买入:来自核心服务器和晶圆厂估值的更多上行空间

EquitiesSemiconductors & Equipment Buy:More upside from core server & foundry valuation United States ◆Server CPU growth remains the key driver for Intel’searningsgrowth in 2026/27 ◆Intelfoundry narrative too good to ignore now; engagementscould come to fruitionstartingin2H26◆RetainBuy;raise TP to astreet-highUSD200(from USD100)oninclusion offoundryin ourSOTPvaluation MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)200.00100.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE127.02+57.5%(as of01 Jul 2026) Improving view onfoundrybusinessdriving upside to our SOTPvaluation:In our21 AprilUpgrade to Buynote, we highlightedthe unpriced server CPU upside as thekey catalystanddid notincludeIntel Foundryin our SOTP valuationamidexternalcustomer-related uncertainty. Since then, the foundry capacity bottlenecks–both frontand backend–havebeen widelyacknowledged,andIntel’s external customerengagementhas been growingfor both. We expectdesign commitments starting 2H26.Hence, weincludeIntel Foundryin our SOTP valuation,driving our TPincrease. Server CPUs remain key earnings growth driverwith room for upside surprise:Intel iswellpositioned to deliver upside to 2026/27 server CPUshipments, driven byinternal foundry capacity reallocation.For 2026, we raise our server CPU shipmentgrowth estimate from 20% to 25% y-o-y, driving our DCAI revenue estimate toUSD24.1bn (4%aboveconsensus). While the gapwithconsensushas narrowed for2026, we believe the street still underestimates 2027 growth potential despite a 23%upward revision since Intel’s 1Q26 results.We raise our2027server CPU shipmentgrowthestimatefrom 20% to 30% y-o-y ascapacityfor server CPUs expandsamidreallocation,along with the ramp of 18A–running ahead of internal projections.Our2027 DCAI revenue estimate of USD33.0bn is 20% aboveconsensusestimates. Improvingfoundrynarrative; EMIBcoulddrivematerialupside:Foundry constraintsin front-end fabrication and advanced packaging are driving a supply-demandimbalance. With TSMC’s additional 3nm capacity coming onlineonlyin 2H27, customersare exploring new foundry partners.Intel is emerging as a leading option, signingTerafaband Apple as customers,and engaging with GoogleandNVIDIA.Packagingalso remains a pressure point–tight TSMC CoWoS capacity is pushing customers toconsider Intel’s EMIB solution.CoWoS-Lis largelyallocated to Nvidia, whileCoWoS-Speaksat 3.3x reticle size. EMIB canscale to 12x reticle size,making it an attractivealternative.Oursensitivity analysissuggestsabroader EMIB adoption could lift IntelEPS by 23% in 2028vsthe base case.Intel securing an order of 3m Google TPUs is akey driver of our 2027/28 foundry revenue estimate increase (8%/7% above consensus).Intel expectsdesign commitments to emerge through 2H26 and into 1H27, leavingroomfor upside to capex–our 2027/28 capex estimates of USD18.8bn/USD20.7bn are13%/10% above consensus. Frank Lee*Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6916 Pulkit Aggarwal*AssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations RetainBuy, raiseTPtoUSD200(from USD100)on foundry driven SOTP upside:Wevalue the core businessusing a 2027 target PE of 30x (previously 26x) and the foundrybusiness using a target2027PBof3.5x. Our rounded TP of USD200(from USD100) isnow the highest onthestreet as our 2026/27 EPS estimates remain21%/55% aboveconsensus. With c58% upside to our TP, we retain our Buy rating. We seecorebusinessstrength coupled with our expectations of foundry engagements coming to fruition starting2H26 and into 2027. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Intel Corp Whythe Foundry business warrants inclusion in our SOTP now In our 21 AprilUpgrade to Buynote, wehighlightedthatdespite recent share price movement,the server CPU upside was not priced in. Since Intel reported its 1Q26 financial results on23April, the stock has rallied90% (vs SOX +32% during the same period).Followingthefinancial results announcement, the marketacknowledgedthe agentic AI-led server CPUdemand boost and how Intel stood to benefit from it as its 2Q26 guidance wasmuch higher thanmarketexpectations, led by its DCAI segment.While server CPU remains the keyfor earningsgrowth, Intel has gained a lot of traction with external customers for its IntelFoundry–both onfront-end wafer fabrication as well as its advanced packagingsolution–Embedded Multi-dieInterconnect Bridge (EMIB). After adding Terafabas an external foundry customer,Intel has now reportedly added GoogleandApple as external foundry customersas well(The Information, 8 June and Reuters,