2026年第一季度公用事业资本支出状况——以数据中心为主导的更多多年度升级，聚焦新一代支出

State of Utility Capex 1Q26 - more multi-year upgrades led bydata centers, with a focus on new generation spend In this note, we update our State of Utility Capex series, a comprehensive monitor of shortand long-term US electric utility capex trends providing insight into the fundamentals ofelectrical equipment manufacturers and contractors.To gain recurring access to theexcel-based version of this data feed, please reach out to your salesperson. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Alasdair Leslie+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com Utility capex grew 24% Y/Y in 1Q.Though this represents a sequential decline of 4%,this came in 13ppts higher than the usual -17% seasonal pattern. Current expectationssee this momentum continuing in 2Q & 3Q, calling for 30% Y/Y growth in each quarter. It’sworth noting however, consensus’ estimates from 2Q-4Q imply below historical seasonalQ/Q growth, suggesting upside to forecasts which already point to 24% Y/Y growth.For both ‘26 and ‘27, capex expectations continue moving higher. ‘26 expectations areup 8ppts in the last 6 months (down 1ppt in the last 3 months), and ‘27 expectations arealready 2ppts higher in the last 3 months, pointing to 9% Y/Y growth. Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Om Kela+44 20 7550 2192om.kela@bernsteinsg.com Multi-year changes: 1Q multi-year raises came in better than expected. Utilities’multi-year capex budgets are up 24% Y/Y in 1Q, a record-high observed in the last 3+years. Utilities have historically raised their multi-year capex plans by 1.5% in 1Q, thoughthis quarter saw 2%+ growth. Budgets were raised by $27B in 1Q with 80% of the raisedriven by generation. In aggregate, spending is expected to remain strongest in generation(45% Y/Y) and transmission (17%). Relative to last quarter, expectations were raised forgeneration (+6ppts to 45%) and transmission (+1ppt to 17%), while distribution remainedflat. Our updatedlarge load pipeline trackernow sees 564 GW (vs. 445 GW in 4Q) ofcumulative capacity (largely data centers), representing 42% of current US generationcapacity. The biggest change was in Sempra’s Oncor who submitted127 GW (>4x current31 GW peak) in its 2026 RTP after only seeing 38 GW of large load in its pipeline in 4Q. Nicholas Witting+44 20 7762 1411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Y/Y changes: utility spend growing across categories in ‘26; generation seeingstrongest growth, distribution re-accelerating.Utilities are anticipating growing theircapex budgets most in generation (36% Y/Y in ‘26) and transmission (25% Y/Y in ‘26).Distribution is expected to grow 14%, a significant re-acceleration vs. last year’s 6%. Onthe other hand, utilities raised their forecasts for generation by 2ppts (from 34% to 36%)and transmission by 1ppt (from 24% to 25%). While the pie continues to grow, generationand transmission’s share of capex continues eating into distribution which has lost 4ppts ofshare since ‘24. Bottom line: for 2 straight quarters, generation spend has driven the vast majority of utilityspend intention increases (58% in 4Q, 80% in 1Q). This comes as no surprise as new largeloads/data centers require new sources of power. This positions PWR best vs. distribution-exposed ETN & HUBB, particularly as transmission investment follows new builds. Wepreviously quantified the high-voltage transmission TAM at $140B ($30B from 765 kV).However, PWR recently noted that for every mile of new high-voltage transmission line, itrequires an incremental ~10 miles of interconnected transmission lines, substations anddistribution upgrades, resulting in a compounding transmission investment effect from newinfrastructure, where PWR has holds a significant competitive advantage. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateETN(TP $534) andHUBB(TP $584) as Outperform, andPWR(TP $725) as Market-Perform. Our 1Q utility capextracking exercise is further supportive of the short and long-term tailwinds seen in the electrification space. We see all threenames benefiting from attractive multi-year end market growth, particularly in the data center space, where bottlenecks persist,demand for equipment and labor is high, and backlogs remain healthy. European Capital Goods:We rateSchneider(PT €310),Siemens(€300),Siemens Energy(€210), andPrysmian(€110)Outperform, and rateABB(CHF 70) andNexans(€130) Market-Perform. DETAILS OUR COVERAGE’S EXPOSURE TO UTILITY CAPEX EXHIBIT 1:Quanta is Most Exposed to Utility Electrical Capex in Our Coverage, Followed by Hubbell and Eaton Source: Company reports, BBG estimates (2026), Bernstein analysis Source: Company reports, BBG estimates (2026), Bernstein analysis Source: Company reports, BBG estimates (2026), Bernstein analysis Source: Company reports, BBG estimates (2026), Bernstein analysis QUARTERLY CAPEX: 1Q TAKEAWA