全漏斗动能：2026年第二季度广告检查要点

Equity ResearchJuly 10, 2026 Full-Funnel Momentum: Takeaways from 2Q AdChecks Agencies saw 2Q digital advertising growth accelerate sequentially, particularlyinsocial,where RDDT continued to gain share.Agencies cited RDDT’scontextual targeting capabilities as critical for driving more low-funnel spend,suggesting new performance products could extend the runway for sharegains. Talks also continued to highlight limited risk to social budgets from LLMadvertising. We conclude RDDT’s 2Q is likely to exhibit strong momentum. (1) Digital ad spend across the industry appears healthy:Agencies mostly saw 2Q digital adgrowth accelerate sequentially and expect 2H26 growth to remain consistent with 2Q. Macro-sensitive advertisers were more constructive following some 1Q hesitancy around the ME conflict.Paid social also continues to gain share, driven by improving lower-funnel capabilities, investmentsin influencer strategies, and a growing role in product discovery. (2) Reddit is gaining share of digital budgets:Agencies continued to highlight RDDT as gainingadditional share of social budgets, driven by the platform's high-intent audience, incremental reach,and contextual targeting capabilities. Agencies frequently mentioned LinkedIn (primarily B2B), PINS,SNAP, and X as being the most common share donors. (3) Low-funnel offerings are critical to sustaining RDDT's growth:Advertiser adoption of RDDT'sofferings appears most concentrated in the mid/upper-funnel, while uptake of newer low-funnelproducts (e.g., DPAs) remains nascent. While advertisers were eager to move further down-funnel,most remain in the test-and-learn phase for RDDT's newer performance offerings. Talks suggestthat further improvements to RDDT's measurement and targeting capabilities in the bottom funnelcould help unlock incremental budget by bringing RDDT closer to parity w/ peers. (4) RDDT is increasingly appealing for SMBs:RDDT's investments in automation and ease-of-usefor advertisers ("Max," Shopify integration, etc.) are lowering barriers to entry for smaller advertisersand driving incremental adoption. Developing an automated ecosystem should expand RDDT'sadvertiser base and increase adoption among SMBs, which could help extend the growth runwayif incremental spend moderates at long-standing advertisers. (5) Search ads on RDDT could unlock more spend:Agencies expressed eagerness to test RDDT'ssearch advertising product once it becomes available later this year or early next year. Search adsare expected to enhance targeting and brand safety, while also helping RDDT tap budgets reservedfor performance/search objectives. (6) LLM advertising trials have been underwhelming:We heard three common observations madeby agencies trialing ChatGPT's ad product: (1) Cost per impression was meaningfully above industryavg; (2) ROAS was uncertain, given underdeveloped measurement capabilities, and (3) Budgetswere either incremental or taken from search, while social remained untouched. John Colantuoni * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8634 | jcolantuoni@jefferies.com Christopher Suchecki * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8402 | csuchecki@jefferies.com Breena Rettig * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 708-2839 | brettig@jefferies.com Vincent Kardos * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8569 | vkardos@jefferies.com Brent Thill * | Equity Analyst+1 (415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.com The Long View: Reddit Investment Thesis •We think RDDT has multiple avenues to drive impressions and pricing higherover time, which contributes to an impressive growth profile for Advertisingrevenue•RDDT has an attractive call option from data licensing, which provides high-margin ancillary revenue•Broad-based operating leverage should help drive meaningful marginexpansion over time, contributing to a peer-leading EBITDA CAGR Downside Scenario,$65, -67% Upside Scenario,$350, +79% Base Case,$250, +28% •DAUq growth slows more than expected,potentially from lower international uptake•Minimal advertising ARPU growth resultingfrom more modest advertiser demand or tepidROAS•Data licensing Revenue moderates due toGOOGL/OpenAI deals not being renewed afterthe initial term•Investments in product/content improvementslimit leverage on R&D and drive Gross Marginlower, hampering margin expansion•$65 PT implies~7x downside 2027E EV/EBITDA •>20%3-yr DAUq CAGR,driven by fasterinternational user growth•>30% 3-yr advertising ARPU CAGR (logged-inonly), as RDDT expands advertiser wallet sharefaster than expected and new ad formats seeimproved performance•Data licensing Revenue incrementally expands$600M driven by deal renewals at higher prices,resulting in tailwinds to consolidated margin•Larger-than-expected leverage on R&D, S&M,andG&A,while Gross Margin continues toimprove•$350 PT implies ~26x upside 2027E EV/EBITDA •Large,underpenetrated user TAM,growingcontentbase,andcontinuedproductimprovements support a ~15% 3-yr DAUq CAGR•~30% 3-yr advertising ARPU CAGR (logged-in users only) resulting from new