大众：那又如何？关于未来计划的几点思考

+44 20 77625535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 76768965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.co +44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Volkswagen: Na und? Some thoughts about the Future Plan detail,becausethethree pages press release entitled"Executive Board Presents Future Plan"that hitthewires at 9pmon 9 July waslong on ideals but very short on specifics of how the plan would be executed. We do not expect the stock to react well to the details wehave sofar. Theplan in short VW stated thatthemodel lineupwill begradually concentrated on themost attractivemarket segments andstreamlined by up to 50% while the complexity of the range will be reduced by up to 75%. VW stated that it is extending its technologyleadership,a claimthatwilikelyraiseeyebrowsgiventhepace ofinnovationamong its Chinesecompetitors.Vwalso statedthattechnologyfields are being harmonized,group-wide synergies are being systematically realized,and parallelstructures arebeing eliminated.Production capacities are being adjusted tothe changed global market environment and the sharply intensifiedcompetition,targeting9mvehicles peryear (from10mat present). In summary,CE0Oliver Blume statedthat"By2030, we willmaketheVolkswagenGroupthemostattractiveautomotivecompany intheworld-withiconicbrands,inspiringproducts,leadingtechnologies,robustfinancialresults,reliablecapitalmarketperformanceandateamspiritinaction.Withourfutureplan,wearenowenteringthe next phase oftransformation." Where'sthe beef? Investors were already asking us,afterthepress release was published,"Where'sthe beef?"How willthe 1mcapacity reductionbe achieved?On themorning of9 July,Spiegel had run a storyquoting unnamed supervisoryboard members withknowledgeoftheplansthatVwwouldproposethephasingoutofproductionattheVwplants inZwickauandEmden inthenextfiveyears,while the commercial vehicleplant in Hanoverwouldfollow in2032,and the Audi plant would thenclose in Neckarsulm in 2034.This would affect around40o00 peopleemployed directly at those plants.In theevent, there was no mention ofthese plans in theFuturePlanpressrelease,althoughthisdidnotprevent WorkCouncil leaderDaniella CavallocallingforVWCEOOliverBlumetotakea stand with the workforce by Friday and to make an unequivocal statement about the rumors about the alleged board plans."The waytheboard of directorstreats theworkforcecan nolongerbe surpassed intermsofdisrespect.OliverBlumenowhas a dutytoatleastlimit thismassivedamage."Shewarnedthat if the CEodoesnotcomplywiththerequest,therewillbe"vW-wideand simultaneousextraordinaryworksmeetings"afterthesummerbreak"tosummontheboardmemberstheretothemicrophone."Cavallostressedthatthere should be no plant closures and that job cuts should only bevoluntary and socially acceptable. The usual dance or worse? There will undoubtedly be some who argue that this is all part of a well rehearsed dance betweenmanagement and the workforce, thattheunion deep-down understands and accepts that German plants must close, butthateachside must play its pre-ordained role while the closures go ahead after the spotlights have dimmed. However, there are others whowill see this as a re-run of the 2024negotiating round; then, it appeared that Oliver Blume had been tasked to demand the closureplantwasshutdown,theconcessionsachievedweresmallerthanthosedemanded,andtheIGMetal unionfamouslycalledthefinalDecember2024agreement"The Miraclebefore Christmas"Afterallthe expectations,weexpecta lotof“Naund?"from investorsaboutFuturePlan.(ContinuedonPageTwo) of the Bull case on Vwthis year has been that the proposed andnow agreed sale ofa majority stake inlarge diesel engine manufacturerEverllence might trigger a large one-time capital return.These expectations do notappearto correspond with the Future Plan comment that"thetransaction (7.4bncash inflowtoVwgroup)simultaneouslystrengthenstheGroup'sbalancesheetand expands thefinancialroomtomaneuverforthefurtherstrategicdevelopmentoftheVolkswagenGroup" (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between BernsteinandSocieteGenerale otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates" relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. We valueVolkswagen using a SOTPmethodology based on our 2026estimates.We apply individual multiples for each ofVolkswagen's divisions (core,progressive,luxury,etc.).Forits financialservices, we value itatapricetobook ratio of 2.Ox.We valueits Chinese JVson an EV/EBITof 5.5x.Weapplya50%discounttoreflectongoinggeopoliticaluncertainty,intensified competitionin China, and the nature ofa conglomerate, along with the challenges we see in turning the group around. This yiel