人工智能——花旗推理前沿：模型、机器人与内部算力释放

Artificial Intelligence Citi'sInferenceAhead-Models,Robots,&Captives Heath TerryAC+1-212-723-4624heath.terry@citi.com Afterthe release of threemodels from frontier model providers this week,average outputtoken prices continued to climbwhile GPU rental pricesroseacross Hopperand Blackwell instances (Figure1).Bothpricingtrendsreflectthe impact of accelerating enterprise adoption relative to supply,which remains constrained even as new capacity comes online,withthisexcessdemandtokeeppushingpricingthroughthestackfrompowerto semi cap equipmentto memorytocompute,with thebeneficiaries ofpersistentscarcitycontinuingtooutperform. Shelby Spencer+1-212-816-0416shelby.spencer@citi.com Ashley Kim+1-212-816-6689ashley.kim@citi.com Not if but when. Driven by local resistance, labor shortages, and equipmentconstraints rather than any shortage in demand,data center construction delayswill,weexpect,beamajorfeatureofmanagementcommentaryinthecomingweeksbelievethis will push the shape of the curve to the right without lowering it.Asincremental hyperscaler capacity becomes availableand renewals benefit fromcurrent prices,weexpectmarket focus will gradually shift from CapEx revisions torevenue acceleration,drivingareversal in recentunderperformance. Janna Withrow+1-212-723-0439janna.withrow@citi.com Smallfavors.Previouslycaptive,underutilizedcapacity being unlockedatSpacexAl and Metais being quickly reallocated to model providers running severecomputedeficitsrelativetothedemandthey'refacing.Preciousfewdevelopers haveidle computeatscale,anddatacenterconstructiondelays arelikelytokeep supplyconstrained.Hence,token and rental pricingremainelevated (Figure7;Figure8).Permittingisalsobecomingmoreofapoliticaland constructionvariable.SinceDecember,25federal andgubernatorial candidateshave run campaign adseither touting their opposition to data centers or attacking opponents forsupportingthem(Bloomberg,7/9) Thecostcurve.Thefrontierkeepsmoving.Newentrants(includingSpaceXAl'sGrok4.5and MuseSpark1.1)are compressing thefield on speedand cost,and thetop-open-to-top-closed intelligence gap is widening (Figure 2; Figure 1).Cost,insteadof raw capability,is increasingly enterprises' focus as they leverage routingincreases in Al adoption across nearly all sectors of their customers (Figure 9).Efficiency and intelligencedensity continueto befocuses within the midfield,withPrismML compressing Qwen3.6from54GB to4GB, a size small enough to runonaniPhone17Pro(TheInformation,7/9) Robots.The next driver of demand, physical Al, is gaining momentum.The 4thAnnual Citi Physical Al Summititeratedtheemergingindustry is currentlygated bydata,power,andsafety,butrepresentsalong-durationcontributorthatreinforcesthecaseforcontinual growth ratherthana simple cycle.ThefinancingplumbingforAl broadly keeps building underneath it all, with chip manufacturers continuing todurabilityandefficiencybutalsoamplifies concentrationanddependency risks. SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations. CompaniesMentioned: Apple,Inc.(AAPL.0;US$316.22;1; 09Jul26;16:00)ICiena(CIEN.K;US$462.34;1;09 Jul26;16:00)/LumentumHoldingsInc(LITE.0;US$785.77;1;09Jul26;16:00)MiniMax(0100.HK;HK$297.4;1H;09Jul26;16:10)/SamsungElectronics（SPCX.O；US$152.16;1;O9Jul26；16:0O) of the graphics in this document, please call USA1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationandcontentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated by"Ac"intheauthorblockor(ii)listed inboldalongsidecontentwhichisattributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleACanalystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand (b)viewsexpressedsolelywith respecttoaspecific issuer whichare attributabletoanotherAC certifyinganalystidentified inthepricecharts orratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviews expressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwereprepared inanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.and its affiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwill be,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendations orviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES SamsungElectronics(005930.KS)Ratings and Target Price HistoryFundamental Research 2025.Withinthepast12months,CitigroupGlobal Markets Inc.or its affiliates has acted as manageror co-managerofan offering of securitiesofCiena,SamsungElectronics,SpaceExplorationTechnologies.CitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.orits affiliates hasreceived compensationforinvestmentbanking servicesprovidedwithinthe past12monthsfromApple,Inc.,Ciena,SamsungElectronics,SpaceExplorationTechnologies.CitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.oritsaffiliates