亚太市场观点：阿里巴巴/国巨/大金等核心标的点评

Thursday, 09 July 2026 Top Call | Country Top Calls | Key Rating and Target Price Changes TopCall Alibaba Group Holding (BABA/9988.HK) - FY1Q27E Preview: Cloud Growth OnHigher Margins Intact; CMR Soft On the back of soft retail sales data in April-May and muted 6.18 promotionalcampaign, we estimate Taobao/Tmall GMV to slow down to LSD in the June Q.After factoring contra-revenues impact which could be magnified further thisquarter amid 6.18 activities, we forecast CMR to decline by 8.7%yoy vs ourexpectation of +1% like-for-like growth. With more rational competition, weexpect loss from Shangou to narrow and forecast China commerce EBITA to beflattish at Rmb38bn. Due to strong demand, we model Cloud revs to accelerate to45%yoy with cloud margin improving to 11.5%. Into CY2H27, we expect astable/unexciting macro with counter-revs impact on CMR persisting for a fewquarters while cloud revs to accelerate further and maintain high-level growth withlow-teens % margin. Post-revision, our TP is adjusted to US$192/HK$191,reflecting lower multiple on AIDC and All Others. Maintain Buy on attractivevaluation and AI play. Alicia Yap, CFA Yageo (2327.TW) - 2Q26 Revenue Exceeded Guidance; Upcycle Intact Yageo reported Jun-26 revenue of NT$15.4bn (+2% MoM/+39% YoY), capping arecord 2Q26 at NT$44.5bn (+16% QoQ/+36% YoY). 2Q26 revenue beat Citi/consforecasts by 10%/6%, significantly higher than previous guidance of "moderategrowth". The strong result was broad-based across both standard and specialtyproducts, highlighting the broader scope of demand during this upcycle, ratherthan being concentrated in a single product line. With the BB ratio sustained wellabove 1.0 and AI-related orders tracking higher, we believe forward visibilityremains solid. Yageo's 1H26 revenue of NT$82.6bn already represent 47% of cons2026 forecasts, implying potential upside to full-year cons estimates as priceadjustments accelerate in 2H26 alongside the next-gen AI GPU/ASIC platformsramp. Maintain Buy. Michael Hung Yageo - Quarterly sales trend Yageo - Monthly sales trend Daikin Industries (6367.T) - How much of a catalyst is another hot summer inEurope? FY3/27 guidance assumes local currency sales growth in Europe of +6% YoY, andat ¥180/€ we estimate Europe will comprise 17% of HVAC revenue. This is thesecond-largest market after the Americas (42%) and is similar in size to Asia(including China). With summer temperatures again hitting record highs there is agrowing debate about the need for ACs in European countries where diffusionrates are low, not just in homes but also schools, hospital wards, transportsystems, etc. Daikin HVAC sales break down to 35% residential, 25% commercial,10% applied, 15% heat pumps, and 10% cold chain. We wonder if Daikin will putmore emphasis on higher-margin commercial/applied sales from here. However,the overall OPM in Europe is only expected to be c5% this year, due partly to thelow utilization at Daikin's new heat pump plant in Poland. Graeme McDonald Leader Drive (688017.SS) - Shifting Focus to Humanoid Robot from IndustrialRobot; Buy We believe that Leader Drive (LD) is gradually switching its business focus fromindustrial robot to humanoid robot (and cobot), which is evidenced by the fact that1)LD formed a humanoid robot joint JV with Minth (425.HK, covered by Kyle Wu) inthe US in Feb-26 and2)LD established a humanoid precision components JV withSKF (SKFb.ST, covered by Klas Bergelind) in China in Jul-26. For industrial robot,LD targets the “Big Four” and less price sensitive clients so that it is no longer thelargest harmonic reducer supplier to Estun (002747.SZ/2715.HK), China’s largestindustrial robot maker. We are positive about LD’s strategy shift as the humanoidrobot joint is an evolving market with less competition and faster growthpotentially. We view today’s share price correction as an enhanced buyingopportunity ahead of the humanoid robot production ramp of its potential USclient. Jamie Wang Tesla Optimus production estimates CountryTopCalls China and Hong Kong Diversified Utilities - 1H26E Results Preview – PreferEquipment Suppliers to Operators We generally prefer equipment suppliers to operators in the PRC & HK utility,renewable and equipment sector expecting more earnings beats for the former andearnings misses for the latter. On the positive side, we expect decent profit growth for such equipment names as Sieyuan (up 30-35% yoy), TBEA (+20% yoy) andPinggao (+15% yoy). TBEA was recently allowed to bid for government projects inIndia which should be good news. On the cautious side, most PRC power and gasnames are assumed to have 1H26E earnings misses, except for China YangtzePower. Among HK utilities Guangdong Investment is our top pick for its high(6.4%) 2026E yield. Pierre Lau, CFA Dr. Lal Pathlabs (DLPA.BO) - Network Expansion Paying Off, Adding a 90D +veCW We introduce a 90-day Positive Catalyst Watch on Dr. Lal PathLabs. Despite a~20% stock appreciation over the last th