医疗设施：医院调查Q2显示业务量减速迹象

Hospital Survey: Q2 shows signs ofdeceleration in volumes Industry Overview 07 July 2026 Our surveys imply Q2 volumes of +0.4% for publicsBeginning as of 4Q25, we have transitioned from producing a monthly hospital volume EquityUnited StatesHC Facilities survey to a quarterly survey. In our survey of 50 hospitals, inpatient admissions slightlydecelerated to +2.4% y/y in 2Q26 vs +2.5% in Q1, and outpatient visits decelerated to+2.8% in 2Q26 vs +4.4% in Q1. For the quarter, the surveys imply volumes decelerate-90bps Q/Q in Q2 vs Q1. Assuming same store adjusted admissions for the publiclytraded hospitals changed in line with the survey results (-90bps Q/Q), we estimate+0.4% vols in 2Q26 (vs +1.3% average for HCA, THC, UHS’s Acute, and ARDT in 1Q26). Kevin Fischbeck, CFAResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5948kevin.fischbeck@bofa.com Joanna GajukResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3961joanna.gajuk@bofa.com Vol growth outlook +3.2% (slightly down vs +3.7% in Q1) Survey respondents expect adjusted admission growth of +3.2% y/y over the next 12months on average, well above LTindustry growth of 1-2%. However, this is -50bpslower than our last quarter’s result (+3.7%). Craig JonesResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 743 2020craig.jones3@bofa.com Uninsured/Commercial grew fastest In 2Q26, Uninsured volumes saw the strongest growth (+1.8%), followed by Commercial(+1.5%), Medicaid volumes (+1.3%) and Medicare volumes (+1.0%). Joaquin Arriagada MartinezResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1654joaquin.arriagadamartinez@bofa.com 74% use AI to improve revenue capture; avg +1.8% lift74% of hospitals reported using AI to improve revenue capture. The average hospital Katie FitzGeraldResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 556 2930katie.fitzgerald@bofa.com reported seeing a +1.8% lift to revenue from using AI, despite 26% not using it at all.22%reported gains above 3%. Outpatient decelerated, but above inpatientgrowth Outpatient visits grew +2.8% y/y in 2Q26, a deceleration from +4.4% in Q1. The growthwas above inpatient growth (+2.4% y/y), which also slowed down 10bps q/q. Inpatient/ Outpatient surgeries decelerated in 2Q26 Inpatient surgeries (+1.5% y/y) grew above outpatient surgeries (+1.1%).However,Inpatient surgery growth decelerated -110bps q/q and Outpatient surgery growthdecelerated -310bps from Q1 (+4.2%). ACA exchange vols grew modestly y/y in Q2ACA exchange grew +0.3% y/y in 2Q26. Going forward, 28% of respondents expect a modest headwind (0–50bps) from ACA exchange and Reconciliation Bill changes, 48%anticipate a larger impact of 50+ bps, with 8% seeing headwinds exceeding 150bps. Labor remains a headwind to growth, flat vs Q1 On average, labor was a 1.4% headwind to volume, flat vs last quarter (1.4%). Professional fee growth slightly accelerated On avg, professional fees grew +2.8% y/y in 2Q26 vs +2.6% in Q1. Over the next 12months, the growth is expected to be +2.6% y/y vs +2.4% in our prior survey BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 22 to 24.12991106 Surveys show Q2 vols decelerate -90bps Q/QWe have typically found a correlation between our survey results and adjusted admission growth; and in the cases where the results are not spot-on, they generally aredirectionally correct, so we usually take the survey results and make an adjustment topredict publicly traded hospital volumes for the coming quarter. Using the 2Q26 data, our survey shows inpatient volumes were +2.4% in 2Q26, slightlydecelerating from +2.5% in 1Q26. Meanwhile, outpatient visits decelerated to +2.8% inQ2 from +4.4% in Q1. Overall, this yields an average 2Q26 survey volume of +2.6%,about -90bps below Q1. Looking to 2Q26, if we assume hospital companies’volumes decelerate -90bps Q/Q asimplied by our surveys, this would imply volumes in 2Q26 of +0.4% (vs +1.3% averagefor HCA, THC, UHS’s Acute, and ARDT in 1Q26). Below we show what we forecast adjusted admissions would be in the upcoming quartervs what companies actually reported. Note: we switched survey data vendors. 2017 and onward reflect results from the newvendor. With Q4 2025 we also moved to a quarterly survey, so historical monthly surveyshave been averaged to restated as quarterly data. We made no adjustments to ourhistorical data; therefore, historical comparisons in this time frame may be skewed bydifferences in underlying populations surveyed. Hospital company adjusted admission growth versus implied vols based on our survey Company takeaways from surveyIn order to look at the exposure of each company to inpatient volume trends, we categorized states into four categories: 1) positive volume trends (+0.5% averagevolume growth or higher), 2) flat volume trends (avg.