数据中心与新一代云计算：解读数据中心托管的回报

Data Centers & Neoclouds: contextualizing returns on colocation broadening the apertureto include emerging Alinfrastructurecompanies andbitcoinminers,i.e. WULF, CIFR, CORZ, CLSK and RIOT.As we noted in our prior piece,data center REITsoftenscreenpoorlyontraditionalmetrics suchas ROiCorearnings-basedmultiples,largelydue totheircapitalintensity,long development timelines,andaccountingtreatments.Wetakeastabilizedreturnsapproachandcomparetraditional A/colocation providerswiththeirmore nascent peers in emerging Alinfrastructure to arriveat industry-wide metrics. +19173448622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com +91226 842 1416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com +19173448545nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.con supports structurally higher stabilized returns.We use two approaches to observestabilized returns-ROA (total stabilized NOI divided by gross PP&E) and yield on cost(estimated stabilized net income divided by average net PP&E),and observe a consistentreturn premiumat EQIX.Webelieve that differences in pricing model and customer mixare a primarydriver of this divergence,as EQiX is moreheavily weighted towards retailcolocation,characterizedbysmallerdeployments,higherunitpricing,andstructurallyhigher margins, while DLR has greater exposure to wholesale colocation,which involveslarger-scale deployments at lower unit margins. Additionally, differences in depreciationpolicies as well as how eachcompany defines andclassifies stabilized assets, bothcontribute to the divergence in return profile. +912268421408mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.com +912268421445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.com +91226 842 1457harsh.misra@bernsteinsg.com Within emerging Al infra, wenote that certain capex funding structures yieldbetter cash-on-cashreturns.Forinstance,based onannounced contract details,weobserve a 5-yr average ROA of 75% and yield on cost of 79%for CORZ,due to their lowerwith its tenant (CRwV), resulting in an effective unit capex of $1.5Mn per IT MW (insanelylow). Another example is RIOT, who is retrofitting existing Bitcoin facilities at an incrementalcapex of $3.5Mn per IT MW,yielding a 5-yr average ROA of 23% and yield on cost of 29%on parwithEQIX levels. However,webelievethat such capex-advantageddealsare limitedand donotnecessarilyreflect the overall economics of emerging Alinfra players over the longterm; WULF (5-yr avg ROA of 5%, 5-yr avg yield on cost of 19%) and CIFR (5-yr averageROAof 4%,5-yravg yieldon cost of 17%)maybe more representativeofoverall returnprofiles for the subsector. As with the traditional colo players, we believe that yield on costispolicies,definitionof"stabilized"assets,and capex structures,making directcomparisonsacross operatorsmore challenging. Whilewearepositiveonboth,thesetwosubsectors representdifferentapproachestodata centerdevelopment.DLR and EQIX operatemature,largely stabilizedportfoliosconsisting of hundreds of facilities in major metro markets. By comparison, the emergingAl infrastructure peers are building small numbers offacilities in rural locations,typicallyanchored by individual hyperscaler contracts.Although YTC metrics are generallyconsistent across the peer set, their long-term outlooks may diverge.WeremainOutperformontheentiresector. Our $232 price target is based on 27x our 2027E AFFO per share of $8.52.We value EQIX on a Price to AdjustedFunds FromOperations (AFFO)persharemultiple.Our $1,222price target isbased on25xour 2027EAFFOper share of$48.63. Bitcoin Miners/Emerging Al Infra:Cryptominers remain well positioned to solve time to compute'given theirplanned 3OGW7 GW ofpower capacity to hyperscalers,neoclouds and Al-chip manufacturers across 19 deals worth over $135Bn.Thecontracted7GW represents<25%of the30 GWpipeline ofcrypto miners,allowing runwayfor new contracts.Werate WULFOutperform (PT$36),CIFROutperform (PT$32),CORZ Outperform(PT$32),CLSK Outperform(PT$24),RIOTOutperform(PT$30) and MARA Market-Perform (PT $17), stabilized NOl dividedbygross PP&E-and yield on cost-definedas estimated stabilized net incomedivided by averagenetPP&E.While differences in assetdefinitions,capitalization policies,anddepreciation conventions can introducesomevariabilityin the denominator, these measures together provide a consistent directional view of underlying asset productivity.Across bothframeworks, weobserveapersistent returnpremiumat EQiX. heavilyweightedtowardretailcolocation,whichistypicallycharacterizedbysmallerdeployments,higherunitpricing,andstructurally higher margins. In contrast, Digital Realty has greater exposure to wholesale colocation, including powered shellofferings, which tend to involve larger-scale deployments at lower unit margins but benefit from longer contract durations andstabilizedassetreturnsobservedatEQiX. FY2025 revenue is derived from interconnection and managed infrastructure services, both of which exhibit more"software-partnerships, such as with providers like Megaport and Lumen,to deliver certain managed services. This approach may limit itsabilityto capture the