PROG Holdings(PRG.US)上调至买入：分部估值法显示具吸引力价值

USA | Consumer FinancePROG Holdings Equity ResearchJuly 8, 2026 PRG Upgraded to Buy: SoTP Points to AttractiveValue; Conditions Improve We upgraded PRG to BUY(1) as its core segment appears to be recoveringfromthe softness experienced over the past year,supporting a moreconstructive outlook for the second half. (2) We view that a valuation gap existsbetween a consolidated valuation v. SOTP, which we believe is more appropriategiven diversified business model.Our PT of$60.00, or 8.5x EV/EBITDA '27or 11.2x P/E '27, reflects conservatism compared to our SOTP analysis thatsuggests $65/share. We have upgraded PRG to BUY(1) as its core segment appears to be recovering from the softnessexperienced over the past year, supporting a more constructive outlook for the second half. (2) Weview that a valuation gap exists between a consolidated valuation v. SOTP, which we believe ismore appropriate given the diversified business model. Its BNPL business, at ~100% GMV growth,comes at a meaningful multiple discount. (3) This implies a multiple accretion upside, but also abuying opportunity at a significant discount.Our PT of$60.00, or 8.5x EV/EBITDA '27 or 11.2x P/E'27, reflects some conservatism compared to our SOTP analysis that suggests $65/share. Read our full report for detailed analysis. John Hecht * | Equity Analyst+1 (415) 229-1569 | jhecht@jefferies.com Alexander Villalobos-Morsink * | EquityAssociate+1 (415) 229-1479 | avillalobos@jefferies.com Yuna Sohn * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 416-9219 | ysohn@jefferies.com Aleksander Labosky * | Equity Associate+1 (650) 573-4917 | alabosky@jefferies.com The Long View: PROG Holdings Investment Thesis •Credit metrics have recovered toward historical long-term averages, butthis has come at the expense of top-line growth, as underwriting has beentightened•We believe there are various competitive moats to Progressive's strongpositioning, including the ability to underwrite, size/scale, and existing largeenterprise partnerships•We believe Progressive has significant white space available for newpartnerships/eCommgrowth,which could accelerate top-line growthdespite softness in consumer durables demand•Self-funding business model differentiates the company from traditionalfinancials Downside Scenario,$35, -19% Upside Scenario,$70, +62% Base Case,$60, +39% •Growth recovers in a more normalizedeconomicenvironmentasdemandforconsumer durables improves•Losses remain in historical ranges, followed bya recovery of invoice volume/revenue growth•We model EBITDA margins navigating backtowards 11-13% in the intermediate term•Resumption of portfolio growth supported byPurchasing Power and Four support overallmomentum•Target multiples: 11.2x '27E EPS •Economicrecession/creditcycleresurgeamong the lower-end consumer population•Competition in the sector intensifies, pressuringresults•Progressive credit metrics worsen, weighingon margins and creating need for further U/Wtightening•Soft demand for consumer durable goods andlarge ticket items persist•Target multiples: 6.6x '27E EPS •Growth accelerates further through the additionof new, national retail/eComm partnerships•Better scaling/margin expansion achievedthroughcombination of consumer durablesdemand and new partnerships•The company uses excess cash/liquidity forshare repurchases•Four segment sustain growth and becomes acompetitive player in the BNPL Market•Target multiple: 13.1x '27E EPS Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issues: 1) Selling practices.Regulators are focused on the accuracy and depth ofinformation presented consumers evaluating a leasing product; it is essential that disclosure/pricing areconsistent with requirements and constructive for consumers.2) Customer privacy.Consumers placea high value on privacy, and companies will likely increase transparency of privacy practices in the yearsto come.3)ESG reporting.We will watch for increased reporting requirements, such as Scope 1 and 2emissions and information related to DE&I initiatives. •Tightening of credit availability from traditional/prime providers of credit•Resumption of Progressive top-line growth withaccompanying margin improvement•NewProgressivenationalretail/eCommpartners•Credit performance remains within mgmt.'slong-term targets•Capital allocated toward share repurchases/capital returns/acquisitions•Regulatory developments Company Targets: 1)Respecting customers by providing transparent, compliant, and easy-to-useproduct offerings.2)Recruiting, developing, promoting- and retaining a diverse workforce.3)Improvingthe communities where customers/employees live/work. Qs to Mgmt: 1)What processes are in place for PRG to navigate consumer finance industry regulationand to protect customer data?2)What is the plan for disclosing Scope 1 and 2 emissions?3)What areyour short- and medium-term goals at the board and firm level with regard to DE&I? ESG Sector Deep Dive: Consumer Finance 1. We view that PROG saw an inflection in trends in 1Q and i