CMBI研究核心列表：我们的高置信度最佳投资标的

Our best high conviction ideas Latest additions/deletions from CMBI Focus List Performance of our recommendations In our last list dated11 Jun2026, we highlighted a list of25long ideas. The basket (equal weighted) of these25stocksoutperformedMSCI China index by0.6ppts,delivering-2.7%return (vs MSCI China-3.3%).13out of the25stocksoutperformed the benchmark. Long Ideas HorizonRobotics(9660HK)-Highgrowthpotentialwithuniquepositioning Rating:BUY| TP:HK$10.00(127%upside) Analysts:SHI Ji/ DOU Wenjing/AustinLiang MaintainBUY.ManagementhasraiseditsrevenueCAGRguidanceforthenext few years from 50%to 60%after Horizon SuperDrive(HSD)rollouts.WebelieveHorizoniswellpositionedwithitsrisingmarketshareincity NOA solutions,upcoming cockpit-driving fusion solutions,pilotoperationofrobotaxis,andoverseasgrowthamidpartnershipswithglobaltier-1suppliers.WethinkitdeservesavaluationpremiumgivenitsuniquevalueinChina’sAD/roboticsindustries. Poisedforhighgrowthwithdiversifiedsolutionsandclients.HSD,acityNOAsolutionwithin-housealgorithmspoweredbyitsmostadvancedchips,hasbeenwellreceived.ManagementexpectsHSDsalesvolumetorise18xYoYto0.4mnunitsinFY26EandweprojectsuchnumberstobemorethandoubledYoYinbothFY27EandFY28E.Thecockpit-drivingfusionSoC,theStarry,isexpectedforSOPin3Q26withtheCheryiCarV25.Weexpectsuchsolutionstobequitecompetitivegivenitslaunchtimeisclose to the Qualcomm SA8797 and its proven capabilities in ADsolutions.Horizonalsotargetspilot operationofrobotaxisin3Q26withecosystempartners,showcasing itscomprehensiveAD capabilities.WeareoftheviewthatinvestorsshouldnotunderestimateHorizon’sgrowthpotentialinoverseasmarketsandfromforeigncarmakers,asitpartnerswithglobal leading tier-1 suppliers.It has secured shipment of modelnominationsof10mnunitsoverthelifecyclefrom3foreignmarques. Earnings/Valuation.We project revenue to rise 57%/65%/60%YoY inFY26-28E,driven by 5.5mn/7.3mn/9.1mn shipments and surging priceswithhigherHSDcontribution.Weexpectadj.netlosstonarrowinFY26-27Eandanadj.netprofitofRMB2.5bninFY28E.WemaintainourBUYratingwithatargetpriceofHK$10.00,whichisbasedon13xFY27EP/S,asimilarleveltoNvidia’s(NVDAUS,NR).WeareoftheviewthatsuchvaluationisjustifiedgivenitsscarcityinbothchipandsoftwarecapabilitiesinChina’s AD/robotics industries and its unique value amid currentgeopoliticaltensions. Linktolatestreport:HorizonRobotics(9660HK)-Highgrowthpotentialwithuniquepositioning Zenergy(3677HK)-Strongervolumevisibilityandsolidmarginresilience Rating:BUY| TP:HK$18.00(223%upside) Analysts:SHI Ji/ DOU Wenjing/AustinLiang Maintain BUY.Management showed strong confidence in its full-yeardeliveriesofover30GWh.Thecontrollingshareholdervoluntarilylockeditsstakeforanadditional12monthsfollowingtheremovalofrestrictionsonoldshares on 14 Apr.We believe the selling pressure from pre-IPOshareholdersshould have been largely released.We expect newproductionlineswithhigherefficiencycoupledwithbettercostcontrolandminimallegacyburdentodrivehigher-than-peersmargins.Thecompany’slong-termvalueisstillunderestimatedbyinvestors,inourview. Neworderscouldbebetterthanexpected.ManagementturnedmorepositiveonitssalesvolumeinFY26E,withanewguidanceof30+GWhattheanalystbriefing,upfrom30GWhinAug2025,asitsecureddesignwinsfor32newmodelsinFY25.Thecompanyalsoexpectsenergystoragetoaccountfor 10-15%of total sales volume this year with new capacityavailable.Therefore,we’verevisedupourFY26Esalesvolumeforecastfrom30GWhto33GWh.ZenergyislikelytofurtherexpanditscapacityinFY27E after a planned capacity increase of 35GWh in FY26E,whichprobablyimpliesmoresolidorderbacklogthanwehadexpected.We’veraisedourFY27Esalesvolumeforecastfrom45GWhto50GWh. SuperbopexcontroltooffsetpossibleGPMpressure.WeareoftheviewthatbatterymakerscouldfacemoreGPMpressurethisyearamidrisingrawmaterialcosts,stiffercompetition inChina’sNEV marketandcurrentgeopoliticaltension.WebelievesuchpossibledentcouldbeoffsetbyZenergy’sstringentopexcontrolandgreatereconomiesofscale.WeprojectGPMtonarrowby1.5pptsYoYto16.9%inFY26EandSG&AandR&Dcombinedratiotodropby2.7pptsYoYto8.5%duringthesameperiod. Earnings/Valuation.Inourlatestnote,we’verevisedupourFY26-27Enetprofitestimates by 7%/10%to RMB1.46bn/2.07bn,respectively.WemaintainourBUYratingandtargetpriceofHK$18.00,basedon20xourrevisedFY27EP/EtoreflectGPMuncertainties. Linktolatestreport:Zenergy(3677HK)-Brightersalesoutlookafterstrong2H25earnings Weichai Power (2338 HK)–AIDC power still the key Rating:BUY| TP:HK$45.1(21%upside) InvestmentThesis:Weichaiisnowtransformingintoapowerplay.Weexpectthecontributionofpower-relatedengineEBITDA(onattributablebasis)to increase substantially from 17%in 2026E to 38%in 2028E.Withinthepowersegment,AIDC enginesales havebeengrowing fastsincelastyear(+2.6xYoYin2025;+2.4xYoYin1Q26). OurView:ForAIDCengines,weexpectfull-yearsalesin2026Etosurge1.8xYoYto4kunits.Inparticular,weexpectthebreakthroughintheUSmarkettocontinuetogaintraction.Forthetraditionalbusiness,HDTsarestillin an upcycle,driven by solid replacement demand,supportivereplac