CMBI研究焦点清单：我们最佳的高信念投资建议

CMBI Research Focus ListOur best high conviction ideas Latest additions/deletions from CMBI Focus List Performance of our recommendations In our last report dated 22 Apr 2025, we highlighted a list of 22 long ideas.The basket (equal weighted) of these 22 stocks underperformed MSCI China index by 2.1ppts,delivering 6.0% return (vs MSCI China 8.1%).6out of the 22 stocksoutperformed the benchmark. Long Ideas GeelyAutomobile(175HK)–Moresynergiestocome Rating:BUY|TP:HK$24.00 (24%upside) Analysts:Shi JI/ Wenjing Dou/Austin Liang 1Q25costcontrolbetterthanexpected.Geely’s1Q25netprofitofRMB5.7bnwasinlinewithitspreviousprofitalertofRMB5.2-5.8bn,whileitsSG&Aexpensesweresignificantlylowerthanourpriorforecast.Geely’s1Q25revenueandGPMbothwerebelowourpriorexpectation,probablyduetothepricereductioninearlyMarinordertocompetewithBYD’sfaceliftedmodels.Zeekr’sGPMin1Q25wasabout3pptshigherthanourforecast,astheZeekr009’sGPMcouldbesignificantlyhigherthanourprojection.Thatalsoresultedinabetter-than-expectednetprofitforZeekr. Moresynergiestocome.ItappearstousthatGeely’ssuperbcostcontrolin1Q25hasreflectedtheinitialsynergiesbetweenZeekrandLynk&Co.Totalsavingsinprocurementcosts,SG&AandR&DexpensescombinedcouldbeasmuchasseveralbillionRMB,basedonmanagement’sguidance,afterthefullintegrationofbrands,platformsandmanagement.ShouldGeely’ssharepricecontinuetorise,moreshareholdersofZeekr(ZKUS,NR)mayconverttheirsharestoGeely’s,whichcouldlowerGeely’scashburdentoprivatizeZeekr.WeexpectasignificantprofitincreaseatZeekrtostartfromFY26E,whichmeansnowcouldbeagoodtimingfortheprivatization. Earnings/Valuation.WeraiseourFY25Esalesvolumeforecastfrom2.74mnunitsto2.8mnunits.WealsoreviseupFY25EforecastforGPMby0.7pptsto16.1%.Accordingly,wereviseupourFY25Enetprofitby4%toRMB15.2bn.WealsoraiseourFY26Enetprofitby4%toRMB16.7bnfortworeasons:1)costsavingsfromsynergies;2)greaterstakesinZeekr(100%vs.65.7%)aftertheproposedprivatization.WemaintainourBUYratingwithatargetpriceofHK$24.00,basedon15xourFY25EP/E.WeareoftheviewthatsuchmultipleisjustifiedgiventhatBYD(1211HK,BUY)isnowtradingat21xourFY25EP/E. Linktolatestreport:GeelyAutomobile(175HK)-Moresynergiestocome Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US/9868 HK)–New model cycle + Overseas + AD + Robot Rating:BUY| TP:US$28.00 (35%upside) Analysts:ShiJI/ Wenjing Dou/Austin Liang StrongmodelcyclewithoverseasexpansiontoliftFY25-26Esalesvolumeandprofit.WeareoftheviewthatXpeng’sstrongsalesvolumein1Q24couldextendintotherestof2025,asitstillhasaplethoraofnewmodelsinthepipeline.WeexpectitsFY25EsalesvolumetomorethandoubleYoYto440,000units.Wealsoprojectitsvehiclemargintowidenfrom10.0%in4Q24to11.3%inFY25E.Weestimateaquarterlybreakevensalesvolumetobe130,000-140,000unitsamidthecurrentproductmix.Therefore,weexpectXpengtoachievebreakevenin4Q25E.NewmodelsinFY25Ewouldhaveafull-yearcontributioninFY26E,whichleadsourFY26Esalesvolumeforecastto600,000units.WeprojectFY26EnetprofittobeRMB1.2bn,takingpossiblyhigherR&DforrobotsandotherAIprojectsintoconsideration. EarlymoverinrobotwithAIcapabilitiestoliftvaluation.Mostquestionsduringitsearningscallandpost-earningsNDRsfocusedonautonomousdriving(AD)androbot,bothofwhicharerelatedtoAIcapabilities.WeareoftheviewthatautomakerswithsuperbADtechnologiesarenaturallystrongcompetitorsintherobotindustry.Xpeng’searlymoveinrobotcouldmakeitevenmorecompetitive. Valuation/Keyrisks.WemaintainourBUYratingandtargetpriceofUS$28.00(HK$110),basedon1.8xourrevisedFY26EP/S.Werolloverourvaluationmultiple,aswebelieveFY26EcouldbetterreflectXpeng’sstrongmodelcyclewhennewmodelshavefull-yearcontribution.WethinkavaluationthatisslightlyhigherthanpeersandpreviousmultipleisjustifiedgivenitsleadingAIcapabilitiesandbetteroutlookforhumanoidrobotsthanbefore.Keyriskstoourratingandtargetpriceincludelowersalesvolumeand/orGPMthanweexpect,slowermonetizationtimelineforrobotandasectorde-rating. Linkstolatestreports:XpengInc.(XPEVUS/9868HK)-Newmodelcycle+Overseas+AD+Robot Auto-1Q25salesvolume,discountsmayleadtolargerearningsdivergence Zoomlion (1157 HK)–Positive on the structural overseas growth Rating:BUY| TP:HK$7.4 (32%upside) Analyst:Wayne FungAnalyst:Wayne Fung InvestmentThesis:WecontinuetolikeZoomlion’sglobalexpansionstrategy.Ontheproductside,theofferingoffullrangeofmachinerythroughaneffectivedirectsalesmodelenablesZoomliontopenetratedifferentkeymarketsinoverseas.Onregions,theprioritiesonemergingeconomiessuchastheMiddleEast,MiddleAsiaandSoutheastAsiaoverEuropeandNorthAmericamakeitsubjecttolessgeopoliticalandtariff-relatedrisks.WeseetheH-sharebuybackasanear-termcatalyst. OurView:Zoomlion’s2024resultswereweakerthanourexpectation,duetoaslowdownofoverseasrevenuegrowth(14%)in4Q24,reductionofotherincome,andincreaseininventoryturnoverdays.WeremainpositiveonZoomlion,as:(1)overseasmarketexpansionwillbeaccelerated;(2)earth-working,mining,andagriculturalmachinerywillcontinuetobegrowthdrivers;(3)share-basedexpenses,whichsurged2.1xYoYtoRMB866mn,isexpectedtodrop>50%in2025;(4)otheroperatingexpensesareexpectedtobeonadowntrend. Whydowediffervs