全球奢侈品：跟踪AI财富效应在2026年第二季度

Global Luxury Goods: Tracking the AI wealth effect in 2Q26E We augment our alternative dataset tracking luxury shopping mall sales in Mainland Chinawith regional industry data, ahead of 2Q26 reporting. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Luxury momentum across major Asian markets remains strong.Jewellery sales in HKand Tokyo continue to grow >20% YoY in 2Q26 while South Korean department stores seesales rise >30% in April and May. Even Mainland China has shown signs of improvement(+7% in April and May vs. flat in 1Q26). Across regions, hard luxury continues to outperformsoft. While the performance gap may have narrowed slightly, the relative strength of hardluxury remains evident and is likely to be reflected in upcoming results. Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Our data has historically provided strong correlations with reported earnings: Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Combining Chinese shopping mall data with regional retail indicators, we find the strongesthistorical correlations for LVMH Fashion & Leather Goods (R2 of 65-97%), Richemont(70-85%), Gucci (60-95%) and the Moncler brand (93%). Based on regression-impliedvalues, our analysis points to potential upside versus consensus for LVMH F&LG, Richemontand Moncler brand, while Gucci appears broadly in line with expectations: Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com LVMH F&LG: South Korea and Hong Kong strength, plus a Japanese inflection,could drive upside.Momentum in SK and HK persists, dovetailing with recent companycommentary (see: Comment: LVMH 2Q26 preview). Japan also appears poised forimprovement, aided by easier comps, a weak yen and regional AI-driven wealth creation,particularly among South Korean and Taiwanese consumers. If the strength in thesemarkets filters through and historical correlations remain valid, LVMH F&LG could deliver2Q26 OSG of up to +3%, ahead of current consensus expectations of +1.7%. Richemont: Jewellery momentum in Japan supports further outperformance. Our weighted-average model predicts a +12.1% OSG for Richemont Group in 1Q27, c.+110bps above company-collected consensus. Assuming +4% OSG for SWM, this impliesJM OSG of c.15%, c.+200bps above consensus expectations of +13%. Japan remains themost likely source of upside surprise, benefiting from a particularly favourable combinationof strong wealth creation, a growing mix of South Korean and Taiwanese tourists, continuedconsumer preference for jewellery and watches, and sequentially easier comparisons. Moncler: South Korea and Japan could offset China weakness.Our weighted proxypoints to 2Q26 APAC CFx growth of +13% (vs. consensus at +11%). The likely drivers arestrength in Korea (off a higher-than-average LDD exposure) and an inflection in Japaneseapparel growth, more than offsetting softer trends in Mainland China. Assuming consensusexpectations for EMEA and the Americas of -3% and +5%, we derive a predicted 2Q26 CFxgrowth of +5.6% for Moncler brand vs. company-collected consensus of +4.1%. Gucci: Likely to perform broadly in line with consensus.The regression suggests that2Q26 Gucci OSG for Japan will likely be c. +4%, supported by improving accessories salestrends in Tokyo and an easier comp; while the US and APCA ex. JP are likely broadly stablesequentially. This yields a weighted-average estimate of c. -6% OSG for 2Q26. This isbroadly consistent with Visible Alpha consensus, albeit slightly below for the US. We haveyet to receive company-collected consensus (see Kering: Key themes ahead of 1H26) BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The upcoming 1H26E updates could represent a turning point for the sector. Many long-only investors have been sitting onthe fence waiting and seeing for global luxury demand to improve. Major companies providing a combination of better than1Q26 growth, (slightly) positive beats, and a more than decent 1H26E profit performance could be a catalyst for investors toengage or at least put a toe in the water. The sector is 20% cheaper than the 10-year history, and the market may be looking foralternative places for funds to work as the tech boom seems to be reaching a peak. In this context we have a bias for quality, as the first port-of-call for long-only investors, as well as self-help storieswith more promising trajectories: •High Quality(see Global Luxury Goods: The Six Rings of Quality): In this group, we find continue to seeRichemontas ourtop-pick. In the near-term, jewellery momentum remains strong and could well persist for longer than the market expects.In the medium-to-long-term, improved governance and a structural advantage in an increasingly polarized consumerenvironment remain underappreciated (see Global Luxury Goods: Preparing for consumer polarisation and Part 2).BrunelloCucinelliis also favored for its quality and potential for mean reversion. It