味之素2802JP ABF业务增量空间 事业部研讨会核心要点

+81359629611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com +85221232627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com +81367776995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com Ajinomoto's incremental ABF upside & key takeaways fromtoday's divisional seminar Increasing ABF intensityfor Al-related CPUs, commercial adoption of AFTINNOVA MagneticMaterials, further space for expansion at the Gunma site, and more clarity around Ajinomoto'sabilitytocompeteinnextgeneration solutions wereamong ourbiggesttakeaways fromtoday's ABF Divisional seminar (link).We now see upside to our 34% revenue growth and55%BPgrowth estimates fortheFunctional Materials division inFY3/27&28comingfromCPUdemand,and co-packaged optics.We also seeamajorincrementalopportunityforthe During today's session,managementalso confirmed our viewthat the company's keymoatlies intheirtightrelationship withthe chipdesigners (inadditiontothesubstratemanufacturers),and their resultingaccess to early stage chip R&D which allows Ajinomotoheat, bandwidth, power supply,connectivity,etc.,as we take on the responsibility ofmakingdefacto standards" Management alsoflaggedcontinued strong salesmomentumYTD,implyingatoraboveQ4's42%revenuegrowth rate,andalsoconfirmedthatcustomerby customerprice increasediscussions are under way, howeverthey did not comment on timing ormagnitude. Weexpecttoseeoverall11%/28%/10%and8%/25%/26%Ajinomotorevenue/BP/EPSgrowth inFY3/27&28,andourEPSestimatesare7%/12%/14%aboveconsensus. InvestmentImplications Bernstein Forecasts..8 relationship with the key decision makers forms the basis of their sustainable moat, in ourview The Mechanism Supporting the Evolution of ABFTM: OurHigh-SpeedDevelopmentSystemOurhigh-speeddevelopmentsystem anticipatesfuture customer needs toalways meetthose needs inadvance. We workcloselywith theplayers in thevalue chain toprovide valuewitha unified system,fromdevelopmenttomassproduction.Customers AjinomotoGroupSynergy:Analysis andquality assurance technologies,developedthrough"AminoScience,functionasthe basisforthe evaluationof designers,whoarethekeydecisionmakers,andthesubstratemanufacturers,whoaretheendcustomersDevelopmentandProductionStructureEat Wel, Live Well grounded in our trackrecord and reliability.Also, our structure that reproduces customers'manufacturing andevaluationprocesses inourGroup is akeyfoundation supportinghigh-speeddevelopment. area below), and we see this as a realistic pre 2030 capacity lever in addition to the increase of production shiftsfrom 1-3 each day weseeABFRcCas thenextmajorcommercialopportunityallowingAjinomotostartpenetratingthehugemobiledevice TAMAddressingABFTMPeripheralAreas semiconductorpower,bandwith,andheatregulationneedsAddressing Future Technologies AddressingNext-GenerationPackagingTechnologies (TheFutureofOurBusinesswithTechnologicalProgress)Fornext-generation packagesthataddressfuturetechnological developments,wewill not onlymakeuseof ABFTMbutalsoourstrengths,suchasABFTMtechnologiesand infrastructure,toadvancethedevelopmentofwetake on theresponsibility of making defacto standards. Addressing Future Technologies AddressingNext-Generation PackageTechnologies *Interfaceforconvertingelectrical signals intooptical signalsfortransmission opticalfiber connects fromthe pluggable module.Electricalsignals travel between the ASIC and the pluggable module viathe PCB.With faster speeds, loss from electrical interconnect andincreasedpowerconsumptionbecomeissues CPO :Atechnology that integrates an optical interface into the same package as the ASiC to minimizeelectricalinterconnectdistances,significantlyimprovingpowerefficiencyandspeed.Optical-electrical adhesives,in addition to high specification ABFAddressing Future Technologies AddressingNext-GenerationPackageTechnologies (EvolutionfromtheCurrentState)cpoisatechnologythatperforms optical-electricalconversionnearAsiCs insemiconductorpackagesto reducepowerconsumptionbyshorteningthe electrical interconnectdistance.Wewill evolveABFrM andleverageour strengths,suchas ourtechnologies and infrastructure,builtupthroughABFTM,tocontributetotheadvancement ofpackages. BERNSTEINFORECASTS We expect mix evolution andthe introduction of new specifications at higherprice points to remain the keydrivers of ABFrevenue growth (Exhibit 8, Exhibit 9), however, with customers raising downstream prices in the substrateprices by 15-30%Ajinomotomanagementnowhaveplans for like-for-likepriceincreases,andwe expectthisto driveacceleration (seeAjinomoto's new pricing paradigm - Upgrading to Outperform). ExcludingupsidefromAlCPUrelateddemand expansionas inferencedemand is increasinglycomplementedbyAgenticdemand, we expect ABF revenue to grow by 35% in FY3/27&28, with operational leverage returning to 1.6x(Exhibit 10) andBPgrowing by 56%.Should downstream capacity constraints drive further price increases by customers likeUnimicron, NanYaPCB and Ibiden', we could see further pricing upside to our Ajinomoto est. Weexpectoverall Ajinomototodeliveran8.3%revenueCAGR inFY3/26-29E,a24%CAGRinbusin