更严格的资本规则对A股市场有利

China liquidity inflows+ Growth indices like ChiNext (going global)and STAR50 (tech Analyst,China EquityStrategyResearchHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitecjeffrey.p.xie@hsbcqh.com.cn+861057952361Steven Sun*, CFA (Reg.No.S1700517110003) self-sufficiency) to benefit the most HeadofResearch,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedstevensun@hsbcqh.com.cn+8675588983158Neal Chen*,PhD (Reg.No.S1700524120001) styleformutualfundswill be limited Analyst,China EquityStrategyResearchneal.m.chen@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662066Lydia Li*, CFA (Reg.No.S1700525040002) 1July2026, is China'sfirst dedicatedadministrative regulation onoutbound investment,turningfragmenteddepartmental rules into a unified legalframework.Inthis report,weassesstheimpact.Tighter controls,clearer direction.TheRegulation on Outbound Investment (link) Analyst, China Equity StrategyResearchHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimiteclydia.j.y.li@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662022 andenhanced regulationof cross-bordersecuritiesand insurancecompanies suggestthat regulators intend to channel capital back to authorised markets like the A-sharemarket and the Southbound Connect. We see this as the third round of capital outflowrestrictionssince2016(Exhibit1):1)2016-17:Regulatingunlawfulsellingofoverseasinsuranceproductsandrestrictingoverseasinvestmentinsectors likereal estate;2)2021-22: Prohibited overseas institutions (e.g., Futu and UP Fintech) from openingnewaccountsfor onshoreresidents;and3)atwo-yearinitiativetopreventunlawfulcross-borderoperationsconductedbyoverseasfinancialinstitutions. not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Impactfor financial institutions.The impact could be limited forbanks; however,forinsurers,more regulatoryguidance, especiallyfor cross-border sales,distribution andenforcement, is expected. For brokers, we estimate the suspension of cross-borderequity total return swaps (TRS) could suggest a 0.8-1.2% impact on the top 10 listedbrokers'total revenue. Cross-border asset management is also facing more compliancerequirements, but onshore wealth managers might benefit from some offshore investmentactivities going back toonshore channels (see Hong Kong Financials:Topten Q&Aon cross-border wealth flows, Gary Lam, 29 June 2026). ImpactforChinastocks.WebelievetherequlationispositivefortheA-sharemarketas both onshore institutions and personal investments face greater difficulty in investingin overseas markets. Onshore growth stocks offering going global opportunities (e.g.,ChiNext) and tech self-sufficiency (e.g., STAR50) should benefit the most. For H-shares,this couldbea short-termnegativeasonshorefunds will haveto sell stakes fromtheiroriginal brokeraccountsbutshouldbeneutral whenthesefundsarechannelledbackand re-investedthroughthe Southbound channel.As such,weexpectto see continuedsouthbound inflows (Exhibit 2). Impact of the correction on mutual funds'style shift. Our analysis suggests thattheimpactcouldbelimitedasitinvolvesmarketcapofonlyRMB11.6bn-0.3%ofthetotal AUM of active mutual funds of RMB4.Otrn (Exhibit 9), much less than investorsanticipated. This is because: 1)most active mutual funds are flexible enough to avoidconcentration inoneindustryoronethemeandthetotal AUMof consumer,healthcarespecial mandate funds, only a small fraction of AUM is involved in style drift, especiallyfor healthcare-mandate funds (1.4% AUM).We find the stocks beneftting most fromstyle drift are CATL, TFC and Eoptolink (Exhibit 10). In our view, the Al-centric rallywillbroaden,drivenbyfundamentals (industrials and materials),valuationsandpositions (consumer-related), and dividend appeal (high-yield stocks) Nocountryforbears The24th edition of theEMSentiment Survey Click to view Disclosures&Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Qianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s)is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Jeffrey Xie, Steven Sun, CFA, Neal Chen, PhD and Lydia Li, CFAImportant disclosures Equities: Stockratings and basis for financialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (HSBC) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should