味之素ABF与CDMO增长即将加速

Ajinomoto(2802)| Japan Tomonobu Tsunoyama Equity AnalystTomonobu.Tsunoyama@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-8936 ABF, CDMO Growth Poised toAccelerate Seki LiResearch AssociateSeki.Li@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-8934 What’s Changed Jully UssuiResearch AssociateJully.Akina.Ussui.Nakao@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-5408 We expect valuation to rise relative to food industry peers inF3/27 as Ajinomoto’s unique ABF and CDMO businesses forgeahead. Food business costs will rise (Middle East conflictimpact), we expect subsequent price hikes to offset this over thefull year, heralding margin improvement heading into F3/28. Ajinomoto (2802.T, 2802 JP) Stock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewIn-LinePrice target¥6,300Up/downside to price target (%)8Shr price, close (Jun 29, 2026)¥5,816Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)¥5,686.5Div yld (03/27e) (%)0.9 ABF growth accelerating:We expect growth in ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) andCDMO (contract development & manufacturing organization) unique to Ajinomotoin the food sector to take off in F3/27, driving a relative rise in valuation. For ABF, welook for increases in volume & ASP to accelerate growth, with a full year new plantcontribution (onstream last October) and higher sales weighting of high spec ABFfor applications such as AI. A shift to larger and higher layer count ABF productswith the drive to higher value-added CPUs and GPUs has been increasing ABF salesvolume and ASP. In flip chip package substrate application, Ajinomoto’s products arealready used in the NVIDIA Blackwell GPU, which began volume shipment around2024. In F3/27, we expect flip chip package production for the successor Rubin GPUto get fully underway, and to step up the pace of increase in ABF volume & price.We envisage functional materials subsegment sales up 24% YoY to ¥124.7bn inF3/27 (guidance: ¥111.6bn), 26% to ¥156.7bn in F3/28 and 27% to ¥199.5bn in F3/29. Pressing ahead with ensuring capacity:CEO Nakamura says that while verticalstartup of the new plant was successful in October 2025, it remains in single-shiftoperation, meaning ample scope to expand capacity. Ajinomoto has also announcedacquisition of a site for another new plant (to start in 2032) and can bring the startdate forward if AI demand grows faster than it currently projects. Supply capacityhas been a concern, but such news flow suggests it is and will remain solid. Our F3/27 business profit forecast is ¥206bn (+14% YoY; previously ¥208bn):We make modest revisions to our F3/27 BP forecasts to reflect the F3/26 resultsand the recent impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We now forecastBP of ¥146.6bn for seasonings & foods (+3% YoY, previously ¥154.5bn), ¥10.4bn forfrozen foods (+24% YoY, unchanged), ¥70.0bn for functional materials (+28% YoY,previously ¥68.7bn), and ¥17.5bn for the bio-pharma business (+84% YoY, previously¥14.2bn). We lower our seasonings & foods forecast to incorporate the impact ofthe Middle East situation, while raising our forecasts for the functional materials andbio-pharma businesses. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. We expect BP to beat guidance for ¥197bn as functional materials overshoot. For the bio-pharma business, we raise our subsegment BP forecast to broadly in line with companyguidance, driven by stronger contributions from its proprietary technologies (AJIPHASEand AJICAP) and steady earnings growth in the small-molecule business. We alsoanticipate attaining EBITDA break-even at Forge (topline growth & higher productivity)will help accelerate earnings growth. In foods, we anticipate that a rise in fermentationmaterials such as ammonia and tapioca will hit earnings in 1H, but think the firm can offsetthis cost increase over the full year and deliver YoY earnings growth by speeding up itsrolling forecast program and making strategic price hikes, with an added boost from aweaker yen. As F3/23 after the Ukraine conflict, we expect this to present an opportunityfor margin improvement from F3/28 on. We forecast F3/28 BP of ¥238.0bn (+16% YoY, vs. our previous forecast of ¥232.0bn):By segment, we forecast ¥155.3bn for seasonings & foods (+6% YoY, previously ¥162.7bn),¥11.2bn for frozen foods (+8% YoY, unchanged), ¥91.2bn for functional materials (+30%YoY, previously ¥81.8bn), and ¥21.