headline goal of lifting non-fossil energy to 25% of per year.Recent policy guidance suggests the momentum will likelyaccelerate early in the 15thFYP period.On 10 July, the National Energy Administration released its 2026-28 Action Plan onto lift the share of non-fossil energy consumption by c1ppt each year to 2028 (Xinhua, 10 July) 15th FYP carbon-peaking action plan on 9 July and set out more granular targets. For one, non-fossil fuel capacity should continue to expand in the next five years, based on explicit installed-capacity objectives for wind, solar,nuclear,and hydropower by 2030 (chart 6).However,following the strong build-out of recent years, growth is expected to moderate for major sources.For instance, combined wind and solar installed capacity increased by360GW in 2024 and440GW in 2025, while the plan now targets around 200GW of annual additions during the 15thFYP period. Instead, policy priorities are shifting towards encouraging technologicalbreakthroughs, curbing involutionary competition and phasing out outdated capacity. In addition, as noted by HSBC's Chief Asia Economist Fred Neumann, et al., China's seeminglylow share of renewables in the energy consumption mix-despite substantial capacityadditionsin recent years - partly reflects capacity that is not yet fully connected to the grid; once it is, theshare should materially increase (see Asia Chart of the Week: Beyond Hormuz, 10 July).Atend-2025, non-fossil fuel energy (including green, nuclear, and hydro power)accounted forthe existing power system's capabilityto integrate,allocate,and manage renewable energystorage is a step in the right direction. more than half of China's power generation, C