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占据商业下一阶段核心位置,重申买入

2026-07-09 - 美国银行 报告酱 | 发现报告
报告封面

Positioned at the core of commerce's nextphase; Reinstate Buy and $150 P0 Reinstating Coverage: BUY I PO: 150.00 USD I Price: 120.14 USD 07July2026 Agenticcommercedrivesnextphaseofgrowth We are reinstating coverage with a Buy and a $150 PO, based on 22x CY27E EV/GrossProfit, as we believe Shopify could be a core beneficiary of the shift toward Al-driven,agentic commerce rather than being disintermediated by it. We see Shopify's backendinfrastructure, such as checkout and payments, as increasingly central to Al-nativetransactions, potentially supporting future revenue growth. Concerns around platformbypass have driven shares down 25% YTD, creating an attractive entry point, in our view. Equity Tal LianiResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5107tal.liani@bofa.com Kevin NiederpruemResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855-1540kevin.niederpruem@bofa.com Al debate misses Shopify's structural advantage The key debate centers on whether Al threatens Shopify's role in the commerce stack.We believe there is a misunderstanding around Shopify's involvement with agentic Aland disagree with the bear thesis. As discovery shifts to agentic interfaces, valueaccrues to the transaction and infrastructure layers, where Shopify is deeply embedded.With agentic commerce estimated to reach ~20% of ecommerce by 2030, this evolutionis a meaningful opportunity for Shopify, and the company is poised to materially benefit. Eden VacnichResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1971eden.vacnich@bofa.com Multipledurable growthleversbeyondAl Shopify benefits from other durable growth drivers such as international expansion andenterprisepenetration. International GMV grew 45%YoY in 1Q26,with ex-US paymentsup7o%+,highlightingasignificantglobal opportunitygivennon-Usrevenuesrepresent37% of total revenue. Upmarket momentum is also seeing traction, with >$25mn GMVmerchants growing fastest and Shopify Plus growing 20% YoY.We view these drivers asexpanding the TAM, improving retention, and converting to robust top-line growth. Price120.14USDPrice Objective150.00 USDDate Established7-Jul-2026Investment OpinionC-1-952-Week Range94.00 USD -182.19 USDMrkt Val (mn) /Shares Out145,978 USD /1,215.1 Best-in-classgrowthatscalesupportpremium We highlight scale and high growth levels, with 24-28% revenue growth in FY26-FY28E.payments nature of the business, and we model operating and free cash flow margins toexpandfrom17.1%and17.4%in2025,to20.5%and20.3%in2028E,respectively.Lowgross margin dictates EV/GP valuation metric and our 22x target is higher than the peergroup average of 18.1x, justified by an elevated growth profile and expanding margins. >This stock has been placed under review. Because there is no current coverage, you shouldconsider this a no opinion. Until the opinion is reinstated, solicitations must follow proceduresestablished for no opinion securities. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports.As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 16 to 18. Analyst Certification on page 14. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 14.12991070 iQprofiles" Shopify, Inc Company SectorSoftware Company Description Shopify is a leading global commerce platform thatprovides cloud-based software and services enablingbusinesses to create, manage, and scale online and offineretail operations. The company generates revenue througha combination of subscription free and merchant solutionsincluding payments, shipment, and other services,positioning it as core infrastructure for digital commerceglobally. Investment Rationale Shopify is positioned as a core infrastructure layer for globalcommerce, with its integrated platform, paymentcapabilities, and product ecosystem embedding moredeeply into emerging Al-driven commerce workflows andmerchant operations. We believe the company is wellaligned with the structural evolution in commerce,supported by durable growth drivers including agenticcommerce, international expansion, and enterpriseadoption. Stock Data Average Daily VolumeL06'0E0'6 Key Debate: Will Al temper growth? The bear case surrounding Shopify has centered on the risk that Al, particularly agenticShopify's role and relevance in the commerce stack could be structurally diminished andbeneficiary of this shift, with its infrastructure, product catalog, and paymentcapabilities becoming increasingly embedded in the agentic commerce ecosystem Not only do we believe that Al, or agentic commerce, will support elevated growth, butsee three primary growth drivers: the default backend powering transactions and merchants across Al platforms. 2.International expansion. Broader geographic adoption represents a large andunderpenetratedopportunity,withShopifycontinuingtoscalebothgloballyandthrough deeper pr